Hurricane Harbor: 80MPH Moving NORTH at 14 MPH....Hurricane Idalia Approaching Florida. Moving FASTER... Get it Done Now. Wind Probabilities from Montgomery AL to Maryland. Impacts Far From EYE and Center of Cone.

Data above is from Bryan Norcross.

Links at the bottom

Hurricaneintel.com

Rather than the CONE.

Showing you how wide an area...

..is now under watches and warnings.

Unapologetic fan of Mike

SpaghettiModels

Great grid.

Cone and radar.

So let's talk Idalia.

This image scares people.

It's real but it's hard to undestand.

It looks like it's already N of Tampa to some.

To others it looks like it's down by Cuba.

Earthnull shows where the eye is now.

Everything else is storms out ahead of it.

Clouds in the Northern GOM

A weather cam from Key West on Windy.com

Perks of subscribing.

Been there when it's like that.

Love it.

I'll be honest, I'm very into data, I love maps and it's important to look and understand the data vs what you hear on social media. I have had more calls this morning from people across a wide area from Alabama to Naples insisting some local person told them online that it's turning right, it's turning more to the West and their WhatsApp group says.... They look at the visible picture they see on most sites and all they see is this huge hurricane, now moving very fast as forecast, and they are terrified. Probably because people use words online also such as "terrifying intensification" and I'll be honest it is strengthening as we have said for days it would but it is not yet... not yet... at rapid intensification. If you want to call RI "terrifying" fine, but not forecast intensification.

As a hurricane strengthens, not only does it get stronger but usually it grows in girth as if all it's eating is pasta with cheese sauce all day.

RED PINKS HEAVY MOISTURE

TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAIN

You can see the eye now.

Idalia is where the Barbie Pink is...

This is Idalia N of the tip of Cuba.

Out ahead of Idalia is it's calling card.

It's letting you know it's coming.

Why I said prepare yesterday...

...better before the squalls come in.

Nothing like trying to put plywood up..

..in a sudden squall.

And below Idalia is a tail.

That tail is going to pull up moisture ...

...for a long while after it's gone.

Image below is for the next 5 DAYS

From NHC

This is RAINFALL.

Flood potential.

This leads to my next point.

This is not just about Florida.

Mike is on live til 11 AM he says.

He's watching models.

As he says don't focus on the EYE

Focus on the DIRTY SIDE

East Side far from eye.

FROM 2 DAYS AGO.

I said....

at some point its taking off like a rocket.,

TODAY CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP

It's on the move.

Moving up towards Florida Landfall.

In 24 Hours it's forecast to be 120 MPH

Category 3

That you can say is terrifying.

But we've been saying it will for a while.

This is what NHC says in Discussion.

They have left the door open for adjustments.

Small adjustments to track.

Nudging left or right.

East or West.

Or not.

Stay tuned.

If you live in Cedar Key or on Alligator Point or Tampa or Clearwater you should have already boarded up, gotten what you needed and are ready to hunker down or you are on the road headed inland somewhere safe. In Jacksonville Florida (has a hurricane warning) you should be doing that now, now is the time as it'll move faster and faster according to forecast and you will have less time to put your plans into action, this is coming, as they said in Andrew ...this is coming, deal with it.

And, it's not about Florida as St. Mary's Georgia could have sustained hurricane force winds. Irma ripped up their dock bad, it's been rebuilt; it's one of my favorite places in the world... honest. I shouldn't say that, most people don't know about it. Charleston will have an offshore or onshone Hurricane... as will Wilmington NC near me should be experiencing a fast moving Idalia offshore with impacts. Even Atlanta is warned for strong winds and storms and strong winds North of the Lake in Florida it's hardwoods and hardwoods snap, crashing into homes. Pines snap. Oaks break. This not a Miami hurricane, it's a Florida hurricane but a North Florida Hurricane and yet it'll impact most of Florida with an increased risk of tornados, squalls and gusty winds in wild rainbands far from the eye of Idalia.

Scroll thru the wind probs for Idalia.

Maryland to Montgomery Alabama.

May be minor winds but

if a Oak falls on your house.

Those were huge wind probs you ignored.

Don't ignore the wind probs.

Impacts FAR FROM THE EYE

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   4(29)   1(30)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   2(36)   1(37)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  27(34)   2(36)   1(37)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  26(39)   1(40)   X(40)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  27(49)   1(50)   X(50)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   7(20)   X(20)   1(21)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)  20(49)   1(50)   X(50)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)  19(54)   X(54)   X(54)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)  13(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)  12(12)  50(62)   7(69)   X(69)   X(69)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)  23(23)  50(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  47(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   5( 5)  66(71)  14(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)  23(23)  21(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   2( 2)  58(60)  17(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)  20(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   6( 6)  65(71)  12(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)  20(20)  14(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   3( 3)  61(64)  12(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X  12(12)  73(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   1( 1)  32(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   5( 5)  30(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

THE VILLAGES   34  1  20(21)  48(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  1   8( 9)  23(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  1  11(12)  23(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

PATRICK AFB    34  1  11(12)  24(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)

FT PIERCE FL   34  1   8( 9)  11(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)

W PALM BEACH   34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MIAMI FL       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MARATHON FL    34  3   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

KEY WEST FL    34  8   8(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

NAPLES FL      34  4  38(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
NAPLES FL      50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  2  24(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

VENICE FL      34  3  78(81)   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
VENICE FL      50  X  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
VENICE FL      64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TAMPA FL       34  2  77(79)  12(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
TAMPA FL       50  X  16(16)  16(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
TAMPA FL       64  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  2  65(67)  30(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X  12(12)  66(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   2( 2)  44(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   7( 7)  46(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   1( 1)  21(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST MARKS FL    34  X  11(11)  53(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

APALACHICOLA   34  1  36(37)  28(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   6( 6)  17(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  2  66(68)  13(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X  22(22)  18(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   8( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X  15(15)  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

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