Your Tuesday is My Monday... A Look at the Tropics. Currently Sleepy, Boring and Snoozy VS Newsy. Meh Systems Today.. Down the Road Definite Maybes and Carib Blob

I really should have started with the Carib Blob but it's only a blob right? Well, yes but it's slamming our friends in the Caribbean with flooding rains creating some misery down that way and it's definitely Blobby Weather Drama with it so it's worth mentioning off the bat. Kind of cool feature, has curvature and if you are desperate the look of banding. It's purple blobby on the map that I show when there is no yellow lemon, which is good because seriously I'd prefer grapes or blackberries to lemons, wouldn't you?

NHC main page below.

They did go long on discussion rain down there.

Caribbean Tropical Wave

 Convection... etc. 

I call that weather.

As for the official NHC News

2 PM

90% on Rina forming close to Philippe.

Y'all have to excuse me because my Tuesday is kind of like your Monday making this a short week for me. I was offline yesterday for Yom Kippur (which is kind of an intense holiday) and the day before helping get ready for it and doing things related to it and now I'm in recovery mode as it feels as if I've been offline for 3 days, not just one. For those of you who have followed me over the years you know I get quiet during the holidays for me often ....well unless there's something big going on. There is nothing big going on in the tropics today. Two systems forecast to be rinse and repeat recurvatures with always the slight possibility that one escapes from the pack and makes a run for the Islands or the SE Coast. Nothing shows up coming from the Caribbean Blob but we do see something forming again close in similar to Ophelia and that could come from the general surge of energy coming up from the Carib down the road, especially if a weak front makes it down towards Florida and goes flat as they often do the last days of September and into early October. 

Water vapor shows the surge below.

It's a pulsation of moisture.. surging.

And it's not going away so fast.

So stay tuned.

As for Philippe and Rina... (in the wings at 90%)

As for the models we are starting with the CMC because it has been kicked around often and yet has often out performed the Euro and GFS, tho maybe not the Icon. On any given day a model latches on to something, it's your job to figure out what that is and what the end game is when something develops somewhere .... it's generally not exactly what you think but it's showing something between the highs and lows and isobars in between.

Another Carolina Blob/Low on last day.

Hmnn

Rina Philippe drama. Loop below.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2023092600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

There's only so much tropical energy and neither systems look fantastic out of the gate. One will outshine the other, one may get further West as it's pushed around by the other and then they both end up in you know where ....with the new system that forms out of nowhere or possibly somewhere that no one was looking as everyone was distracted by Rina and Phillipe. If Rina gets named and it should as they are already at 90% Red.

Euro shows Rina outshining Philippe.

Oh could that allow Philippe to come back...

...closer in? Hmnn

As for the GFS below.

Best not to drink coffee and run the GFS.

 GFS...stopping the loop here.

Just off OBX something pops up.

Remember that.

Weak Philippe... Hungry Rina

Then there's 2...or 3

Weak P STRONG Rina

I know none of us trust it...

...but we all have to watch.

I'm just gonna go with... what the hell?

It's a Picasso psychology test... 

..where is your mind?

Ya... GFS likes Rina.

Icon above shows weak Philippe IN the Islands.

Or just to the N and Rina strong.

That's about it for me today. Rina looks to be a player, I have a friend named Rina my money is on that one! Philippe (2 Ps 1 L) could be a player depending on how valid these models are and if they verify.  We have nice pleasant weather in the Carolinas, not too hot, not too cold. Cannot wait for it to be "too cold" but time will tell on that as we are at that part of the Hurricane Season where it looks fairly dead but it's probably just playing Possum as October almost always produces something huge, threatening and hope the chasers such as Josh (iCyclone) have something meaty like good steak to chase because not much into Impossible Burgers even if I can put cheese on them making "kosher cheeseburgers" but I'd rather use real meat and fake cheese for that. I'm not very into fake if you have noticed, tho I can appreciate weather even if it is a weak Tropical Storm rocking my world in Raleigh as few get far enough West to have Tropical Storm Force gusts and we did in my part of Raleigh ...one of those big cities that stretches out into various directions and as it's hilly here depending on what street you live you might get an inch more rain than a friend not so far away and stronger winds or no wind. I got wind, I got rain and I'm happy. Hoping for more but it was a tropical smile in my book as I dream on snow and possibly a storm a storm at the beach.

I'll update tomorrow on the ongoing Tropical Soap Opear of the GFS and in reality talking on what is happening in real time as that Caribbean Surge IS producing WEATHER and that's what it's all about in my book.  Being in the eye of a hurricane is awesome, hard to even explain and I'll just say it's one of nature's true wonders that all the violent, wild winds suddenly stop and you can hear a bird suddenly chirping in the quiet while you wait for the wicked, back side of the storm to suddenly appear and I do mean suddenly. If you're lucky it's a long eye in a slow moving storm so you can really enjoy it!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps I truy, madly, deeply love weather :)