Hurricane Harbor: Updated 11PM Philippe Makes Landfall ........................Philippe Only Storm Left... And Philippe Not Following Forecast. TS Warnings UP for Islands. NHC Says Should Turn... Soon... Not Soon Enough.......

Philippe made landfall.

Who saw that coming?

As I said earlier he wasn't following the forecast.

And while the NHC tracks the "CENTER"

The Key Message below is lacking.

Weather is occuring over a wide area.

Not just the top 2 islands.

Where the "center" is....

...its a TS and it's creating weather.

Flooding in places that flood.

Strong winds.

A whole lot of tropical weather.

Not where it was supposed to be.

Because it didn't make the turn.

Sheared, weak and moving towards Islands.

Regarding models:

You kind of live or die by them.

You win or you lose.

I get so tired of long discussion "splaining" the models....... because most people reading discussion already know what the models show as they are weather obsessed or work in the Industry but they go on "splaining" as my brother used to say "stop Splaning Lucy!" (old joke) and seriously when models aren't handling a storm well explain the synoptics, the possibilities and the problems of getting a good handle on Philippe.

I get conceptually it would eventually turn but it wasn't turning yet obviously. And, it may down the road. Philippe has always done what it wanted to do and early discussion waxed poetic on it fading away as Rina would blow it away and Rina took too long to form and everything in life is timing yet they couldn't let go. Forecasts are meant to be verified, I get it but sometimes they bust. This was a bust and it was only a Tropical Storm going through the Islands and at this point IF it makes that turn and the shear relaxes wouldn't that take it up over PR/VI etc and I'm talking IF.... when fish smells bad it's time to toss it in the garbage rather than taking a chance.

In a mood. I'm going to just watch Philippe and see what he does and adjust in real time. Yup, you live or you die by the models in meteorology if you are locked into them and don't see other possibilities,.

Current Cone shows it makes the turn, maybe but it didn't back when it was forecast and I'll remember Philippe as the storm that broke the model of the Preprogrammed Stephord Wives Crap Tropical Storms this season. Sorry, true. It's a book you can read it.

The Cone is for the Center.

Sometimes the Center is naked....

..and all the colorful weather is to the South.

If you're worried about Phillipe coming to FL

Or Carolinas....

There are cold fronts.

Rows of cold fronts lined up.

Coming in for a landing.

It'll catch one eventually... if it lives that long.

So we only need to worry....

...should a system get down into the Carib.

That could try and ride a front.

Philippe is forecast to eventually go N Old Man...

(seems like forever doesn't it?)

Sweet Dreams are made of these...

Keep reading from this morning if you haven't.

And...thanks for reading my blog!

Philippe, last named storm standing.

And Philippe is misbehaving.

Seems not to want to follow the forecast.

Oops.

This was the NRL map an hour ago.

Watching satellite loops didn't see it happening.

Not so perfectly but hey I'm not the NHC

The shear I get.

Rina is gone.

Down to Philippe

Headed into the Islands it seems.

Tropical Storm Warnings

Moving "erratically" ....

Oops.

I guess the models were wrong.

"Center fixes and 1-min visible imagery during the morning indicate

that Philippe is moving erratically to the west-northwest (300
degrees) at 6 kt.  The short-term part of track forecast is adjusted
westward to match recent satellite trends, which necessitates the
Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda."