Updated 3 PM FRED 65 MPH Making Landfall Port San Blas - Trio of Tropical Trouble. Fred Edges Towards Landfall in Fl Panhandle. Grace Took the Low Road... Skimming Hispaniola Trying to Miss Cuba & Jamaica. TD8 Looping off the East Coast.

 

iCyclone is there in Port St. Joe.

You can see the flooding in this picture.

Low lying, prone to flooding easy.

Very little wind so far...

Landfall 

Map below.

Peaceful beaches.

Stormy beach today.

It's also a beach that dealt with Hurricane Michael.

They've seen worse... 

...we could see worse later in the season.

Something to think on...

Radar presentation as Fred moves towards landfall.

2 PM

Basically big news is Fred is now 60 MPH.

NHC holds intensity there.

We will see.

Again... strongest weather to the right of center.

This is where Fred is going to make landfall.

Shallow bays, inlets, beaches.

Barrier Islands.

Not very populated but populated enough.

Will update at 5 PM.

 Oh and TD 8 is close to TS strength....

* * * 

Nothing says busy better than this graphic.

3 systems that the NHC is tracking.

Minimal systems but yes three.

It's not about which beach gets "landfall"

Everything to the right of landfall gets impacts.

Keep that in mind.

Going to try and keep this short this morning. I'll update later this afternoon as changes occur in real time, but despite all the drama of the 3 Ring Circus in the tropics there is not much to write about just now.

Fred is doing what Fred does and he's a very long tracker and never underestimate the damage they can do at landfall even as a Tropical Storm. There's something about the way tropical storms making landfall in the Florida Panhandle fill up the curve of the coastline and fill the cradle with convection, wind, some minor beach erosion and flooding of low lying roads. You are thinking "come on it's a crappy tropical storm" and that may be true but that part of the Florida coast has barrier islands with beautiful beaches and very low elevation and coastal roads flood out. This happens in the Outer Banks sometimes where the usual roads have temporary issues. That part of Florida actually looks more like Carolina beaches than Florida beaches from the way they feel when the wind blows and the way the homes are built... often high up on stilts because they are prone to flooding.

Those are the tracks.

Fred is pretty much a done deal.

Strong TS on landfall.

I wanna say ... flirting with hurricane strength.

But hard to figure Fred so... 

...just beware.

It's all about the rain and flooding not wind with this one!

As for Grace she took the low road.

I knew she would.

I told you she would.

I could see her clipping the bottom of Hispniola.

If you read the blog yesterday you will remember I said Grace would take the bottom of the NHC cone and basically the NHC keeps edging thier cone South frequently. She pretty much misses Cuba, crosses the area devastated by the strong Earthquake. The death toll has hit 1,300 and it will sadly climb and any delay in trying to find survivors due to a mediocre tropical depression is truly heartbreaking. I try not to get negative here but when it rains it pours and Mother Nature is doing a mean job on Hispaniola this year. As it stays over the water, grazes the North coast of Jamaica and apparently it learned from big brother Fred to stay away from land and continue on with it's sea cruise.  Currently it's aiming for the Yucatan Channel and Mexico. I would not take Texas off the table as we have only just begun to deal with Grace 2.0 in the way we are dealing with Fred 2.0 and now we have the future Henri off the coast of the East Coast doing loops out in the ocean. Not your typical year and yes busy but busy with storms that most of my friends wouldn't chase unless they are trying out their new truck and taking it on the road. 

TD 8

I'll talk on the ever changing models this afternoon and update with important data.  The only real information you need now is IF you live in the Florida Panhandle or in the cone of rain that is forecast to spread way inland from Fred you need to pay attention to local updates. Fred can be a huge problem far inland when the elevation of the land rises and there are frequent dips and well that's why a small tropical depression clipping a part of Hispaniola or regions in Puerto Rico can cause flash flooding. The wind may not be there but the rain is steady and heavy and elevation amps up the rain totals.

Please refer to this excellent product from the NHC/NWS that shows where the potential for Flash Flooding is because it's the worst and most deadly form of flooding.  

Stay informed on the storm if you are in the path of Fred. 

As for Grace she may become a stronger problem down the road if 2.0 pulls it together.

And TD8 possibly Henri soon spin in a huge circle in the Atlantic in theory out at sea. 

I've been waiting for the IDA storm all season and we are there faster than expected due to the bevy of short lived weak systems that have cluttered up the hurricane maps but don't judge the judge future storms by these weak storms of June July and early August and never forget and always remember it's a whole new game in September!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps if you have not read yesterday's blog please do as much of it verified and explained the process behind what is going on today! Thanks for reading!