Cat 3 -115 MPH Hurricane Delta Consolidates in the Gulf of Mexico, Forecast to be a Major by the NHC Prior to Landfall. Should Be Weaker at Landfall They Say... Now is the Time for Action!
Category 3 Delta, currently intensifying.
Wind Intensity from the 5 PM
This is heartbreaking for this area.
People are preparing in homes with blue tarps on them.
Miami went through this in 2005.
Patterns set up over the short term ...
...and everything travels the same track.
The GOM coast has been ground zero ....
.. will the East Coast get another storm?
Maybe, perhaps.
Can't say it ain't so but it's got a long way to go...
As for Delta.......
....took up the whole Gulf of Mexico.
Beautiful and dangerous.
Recon finding lower pressures consistently and stronger winds at flight level, however they need to work themselves down to the surface and it is possible they will at the rate things are going this afternoon. Tomorrow at this time the impacts will be felt, we will know how strong it is in reality at landfall vs current forecasts and Louisiana will be hit with yet another hurricane, possibly a Major Hurricane at landfall. The forecast for one area in the cone is below, I can't sugar coat this and it will be what it is with various small variations in track and intensity.
Hurricane coming....
...prayers for those in the path of Delta.
Keep reading... see how it all unfolded today.
Another good view of this year is above.
11 AM Cone.
Up close and personal ..compare and contrast.
Smallest nudge to the left. Miniscule.
Area inside cone for landfall.
There are cities in the path of the eye.
Here's a link to the wildlife refuge refeenced often.
Storm Chasers beware!
The second thing is that as it grows in intensity it's windfield spreads out and it's impacts could be felt across a somewhat wider area, but the forecast discussion has gone over that and local authorities should be making that clear but it's worth remembering.
Good discussion from NHC.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/081454.shtml A lot of detail on the possible or should I say probable landfall close to a Wildlife Refuge that has seen tropical systems this year already as well as various impacts and details that are important, so I suggest you read and pass it along to anyone in that direct area. Yes, a hint of an eye indeed as they said.
105 MPH!
I'll be back after the next set of models run.
This is really the end game and time to prepare.
Everything written 2 hours ago still holds.
Pease read below and prepare if you are in the Cone.
* * *
Close up of the area under the gun.
In the End Zone for Delta.
Yes it's delta country.
Bayou. Marsh. Low Country.
Small towns along the coast.
We've been to this rodeo before this year.
Models from Spaghetti Models above.
Kind of set in stone...
It intensifies then weakens.
Hopefully before landfall.
100 MPH at 8 AM
Things to think on....
The lay of the shelf out in front of the coast and the cooler temperatures in October shouldn't support a high end storm and the shear from the nearness of the trof should also buffer it a bit and keep it's intensity down. Being honest though, this has been an odd storm in that the track has been easy to predict as it literally showed us where it was going to go for days however intensity has been a wild card. So prepare for it to be strong, hope and pray it's weaker and do what you got to do. And, even though this looks like one homogeneous region along the Louisiana coast, in truth some areas have more marsh or less, more elevation or less.. it's a beautiful area to drive through and feel the breeze, the smell and trust me it's a smell that is similar to some areas in North Carolina when you walk along the Bogue or a Sound or whatever name you use locally to call a bay like area. But it's low country and I love low country especially the area around New Iberia where shrimp boats sit along the coast and people are friendly and well it's just beautiful in it's way.
As for intensity, remember it is forecast to intensify up to a Major from the NHC and I'm pretty sure it will get there one way or the other, but this is not forecast to be a strong Major Hurricane at landfall. My issue with this storm is it has an uneven history of intensification and then losing it so it's all in timing how strong it really is at the moment of landfall; storm surge will be there but it is not currently forecast to be anywhere near Sally. Remember there are many intangibles with regard to a landfalling hurricane so be aware of the dangers in your specific area and that's why I always say pay attention to your local experts as they know your specific dangers best.
The main point from the NHC discussion regarding Hurricane Delta is that their cone has not changed, the logic behind the approach to the coast and the bend back in towards Louisiana's coastline seems solid based on models and an upper air alignment of winds that are creating a uniform steering current for Delta expected to peak out on approach but before landfall. So I'm not showing the NHC iconic cone as much as the earliest arrival of winds one as it's more releavant across a wider area as many areas will get impacts from Delta outside the eye (if we see an eye) and the center of the track.
"NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one"
NHC site has so many options.
Learn to use them.
It's valuable and explains much.
Strength of wind in your area.
You can turn on earliest arrival of wind.
The purple is obviously the hurricane winds.
The center line is the track.
Below is the map without the bling.
When you click on the map...
...it tells you your specific warnings.
NHC worked hard on this.
Use it please.
You can zoom all the way in to your street!
A good product, not used enough.
My thoughts in video.
I just want to say that the reason I obsess on the eye is that it is not normal for a storm of this size and with it's history of intensity to not show an eye on a regular basis. It's nice to say "it's there, it's small" feel free to look back through the archives of the NHC Discussion and they obsessed on explaining it almost defensively for several advisories even saying that the recon could not find a closed eye even they sounded perplexed and they are the experts. It had one a while back that was covered by cirrus but there was little shear and it should have been more visible on a variety of ways we look for an eye. Why? I don't know but I'll say that the reason it weakened rapidly was that something was wrong inside it's center even though it was strong. I don't like invariables that can't be explained other than saying "but cirrus' because when recon says the eye wall is not closed and cannot be found it wasn't there. It had a center, that said it has one heck of a center but not a visible eye. That was then, this is now.
So where does this leave us? If you are inside that cone prepare time is over and we have now moved on to action, later you can do show and tell. This is the time to act and if you are in a safe place and your local authorities say it's okay to stay then hunker down, if not get out of town. Prepare for long power outages and in an area already filled with people trying to put parts of Louisiana back together again you will have even more construction workers moving in trying to fix your roof, get tid of the mold that grows in that neck of the wood while it's still raining and it will take an army of construction workers to put everything back together again. And, life will go on.... but it will especially go on if you take the proper precautions. Also keep in mind the obvious, wear protective gear, keep your mask on and keep an extra one in your purse or pocket because we still have a pandemic going on and that's the only thing that has not been cancelled this year so deal with it.
I'll update later today. Take care, be well, be safe and be cautious. If you aren't in the cone but like "just next to the cone" watch this storm carefully, because weather is fluid and even cones that are set in stone sometimes have a small surprise come along that you didn't see coming.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:34 AM
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