MAJOR Hurricane Delta ----First Comes Yucatan Then Louisiana .... Hurricane History 1893 October Louisiana Hurricane.

11 PM

Intense hurricane.

DELTA

Lacks an eye but packs a punch.

Developing story in real time.

The picture is from @icyclone.

He is where the star is...

...he adjusts sometimes to the storm itself.

Tomorrow it's all about DELTA

And the Yucatan.

Below is another odd image.

Looks like Running Man ..

...or some beast with a fire in it's belly.

Delta is one of the strangest looking Majors.

Windspeed dropped recently to 130 MPH.

Barometeric Pressure up.

Still no eye despite a strong center.

It looks like a huge blob on steroids.

Can't remember when I saw a signature like this.

Never the less...

...it's about to hit the Yucatan.

Kind of clips the tip of the Yucatan.

Moves up into the Gulf of Mexico.

Then Louisiana "ish"

The NHC lowered it's expectations since 5 PM.

Also the discussion talks on the eye less issues.

This lack of a visible eye over the entire day is odd.

Sometimes they open up, close, then open.

But this really has been strange.

A 145 MPH Cane with no eye.

I can't explain it ...I could try.

It just is what it is.

Now it isn't.

Down in intensity to 130.

Models.

All the talk at 5 PM on pulling right.

Tracks trended left on next run.

I really want to talk on two things tonight. One is that this is a very small compact hurricane with a small compact core and they are capable of ramping up like crazy and then suddenly weakening oddly and then ramping up again when the time is right. It's very common that small core storms have fast variations in intensity. Also models often have problems handling them and pinpointing forecast intensity so it's best to stay with an overall plan and watch the storm vs the models. Moving intensity up and down with this happening leads to Sally rapidly intensifying when they had previously said it would (before taking it out of the forecast) then trying to play catch up at 2 AM trying to rewrite a new intensity forecast as it kept rapidly intensifiying. Time will tell we are still not great with forecasting rapid intensifying and more so forecasting when it immediately stops.

Next is models. On earlier runs today there was talk of models trending West and suddenly there was talk of Sabine River area on the border of Texas and Louisiana (kind of like Sally and Laura) and then....the next model runs trended right if at all and now what?  It's down by the Yucatan and we are waiting for the high to erode and a trough to show up and we know it's there and it can ramp up again over night or not. Let's all breathe, go slow with changes and prepare for it being in the area of the Northern Gulf of Mexico and if you need to go from preparing to act fast. 

Pay attention to local experts and the updates from the NHC and know sometimes while you are sleeping when you go to sleep at 11 PM with a weaker hurricane ...while you are sleeping it could become a Major Hurricane while you are sleeping. I'll say that again. As good as we get hurricanes change often based on inner structure, shear appearing or a change in the steering currents. 

Embrace change and the knowledge that as good as we are ... we aren't perfect yet.

It's hurricane season... and you live on the coast of hurricane country... always be prepared.

If Cantore comes to town you know you are in it. If iCyclone comes to town you may want to hit the road and get out of town fast Jack and don't look back!  Teasing, but probably true.

I'll update in the morning, keep reading to see the progression of the rapid intensification of Delta.

And in the world of 2020 my daughter has friends who went to Cancun for a holiday and they can't get out of Cancun because Delta cancelled their flights out because Hurricane Delta was coming and they are hunkering down sending pictures online from Cancun. Really you cannot make this year up. I doubled checked their flights in and out of Cancun are on hold... because of Delta coming.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

5 PM

Currently 145 MPH WINDS.

Forecast to be 155 MPH ....

Cone Basically the Same.

Short Term Problem is the Yucatan.

Then comes most likely Louisiana.

Eyeless.... No 2nd Eye Wall.

Small, tight inner core.

Strange to see but seems to work for Delta.

Otherwordly almost.

Record Rapid Intensification.

Similar to Wilma.... but different.

An Eye but clouded over.

Looks like a blob.

It's not a blob.

It's a Cat 4 that could go Cat 5.

The truth is while it's small now.

It could grow big in the GOM.

The wind field will expand.

This is a very dangerous hurricane.

Small pin like eye somewhere in there.

For now watch it.

Prepare if you are in the cone.

Or near the cone.

As we have seen this year cones move..

Stay tuned.

I had a family matter to deal with today.

So didn't get to update as much as I wanted.

Just life... a friend died.

He'd been ill with cancer.

And it's sad.

A very good man.

Zoom funerals... u can't hug anyone.

But that's we how share in 2020.

So I may update tonight.

But in truth there isn't much to say.

The show is basically going on...

...watch and study it.

Rapid Intensification.

Totally different end game.

Note also Wilma's track above.

Similar with a dip to the SW briefly.

Not a hurricane anyone wants...

...to have make landfall.

Especially if it hits an area already hit by Laura.

And that is very possible.

Prayers for those in it's track.

Pleading for you to PREPARE.

Take it seriously in a life and death way.

More later...

...read the blog below if you have not done so.

Thanks.

 

From 8 AM...

8 AM

110 MPH Winds.

Aimed at the Yucatan.

Then moves UP into the GOM.

Where does it make landfall??

That's the difficult question.

Excellent App.

@hurrtrackerapp 

Hurricane Tracker App.

Really easy to use ....

...easier to focus on details.

Too easy to get lost on the web..

But look at that spread.

The Cone of 2020.

Forecast by NHC to be STRONG.

This is not a kid on Twitter...

...this is from the NHC

NHC directors says prepare for a Cat higher!

So basically keep Cat 5 in mind....

I'm going to update the blog in depth later.

Around lunchtime.

After the 11 AM and more models run.

Data from recon is important.

Nothing like those dropsondes...trust me.

So quickly let's look at hurricane history.

Cheniere Caminada Louisiana.

Never heard of it?

2,000 people died there.

Once upon the time it was a place.

Ghost stories for October.

Familiar track for this year... but that was 1893.

A horrible year in hurricane history.

Eclipsed by other hurricanes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Cheniere_Caminada_hurricane A hurricane that would be a good analog storm ...wouldn't you think.. in both time of year, intensity and track history. Thankfully, we now can see hurricanes coming but back then they didn't just blow you away they wiped the town off the map. Dead men tell no tales and the history is pieced together by the few survivors. 

Today you can avoid this catastrophe and save your life! Your town may be hit by a destructive hurricane but because we have the NHC we have the ability to warn you it's coming before it even leaves the Caribbean so if you're in the cone and your local authorities tell you to evacuate or just hunker down safely then okay but know that power will be out for quite a while and the supply chain will be gone with the wind so you do what you gotta do to either get out of Dodge or make it through the weeks after the storm without power.  We can hope for shear to appear but if it maintains a fast speed and on stays on it's current track forecast shear would be a welcome surprise. 

And, it's hard for me to believe this doesn't come in a bit East of the current track but then again I've got questions on the strength and timing of the front that will help move it along so deal with the reality of October but know that it's called an October Surprise for a reason. We are currently looking at a forecast Category 4 and I'm pretty sure the NHC won't be slow to up this to Cat 5 if the situation warrants.

I'll be back with an update later.

Mike is on at 9:19 AM on Facebook Live with more info than you can properly absorb but he makes it fun but I've got an appointment so I'll have to watch the rerun of it later.  www.spaghettimodels.com

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

A look at 1893 a hurricane season we don't want to see again for a long while.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R058yjOeibE

As for a song.............  currently it's this one but I'll be looking for a Mississippi one later.