80% Red Invest 91L in Carib . Watching 2nd Wave & a Nice Wave Off of Africa But It's OCTOBER... Getting to be All Over ... Over There. Video from Jim Williams HurricaneCity From SALLY

Discussion goes long from the NHC.

80% on formation.

Late night update.

Higher odds for Caribbean development.

Models offer many solutions.

First all West...

...then some flip back up to the N.

Center needs to form still...

Lastly vorticity charts show possibilities.

More than just this area...

We'll see in the morning....

.... recon will see.

NHC will see.

See you on Friday...

Just a late Thursday night update here.

Below is from 10 AM Thursday

Invest 91 - Our Caribbean System.

Recon goes in and we will see what they find.

Wide view of the Basin.

Yes I know a wave off of Africa. I see it.

But a long shot to get across the pond.

It's a nice wave tho... 

And Center Ring is our Westbound Wave.

Front draped across Florida. Not leaving.

Close of #91L below from Zoom Earth.

Note the rainfall graphic for the next 5 days.

Screams Stationary Front!!

The truth is this is what we get in October, a cold front dips halfway down through Florida and then sets up residence or extends it's stay a bit and just hangs there bringing rain to whichever part of Florida it's raining in that day or everywhere... it doesn't go anywhere, it just rains. Depending on where a center sets up in this Caribbean system tells the story as to whether it has a chance of getting a name and some fame or it's just wandering around as a weak depression looking for a place to drop anchor before either disappaiting or after reviewing it's travel plans tries to go somewhere.  

See how each front stops at the same place....

Models are all over the place on different runs and some develop it, others ignore it and many just kind of lose it in the BOC. Understand another front is going to come down across North Florida, cool us off in the Carolinas and then after reading the Yelp review from the previous front that stayed a while at that same place this one writes a nice review for the next front. As we get closer to Halloween some front will go BOO! and move down into the Miami area where everyone will break out their boots and cute winter clothes for a night on the town or in this case probably just to Publix to shopping and hang out a bit.

Storms go with strong fronts, they hang back when they start out too far South to really make the jump from the Caribbean towards Florida. Lower systems can crawl towards Mexico and do an extended stay on the Yucatan or they just wait for that moment to do something.

The issue today is compounded by the cute westbound wave that has a real sense of urgency to it and it could collide into our system or do it's own thing. Ain't October grand? I like it in ways, September was always historically a hard time for me and I usually get my groove back in October so hoping for better days this month and I might break out the space heater soon.

So recon going in, models are beginning to run. Many good models don't see development from 91L but others do and imagine it can easily become a Tropical Depression as it's over warm water with low shear and it's favored by CLIMO.  So I'll update later today when new models are run and we get more information from recon and other means of investigation as that is what an INVEST is all about, we are investigating the situation.

I want to show these two graphis above 

from www.spaghettimodels.com

Oddly we still have Saharan Dust. Rare this time of year.

Get those cameras ready for sunsets if it's not raining.

And check out the lightning... 

Lightning is always fun to watch.

Lots more on Mike's site so make sure u scroll thru!

And he updates it with Fall Color sites and Winter links.

Much Love... may you always find your groove and your safe space and know where you want to go when you decide to hit the road for a Fall Vacation!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com hit the road to chase Hurricane Sally this past September. He always does a great job, he's very data oriented and the details are important to him; he's less a showboater and more a hardcore chaser who has chased many storms over time. I know him well, he's a good guy and he knows his hurricanes well and when he decides to hit the road for a storm still looking "iffy" you know it's going to get it's act together because Jim doesn't chase trash just to say he's chasing if he chases something he has a darn good reason ;) Enjoy especially around 8:40 minutes in when things get crazy but if you don't watch from the beginning slowly you don't really get the idea of what Hurricane Sally was like from beginning to end. If you don't enjoy the calm before the storm you don't really appreciate the storm in all it's wild glory. And, as always he does show the aftermath and documents it while studying it for himself.