UPDATED 8 PM. HURRICANE DELTA - Major Hurricane Down the Road..........Greek Themed Tropical Soap Opera as Delta Insists Gamma Go on the Road... Kind of Like Luke and Laura? Time Will Tell...

 

Delta upgraded to Hurricane.

Gamma downgraded to TD

Recon found hurricane force winds in Delta.

That's what prompted the upgrade.

But discussion at 5 PM called for intensification.

Infact it's also expected to have Rapid Intensification.

Earliest time to see winds...

Lastly Earthnull signature is shown below.

With it's friend Gamma.

In truth this was expected as Delta was forecast to develop rapidly in the hot waters of the Caribbean Sea where there is currently a low shear environment and untapped fuel for intensification into a hurricane. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, depending on the timing and when shear will appear, it is possible it might weaken before landfall but we are way too far away from that to bank on it happening just yet. For now we will watch it and see what it's got but it does have classic sort of look where you can see how it can fill in, ramp up and get a classic intense look capable of becoming a Major Hurricane. As always time will tell but this is what we expected so far and we'll see tonight how fast it does indeed intensify.  

We've seen this track before.

How strong Delta gets....

...and how strong the awaited cold front it...

will tell the rest of the story.

And any shear or Upper Level Low that appears.

Stay tuned, any big change tonight I'll post at the top.

Now is the time to confirm your plans.

And be ready to put them into action.

This is that mean October Hurricane from the Carib..

...that I talked about for weeks.

More could develop but let's take it one at a time.

* * * * * 

Note the red blob is the Mid Level Center of Gamma.

Gamma is naked and hard to see here.

Below this Star Wars like figure is DELTA

This is all so 2020.

And Friday I kept saying:

"Watch the moisture from Delta move NE"

And it did... but it wasn't in the forecast.

As the forecast is about the center.

Now I wonder what could change with DELTA.

While New Orleans is currently in the center...

...note so are Gulfport and Biloxi.

Models from Tropical Tidbits.

Another view of this Deja Vu storm.

So let's go back to Zoom Earth.

105 MPH Hurricane... days away still.

What's left of Gamma goes along with Delta.

A Greek Tropical Soap Opera..

If you live in the path of this storm prepare now.

If it strengthens more than currently forecast...

...people could panic and getting out of town is a problem.

Know what your options are and prepare.

Eventually 2020 hurricane season will end.

I promise... when I'm not sure.

But winter comes eventually.

What kind of winter?

Hmnnnn.

This is my problem.

I'm not sold on the end game just yet.

Early on you have a plethora of fronts.

Later on things get wonky.

Definitely different on the 7th day.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html  Loop for yourself, something seems off and I'm not sure what exactly but I feel it. Today is a good day to see what #Delta really has on it's agenda and watch the flow because that's where storms go ...with the flow, away from the highs and towards the lows.

Going to post links to a few models below. CMC basically shows Delta saying to Gamma, "hey wanna do New Orleans... come on, join me, let's take a road trip!!" and by the way most all of the models show the same set up with a few variations. A fast moving Delta developing quickly reaches out... touches Gamma and what's left of Gamma hitches a ride. It's a classic road trip movie gone tropical to some of our favorite places with the possibility of a two landfall drama as the first landfall could be Louisiana and the second Mississippi. I'm always a bit hesitant when models agree so much early on as I'm pretty sure a shoe will drop down the road and I'm not talking about Cinderella's glass slipper. This is not a fairy tale but a real life meteorological drama that puts areas that already suffered a landfalling storm in play for a second landfall and that is what we call a pattern and patterns have repeated often this hurricane season.

I put the links to some of the models so you can see for yourself. 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2020100500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

EURO voticity mode...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2020100500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

How does that nursery rhyme go? And the cat ran away with the spoon........

A frame at landfall shown below. Every model pretty much does this. Odd to have agreement.

The ICON is always fun.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2020100512&fh=-12

End result is the cone the NHC has drawn with all eyes on the Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline while a heads up to places further left and to the right to watch just in case and if anything happens it's more likely to be to the right vs the left. We saw that recently with Sally and yet much depends on the upper air steering currents (fronts) on this scenario playing out exactly as the models have shown us they will.  Yes, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will pay close attention trust me, it's what they do no matter what the Cone shows.

More logical it will bend more to the right but will a strong front be strong enough and how strong will Delta be as it tries to make the movie Delta Dawn come to life in a magical, meteorological way. 

Time will tell.

Stay tuned, but if you are in the Cone at landfall, now is the time to put your plans into action and as always have a Plan B. From St. Mary's Parish to New Orleans to the very Delta of the Mississippi River to where Camille made landfall ... this is that sort of storm as things stand now and it is forecast to be a fast mover so you better be moving faster with your plans.

I don't want to rub sea salt into any wounds but the forecast with Gamma wasn't so fantastically spot on and a few forecasts have changed by more than a state or two this early out so pay close attention to any changes or trends.

I'll update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps I'll add a tune soon so check back later for music and for updates at the top.