Hurricane Delta After the Yucatan. How Strong? How Large? Which City Hosts Landfall & All the Chasers & Media? New Orleans? Cameron Parish?

 

11 AM

NW at 17 MPH

105 MPH Winds

Pressure 975 mb.

Leaving the Yucatan behind.

Where is it headed?

11 AM Cone below from NHC

This is the real story down the road.

So showed this cone above.

We can compare it at 11 PM.

Delta... where does it go?

Specifically.

Because details matter.

So where is it now?

Delta Dawn in Cancun.

Things we learn from Storm Chasers.

Josh... doing his thing.

Structure sound... light winds on back side.

Eye issue has always been a question.

Seems back side was also.

Reed Timmer discussing funneling of wind ...

...between tall buildings amping up the wind.

There was damage and destruction, especially as Gamma just traversed this area so anything loosened by the first weaker storm is blown in the wind by the stronger Delta. Reed's car issue showed that as a huge piece of wood was caught under the car for a bit, and he was debating on this video with another chaser Mike Theiss as to if the damage was from a small tornado or the funneling of the wind between tall buildings. Note the was no discussion on it being from Category 4 winds as Delta was no longer a Cat 4 and spared Cancun from a much more devastating hit though there is much to clean up. 

Oddly despite a nice structure vertically there has always been something off inside the center of Delta or an eye would have popped out winking at us here and there before closing over hidden at times by cirrus clouds. Yet, Delta kept it's eye to itself and was able as small hurricanes can do to ramp up wildly yesterday and then just as suddenly ramp back down... that's the trouble with small hurricanes. In the Caribbean, still after recently forming Delta was an over achiever with a small structure. But, once up into the Gulf of Mexico we should see Delta grow in size and put on a beautiful show and we will see that process beginning over the next 24 hours. There was dry air yesterday from the nearness of the High still nudging it to the left and an Upper Level Low near the High Pressure that is best scene on the Water Vapor Loop. That ULL basically tore apart the wave in the Eastern Caribbean and now it seems to have it sights on Delta but it's still quite far away and the high is between the two... still waiting for that high to weaken some forecast wise. Always some Upper Level Low drama these days in the tropics but we miss it usually as we focus close up on the center or eye of a storm on floaters. 

Delta is forecast to be much stronger in the Gulf of Mexico (NHC forecasts Major Hurricane Status again) now we look towards landfall and we wonder on wind impacts and of course storm surge. So that's my third picture today fron someone I listen to and you should too! He's reminding you and of course I remind you often that chasers watch for where the eye makes landfall, but to the EAST of the eye the storm surge is often the strongest. The Louisiana Delta is in danger, beautiful small towns and beaches that provide relief in the summer from the intense heat and humidity of inland places but very dangerous in a hurricane. New Orleans, always watching carefully as they are concerned with flooding in low lying areas and the always concerning levee system in Nola.

last night models     vs     this morning models

As for trends in the models they have trended a bit to the East, or rather a few of them. The GFS tends to over dramatize a frontal boundary and other models tend to take them with a lot of salt and caution.  The newer model is on the right showing a zeroing in on that part of the Louisana coastline, the cone from the NHC was pulled a bit further West out of consideration to those models that are leaning more to the West and yes this is Deja Vu 2020 where everything looks like it did a few weeks ago as we watched Laura approach the Louisiana coast worrying on Texas and then Sally where we watched Louisiana and it pulled a bit to the right closer to the Alabama/Florida border with a stronger front. 

Details matter so how strong this trough is once it develops in real time will tell the story. A stronger trough could shear it a bit on approach to land, a weaker one not so much shear and a deeper diving front pushing East would be more of a Sally hit whereas a weaker one is more of a Laura hit but in reality this will be in the end a DELTA HIT... it will hit where Delta makes landfall based on the actual steering currents vs the attempts by the models to pin it down. And know NOAA has been out there sampling the environment constantly so models will get better over time but for now everyone in the path of this storm should take precautions and listen to authorities and put plans into action as Delta is on it's way.

More later today. This is the basic gist of where we are now and where we are going down the road.

As always the NHC adjusts in real time and tries to narrow down the cone, currently the models show great agreement... it's always possible as we have seen from the very recent past that suddenly models begin to come apart from their most excellent agreement. Part of the drama of the science of forecasting a Hurricane especially in October where steering currents are often less carved in stone and more a source of speculation and percentages and when will we see the eye of Delta? It's a detail that matters as a strong eye shows us more about what is going on in a storm and a hidden eye shows us there are hidden problems going on not as visible but still there beneath the robust convection.

The convection and intensity we can see.

Even looks a bit like a hurricane symbol!

I'll update later today.

Have a wonderful, happy day!

Besos BobbiStorm

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Ps as for a song... hope you can see this.

Blogger update has been harsh.

Hope they update it back!

Some friends say they see it..

..others have said they can't.

Many of us loved this Johnny Nash song.

How could a weather person not love it?