Tropics Sunday... Like a Good Pool Game or Nascar Race... Lots of Moving Parts. GOM... to FL/GA Coast.. .Carolinas. Cold Fronts & Tropical Moisture Can Bring Trouble & Drama

Front with the cold clouds behind it.

EPAC busy bottom left.

GOM moisture below the strong high pressure.

Odd convection out in the Middle of the Atlantic.

These are the players.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

The link above is a 7 day loop that I show often in times where something is going to form but we aren't sure exactly what it will be. The loop is a good indication of where the weather is going and who is getting what though the details will be ironed out later in the week.

We see something in the GOM forming.

A Low closing off.

It travels East then ENE....

...ends up off the Carolina Georgia coast.

Still a closed low.

Everything in life and especially weather is timing.

Whether this gets named or not.

The result is strong weather and lots of rain.

In places that don't need more rain.

Texas gets more rain.

Does the bulk of the rain stay off shore?

Is it a frontal boundary?

A hybrid storm trying to form?

Still so many questions.

But the questions are on the table.

Not off the table.

Fronts are on the move.

Our MIMIC loop image shows that clearly.

Dry, cool air moving down, down, down.

Moisture trapped down in the GOM.

BOC area hanging in there.

Being fed from the EPAC side.

Hurricane in the bottom left corner.

Willa and Vincente juicing up the atmosphere.

Normally it wouldn't get into the BOC

But the flow is so fast ....

..the way Michael moved fast.

And it gets trapped under a strong high.

How strong is this cold front?

Strong.

Cranky put this map up.

More on him later.

Chick in NC pointing out how low this goes.

Into Georgia.

Frost alert.

Don't we sound like we are talking football?

Look at this graphic here below.

Cranky put it up.

The Tweet is below.

That's the line...

Last night I put this graphic up.

Nothing is exact at this point.

Except what the pattern has been.

Where things flow.

Where weather develops.

Mike explains this well.

So going with his graphic of the models.

Mischief of some kind develops.

Think of it as a meteorological mystery.

A low deepends off the East Coast.

Does it do it's thing?

Does it get a name?

Subtropical?

Hybrid?

NHC was handing those titles out often this year.

Or does it mix it up with another front diving down?

Maybe TWC will give it some exotic name?

Lots of hype and everyone's watching.

With or without a name...

I think people will be watching.

Cold fronts are great in October in Florida.

But you know what happens?

After a few days....

The cold front retreats north as a warm front.

Or it falls apart...

Then you have the tail end of a cold front....

... that could wrap into a Low Pressure area.

Then you have another cold front dipping down.

Yeah they go to the Homecoming Dance Together.

King and Queen of the Autumn Pageant.

Mixing it up together in an October dance..

This happens every once in a while.

But it's hard to actually make it happen.

It's easier in theory than execution.

It's a hot sexy dance not easy to do.

Easy to get a subtropical in June.

Easy to get a Nor'easter in January. 

But to watch systems work in tandem...

in late October not so easy.

My thoughts are it's possible.

Very possible to see something dramatic soon.

Not totally tropical but out of the tropics.

What will the NHC do as they make the call?

If this tries to play out.

Again it's all in the timing.

As for timing.

We still need to watch the deep Caribbean.

As we move towards November.

The cold fronts take a slight break.

Things warm up a bit .. maybe.

If the long range forecast is correct.

Then the door is open for a November named storm.

So there are two questions.

What is forming this week?

Will it get a name?

What could form in a few weeks.

November in busy years produces hurricanes.

They usually do not track far to the North.

But they can do some damage.

So we need to remember...

Yes Jack Frost is nipping in the air.

Pumpkin parties and State Fairs abound.

Football and Baseball are center stage.

But it's not over til it's over.

Do you remember November Hurricanes?

Answer from Google is below.

Sometimes the Atlantic gives us a November surprise.

Will this year end the way it began?

Time will tell.

Models are shown on www.spaghettimodels.com

www.windy.com fun to play with.... 

You think racing is just about driving fast?

Nah... it's complicated.

Lots of moving parts moving fast.

Like the weather.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me there for faster updates.

Oh and regarding the Carolina Panthers

:) #keeppounding