Tropics Wednesday Quiet. Models Suggest Possible Trouble in GOM Again BUT... Will It Get a Name? East Coast Storm But Subtropical or Hybrid or Just a Winter Storm?
A quick look at www.spaghettimodels.com shows it's quiet.
Quiet being a relative term.
Tropical wise there are no named storms.
No areas of yellow we are watching.
But we are watching long term models.
And we are watching the pattern.
Nothing there except a cold front...
...and odd convection traveling West under it.
Below shows more of the story.
That area is lit up like a firecracker along the Western rim of GOM
EPAC action has been explosive and as it's October...
...anything that forms there is more likely to make landfall.
Unlike in July it gets caught in the flow up and across the US.
That flow is bringing endless rains to Texas.
More on that later.
Our wave entering the Caribbean..
Small remains of 94L nearing BOC.
Most of 94L went West.
A bit of the energy broke off and headed NNW
There are two things to discuss today.
Only one is truly possibly tropical.
And the other is happening to our friends in Texas.
Texas gets slammed back by hurricanes often.
But this year they have had one No Name Storm after another.
This has led to excessive flooding.
Regular flooding and Flash Flooding as we saw yesterday.
They are not a stranger to these sorts of floods.
But with a busy EPAC moisture has found it's way there often.
They probably had more damage from No Name Storms...
...then E GOM had from weak tropical storms and subtropicals.
Prior to Cat 4 Michael that's what this season produced in GOM.
This is why we watch the pattern.
Not the one that produced Michael.
The pattern that produced Alberto and Gordon.
That pattern MIGHT produce another named storm.
Or a no name storm that lingers along the N GOM.
That's the EURO above.
Note Convection Convention in the GOM.
Massive Storm of some kind off E Coast.
GFS doesn't show much tho it has in the past.
So just keep watching.
Talking a week away...
What you notice currently is this below.
Or from last night.
The GOM was lit up with lightning.
Moving North and NNW
As long as that feed of fuel moves North.
You have to watch this region.
What concerns me here is that often a storm like this may bring much rain and some wind and IF if moves into an area like the Panhandle where what's left standing is weak and battered it can bring additional damage especially inland. Trees that looked like they were okay will come down fast and branches will go flying in the wind. After Hurricane Andrew my best friend's house seemed to have survived just fine on Miami Beach. A few weeks later.. possibly a month or so some strong "system" came in with strong winds and heavy rain and an East facing window upstairs blew out in that storm. It obviously was weakened and damaged some from Andrew in ways you couldn't see but after one strong squall line probably associated with a cold front it was gone with the wind.
Speaking of squalls... it is worth nothing a large coastal squall for lack of a more definitive word will set up along the Eastern Seaboard down the road but this "GOM system" makes an attempt at pulling itself together vs being "just rain" along the Northern Gulf of Mexico. So stayed tuned on that one.
In Texas there was flash flooding yesterday that was so severe it took out a bridge. That's from Flash Flooding NOT a Storm Surge being clear here but it shows the power of water in a storm. Yesterday's flash flood soaked and sunk small communities under flash floods and as they were small areas out in the middle of nowhere it got very little press. TWC mentioned it a few times between long discussion on El Nino, Michael's Recovery and and some teasing discussion on what Winter might be like this coming year. Spoiler Alert for TWC anyone watching the weather has seen the disaster scenario maps of a very cold, bitter, snowy winter shared on social media or in email updates people receive who follow the weather. Trust me if nothing was happening in Texas weather wise like a Flash Flood I love nothing more than shooting the breeze speculating on what weather may be like but when a bridge was swept away that provides a vital link for communities to get to work and where they live I wish TWC would give it the same coverage it does for a named hurricane that is long gone. They used to and it was very compelling and held you there riveted vs switching the channel to see what else is on to watch.
I figured they would send someone out there today and I was right as they have Mike Seidel out there covering the flooding now that it has moved up towards Dallas and the Fort Worth area. Austin was also in the mix last night. I guess the question as to what is in a name that William Shakespeare raised generations ago gets answered here as without a name something doesn't exist unless it's gone in hiding off the grid on in the witness protection program. Yes, names are important yet with or without one the weather is the same. This time of year there people go camping when the temperatures moderate and it's not yet too cold especially as we head into "Hunting Season" that is a thing in those parts of the country. People go off the grid into areas where cell phone service is weak camping and enjoying the beauty of nature that suddenly goes ona wild rampage. This is an old story below, but recent and you get the idea campers were swept away and died. It goes without saying that many in that area live in trailers and even sometimes an RV and a flash flood comes in a flash so early warning is important but sometimes impossible. The pattern creates the possibility and it needs to be talked on as seriously as a Tropical Storm moving WNW into the region in June gets much hype and hoople but barely makes a splash compared to a Flash Flood.
Route 2900 bridge is the one that was washed away to be clear above.
That's the power of rushing water.
Be it moving homes 10 feet in a storm surge ...
...or wiping out a bridge.
This is a picture of another bridge where the water was rising and people were driving across as this picture was taken. Crazy high water, crazy rushing water on it's way somewhere to do horrific damage.
Another video of the smaller bridge below.
What was the smaller bridge.
I wrote about flash flooding two days ago in the blog and I suggest you read that post or at least skim through it looking for the part about the Johnstown Flood and why I would take a Major Hurricane any day over a Flash Flood. I'd rather the beast you can try to prepare for and gather your family together to what you hope will be safety or evacuate together than waiting to hear if your loved one survived a disaster on their way to work or school. With hurricanes even a "home grown" hurricane, we can see them coming and prepare. It was kind of freaky for me to see the Flash Flooding as I had just researched a few flash floods the day before.
As for Michael the death toll is 29 however I think it may have risen to 30 though I can't find confirmation just now. As they go through the rubble they will find more people who died most likely. No I'm not a pessimist I just know hurricane damage along the coast where bodies are hidden under debris who we did not know stayed to ride out the storm. Mike did a good show this morning, all his shows are good, and he played a video from a viewer at the end. Mike previously had asked people who watch his Facebook Lives to send in video or feel free to share their stories with each other on his Facebook Page that is a half a million strong and people did. Great video at the end from a viewer who went through Michael and filmed some of the "after the storm" process with his family. It's very real, like Mike.
Before I sign off today and try to figure out what to wear to the fair as it's going to be colder there tonight that it is this morning I want to wish Mike a Happy Birthday. Maybe jeans, boots but what kind of jacket do I wear? Hmnn Carolina problems in a cold October after a very hot September.
So wishing Mike a Happy Birthday.
I knew yesterday someone's birthday was this week.
Well online wise but drove me crazy exactly whose..
In truth I have a few friends born this week.
So for Mike and the rest of them...
Happy Birthday.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:01 AM
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