UPDATED! 90% Red Circle in Atlantic. Is Oscar Forming in the Atlantic? Subtropical Oscar Most Likely as Invest 95L is Hot to Trot Out of the Gate.

GOM system NOT Oscar.



But the Atlantic system will be named soon.
Not a threat to any landmass for now.
Or ever maybe.
But never say maybe in 2018.

Models

Kind of Sargasso Sea cruiser.

I know, reminds you of Leslie right?

It's pulling together. 

Somewhere in there is a system coming together.

There's the front that will grab it.

Then hold it.

Then it tries to move West or North.

Think Leslie.

Then who knows?

In the Gulf of Mexico is our "storm"

The storm without a hashtag.

Lightning off and on.

Nice link to follow the lightning.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30 

Note the strong flow from the Pacific.

Feeding into this system in the GOM.

Radar of the GOM Storm

As it tracks up the coast it will get a hashtag.

It seems it will be considered the 1st Nor'easter of the Year.

Stay tuned.

As for what should be Oscar tomorrow.

Keep reading.

Brief update to say that the "red circle" known as Invest 95L is now up to 90% and will most likely be designated within the next 12 hours. It's not threatening anything at the moment though Bermuda could be in the crosshairs so they will be watching it to be sure. But if all goes as planned and it should it will curve away from Bermuda caught by the next strong front pushing off the US Coast. Not this front, to be clear, but the next one.

***

As I said yesterday the orange circle in the Atlantic would go red fast and it did. You can see it beginning to come together in this loop below. It would most likely be Subtropical Storm Oscar if it gets named over the next few days. Nothing else is on the map that is gonna steal that name away.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined This is a great link to a satellite loop that shows the whole wide view. You get a good feel here for what is going on as you do in the Water Vapor Loop above. Note the diving air across the U.S. and be aware the cool air is already here. Note there is no quasi tropical meeting a cold front low in the GOM just yet. Moisture and it's funneling in and riding the front up. The moisture flow across Mexico and Texas is apparent and it's fueling the developing storm in the SE with tropical energy. Infusing it with tropical energy like those water drinks that taste like pineapple. Not something you want to put it your latte I know but it is what it is and it is evolving.

So I'll be back later today after we see the specifics of the coastal low that is a storm system that everyone wants to call a Nor'easter but will it meet those parameters? Keep watching. Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbsitorm on Twitter

Ps The sky is beautiful here in Raleigh but the cold brisk air is waking me up and rocking my world. Hope your weather rocks yours.