Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Invest 95L Forms in Atlantic. Remnants of Willa & Gulf LOW? Do They Have Chemistry? Tropical Possibilities and a Coastal Storm Like a Nor'easter.

This is our world today.
Front draped East of Florida.
Shadow of Willa over Mexico.
Squally system out in Atlantic.
Invest 95

60% chances of developing.
And it already has an Invest.

The Invest is the Orange Circle in the Atlantic.
What was yellow yesterday.
Possibly best chance for the name Oscar.
Even though everyone is watching Willa.....
...or what's left of Willa.

From the NRL map grid above.
In the Gulf of Mexico there is a Low.
Our Gulf Low that's been stalled out.
Sitting there, causing problems.

Up close look at the GOM and Mexico.
Willa remnants and Gulf Low.

What will happen with Willa remnants...
... as it meets the Gulf Low?

This is similar in ways to when we have a CAG near the Yucatan and we wait for a tropical wave that didn't quite make it to come around the corner and light the keg (being the CAG) that's been waiting for it and then things begin to develop. This happens often down a bit further to the South near the Yucatan with a wave coming in from the East. Now we have the same set up but a reverse flow with what's left of Willa moving towards the area where the Gulf Low is waiting to catch it. Then it gets caught up in the flow, moves along the Gulf of Mexico cities that were slammed by Michael and crosses Florida with a high chance of strong weather (think tornadoes possible somewhere) and tightens up into a "storm" off the Carolinas. 

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

The MIMIC shows the set up.
The flow of moisture.
You can also see 95L in the Mid Atlantic.

So where would Invest 95L go you ask?
Models are up and running.
Decent chance it gets a name.
Better odds than any of us winning the lotto.
But we played.
Money goes to Education.
Can't beat that.

I'll make a prediction.
95L gets a red circle soon.
Trying to line this up for you.
Winds on the right.
Orange circle on the left.

Dabuh put up a good Tweet Map.

Kind of an extrapolation of the 5 day map from NHC

In theory it forms into something.
Moves West at some point.
Then moves North or NW.
Then at some point a stronger front catches it.
Drags it out to sea.
That's in theory.
NOT the "nor'easter" but the system after that one.
Stay tuned.
Nothing really set in stone here.
But it seems to be a strong cold front.

As for the Nor'easter Storm.
It gets messy around here.

Friday all the places that were impacted by Michael...
..back in play from FL to the Carolinas and VA.
Then it moves up the coast.
Note the long range forecast.
One front after another.
Lows in progression...
...with highs that build in again.

Reality is that it's hard to say what happens with the remnants of Willa until they mix it up with the Gulf Low. Think of it like a dating website. According to the information provided and the pictures put up someone sounds just perfect. You have so many things in common, they are kind of cute and interesting and you figure "why not?" Give it a chance and you go out and you finally meet face to face and there's no real chemistry. Or like a city you study online wondering if you'd like to live there as you are contemplating a move, it has all the things you need and not in a bad spot and then you travel there and you think "let's not" and you cross that off your list of possible places to move. Lots of things work wonderful in theory and yet they do not pan out. In most given years if I was to say "WOW that EPAC Hurricane is going to bust across the width of Mexico and turn into a storm in the GOM" I'd be laughed out of the weather world but for some reason this year it seems not so impossible. I'll believe it when I see it. Either way a nor'easter like storm will form and roll up the East Coast and there can be strong surf and some wind impacts and heavy rain; a little snow up in New England. That set up could change and more people could get snow depending on the evolving track. I just keep wondering is it a nor'easter if there isn't much snow? Feels more like it could be a hybrid but unless the NHC wants to blink and put up a yellow and orange circle for Fall with an Invest and ponder the possibilities on Subtropical or Extratropical it's probably going to be the NWS game to play. Speaking of bout that late night Red Sox win over the Dodgers? Was exciting for me.. 

Something else I want to mention.
This is the anniversary of Hurricane Wilma.
Wild storm for South Florida.
I remember it well.

So stay tuned for Oscar as it's a good possibility.
Will the early models play out?
Or will there be an October surprise?
Getting close to Halloween...
...and that time of year when storms collide.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Good song. Thanks Mike.
I definitely lived Wilma.

Good song. 
Always loved it.
I lived it.


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