UPDATE! Tornado Cape Cod. Yellow Circle in Atlantic Maybe Oscar? GOM Storm a Storm Without a Hashtag. Meteorological Mystery with an October Surprise Ending. Something Out in Atlantic.. Wild Card I Mentioned the Other Day.
Afternoon Update.
Discussion on Nor'easter later in the week.
And Yellow Circle in the Atlantic.
We have two areas we are watching.
Three really but let's stick with two.
Willa is making landfall on Mexico.
It's moisture will spread across Mexico...
...into Texas and part of it will get into the GOM.
Out in the Atlantic is an area around 50 West.
That has sat there parked for a few days.
It is where the yellow circle is located.
Low chances but very possible down the road.
Many maybes lie in wait ...
Let's look at the NHC 2 day...
that has a satellite imagery on it.
I really wish the NHC would put the circle over the sat image.
I put as much ability to get that as wishing on the lotto.
It is what it is...
The models are in good agreement that something forms in the GOM (intensity and timing different) and slides near the coast or over the coast in areas that were pounded by Michael. They really don't need more rain while they try and clean up. You don't always get what you wish for so whatever will be will be. It will not turn into Oscar and doesn't look too tropical, though surprises in October are always possible. It tracks across Florida and forms off the Carolinas and then moves up the coast. Depending on it's track parts of heavily populated metropolitan areas could get slammed with heavy rain and bad weather; up the coast it could turn into a #Noreaster and many are indeed using the #Noreaster hashtag for this system. Names are important even when they are fake or imposed by TWC people need to keep track of the players when writing online.
This general track is solid.
What happens after the Carolinas is the question.
Remember Cranky's line from the other day.
His map above.
Why is this so important?
The tropical connection from Willa is interesting.
The first Nor'easter of the year is exciting.f
Well if you live in NE.
In Miami it's still not very wintry.
I'm wearing long sleeves in Raleigh.
Models shown below:
EURO shows it more inland.
Bringing rain to N FL.
Oh what's that out in the Atlantic.
20% Yellow looking good.
EURO brings it N over NY NJ NE
Yellow Circle area still there.
Then.......it moves East...
Begins to meet Yellow Circle Area
You guessed it they join together.
Storms this year seem to have a Team effort.
Bits of energy left behind....
...developing or being absorbed.
The GFS......
Shows the GOM Low closer to the coast.
The Yellow 20% Circle is still there.
Feel free to loop the GFS below.
It shows the storm or nor'easter whichever you prefer calling it staying over land, moving up and then out to sea but the "20% yellow circle" merges with the next system. Either way the yellow circle seems to be a long term player. Odd but true.
And what is most ironic is while people in New England worry on a Nor'easter and wonder on the World Series a tornado pops up during what seems to be severe weather and steals the show.
Imagine seeing that out your window......
...in New England in October?
Below is from the NWS
Seems Boston, Charles Town, Pawtucket and Cape Cod..
...are in play for weather these days.
Play Ball... indeed.
So what is with the 20% yellow circle?
It's more likely that IF this develops.
It would get the Oscar name than the GOM storm.
Subtropical Storm Oscar is more probable.
I've been watching this area for days.
Water Vapor Loop has been wild.
This has been a real battle zone that often has stolen my attention from the Willa and Vincente story. A huge high diving down turning Carolina skies "Carolina Blue" and bringing in fresh air and temperatures that dove down yesterday morning to 35 degrees in the wee early hours of the morning. But at the same time this huge system out in the Atlantic has been doing it's thing and in ways it's bigger than the cold front that was impressive.
Love this loop.
It's quite a power struggle out there.
In the Atlantic.
While Willa is simply caught like a fly...
...in the flow.
This was Sunday.
No yellow circle but just impressive to watch.
Cranky called it a "collision" between the Azores High..
..and the advancing trough.
Quite the collision zone.
Low chances.
But pretty sure you bought a lottery ticket today..
..on far lower chances of winning.
And there is the yellow circle.
Time will tell.
But it's a wait and see thing.
Agree with Dabuh it could be Oscar.
So if you are looking for tropical discussion.
There you go.
But as we move towards Winter.
Maybe along the hurricane coast...
... watch for coastal storms of any kind.
As for me...
I went to the Mall.
Got some great coffee.
Bought some warm yoga pants at Victoria's Secret.
I really need to fill in the winter wardrobe.
Not in the mood for dress shopping (see below)
I can do that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
No message there for a movie tie in.
It's latte season vs frapps.
Feel free to keep reading if you had not.
I was in a mood earlier when I wrote.
I get in a mood often.
Rarely do I go with it.
But I did today.
It's a good example of mets and models.
Men by the way do it with ties.
"honey, do you like this tie or that tie?"
Same logic applies.
World Series or Noreaster watch?
And wham a tornado forms.
That's weather for you.
Always throwing you a curve ball.
* * *
Mike is the Master of Short Posts.
He squeezes everything in perfectly.
That just about says it all.
If you want a long read ...
...keep reading.
I'll explain why we have a storm...
...with no Hashtag.
Oh a yellow circle in the Atlantic.
More on that tonight.
But currently everyone wants to know..
...what's with this GOM/Coastal Storm.
And what is it?
As in what Hashtag do we use?
A storm without a HASHTAG is coming up the East Coast after pulling together in the Gulf of Mexico from moisture that was there and remnants of Willa. It will form in real time and concordance with other features moving along the United States and the timing between the two defines the exact track and impact. I know it sounds like a novel; a meteorological mystery that could have a spooky ending as we move towards late October. Meanwhile the area I referred to recently as a "wild card" now has a yellow circle in the Atlantic. You're wondering why there is no yellow circle in the GOM? It's still a down the road, iffy, now you see me now you don't storm according to the models and they weigh heavily on the models. They know what will happen without the models, we all do, but it's like a lady putting on a dress they like but aren't sure they want and then they ask their husband or the saleslady what they think. If the husband or saleslady looks aghast they go back and try on a few other things and decide to try it on with different shoes and a different bra. If the husband or sales lady seems to approve they smile knowing they were right and it was the perfect dress. If they see a dress they hate on a hanger and their best friend hands it to them five minutes later and says "try it on" and their response is "it's ugly" and their best friend says "TRY IT ON" and so for the sake of friendship and their best friend has good taste they try it on and oh my gosh it looks awesome. Model like perfect awesome on their curvaceous body but butt ugly on the hanger. I know, I had a dress like that. Black velvet with a peplum long diving fake satin front and I wore it to several important winter parties with black velvet high heels. I'd have ignored it otherwise as it looked like a black velvet sack on the hangar. Long paragraph I know but it's working for me.
The best friend is usually the EURO and unless the best friend thinks the dress looks good it's ignored as not looking that great. Best friends somehow know you, your body and your mind better than a husband, a sales lady or the lady in the next booth. This is why women like to go shopping together. This is why people who have attained Masters Degrees and Doctorate Degrees in Meteorology and are the cream of the crop need to wait to see if the EURO gives it the nod. The GFS is the combined "yeah I like it" that the husband and the saleslady give you. You don't NEED someone to tell you that you look hot in a dress or it fits just right. But there is some need for people to agree in the same way mets like agreement by the models.
The models have been developing a system in the Gulf of Mexico for a while now. There has been a closed circulation on some level there already, there has been rain there for days and it's waiting for that kick that only a best friend can give it to do something. Models disagree on how close it goes to the GOM cities and where it crosses Florida but they all agree that off the East Coast it wraps up and it most likely will merge with a cold front with it's adjacent low moving in the same general direction. There will be wind off the East Coast and lost of rain. There could be lots of snow showers in parts of the North East (that includes upstate NY) or it could stay out to sea and or it could affect the NorthEast (Go Red Sox) but we aren't there yet as to knowing the specifics.
It's like you have a party you have to go to and it's October so you figure you could wear a thin, silky dress under a coat or you could wear a long sleeve sweater mini dress with high boots or you aren't sure and you'd like it to be red or black so what do you do? You go shopping... You want to try it on and you leave the buying bras to shopping online. This is where we are at today in the weather world.
Willa Stage Left.
Closed circulation center Stage Right
At some point energy from Willa...
...gets wrapped up in that circulation center.
And off to see the East Coast they go.
This storm has no HASHTAG (so annoying) but some are calling it the following:
Coastal Low
Coastal Storm
Nor'easter
Nor'easterish
Subtropical
Extratropical
Hybrid
Weather
In the Atlantic we have a mystery package in a yellow box.
I'll talk on that later.
This is how the world spins today, tropically and not so tropically. We have cold air barreling across parts of the country that were wearing bikinis to the Lake just what feels like last week and the only signs of fall were Pumpkin Spice Latte at Starbucks but we had freeze warnings up the night before last and another wintry blast in the 30s later this week. No one knows what to wear. No one knows what to call the storm. The Red Sox and the Dodgers are in the World Series though so that much is clear. Will the games in Fenway Park be wicked weather or fall foliage beautiful? Will most of the leaves just turning be gone with the wind after this blast of our first Winter Storm that has tropical energy in it? Maybe.
Time will tell.
I'll update later with more info on the Atlantic system and Willa on her way to landfall and a long cross over trip to the Gulf of Mexico where that that area of moisture and spin is already waiting to catch it in some seasonal relay race for weather Gods and meteorologists to find a name or a Hashtag for it. As for me... obviously I have to go shopping for a dress. I'm doing it alone, by myself and rarely do I ask a saleslady for advice. I'm more window shopping today unless I see something I love. I might by high boots.
Oh a good website to explain the name Willa is here:
https://www.willacather.org/
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbsitorm on Twitter
Ps... Sorry not in the mood to go long and really Mike summed it up as that is what is happening. The details just are not set in stone yet...they aren't even carved in Play Dough.
Annoyed as I have a friend online who seems upset with me because something I did 9 months ago (no I'm not pregnant) upset them. Bugs me cause I don't remember what I did 9 months ago other than go to Miami. I say silly, stupid things sometimes impulsively so if I upset someone I am really sorry about it. But letting it ride right now cause hoping they get over it or get in a good mood or maybe I'll deal with it tomorrow. Hoping I don't make it worse. Sorry for upsetting you or disappointing you. You're usually right anyway so can't believe I'd say you weren't. Sending good thoughts and sorry if people aren't in a good mood. I hate that. Like to see my friends in good moods all the time but I can't control that I can barely pick out a good dress without my best friend telling me the one on the hangar will look good on me. But I do know weather and this storm ........whatever it is called.......will be the kick off to the winter storm season and one of the latter storms of the 2018 Hurricane Season that as many others in Texas did not get a name when they deserved it while others did that were microscopic but got a name.
Sorry for any typos. I was in a rush. I'll fix them later ... if only life was that easy.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:38 AM
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