60% of Otto Forming in the Caribbean... Sounds Like 1 of Santa's Elves... Winter On the Move. Hurricane Season Slow to Leave.

By watching the loop above you can see the players.

The cold front to the North.

Convection in the Caribbean.

The water vapor loop shows it has taken up residence in the Caribbean.

If it stays there long enough it may become Otto.

If it does it has a ticket out of the Caribbean.

Models show agreement this afternoon.

GFS shows a slow forming storm.

It forms slowly. Very slowly.

Finally moves NE out of the Caribbean.

If that happens it would cross the islands.

How strong it would be is hard to tell that far away.

The EURO forms it faster.
Moves it faster NE out of the Caribbean.

And then it sling shot backs a bit.

Saying "no I don't want to go there!"

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

.

With models like this it's hard to make a call.

Other than to go with climo and history.

And to watch the actual steering currents evolve.

Note models have swung wildly on this evolution.

Flip flopped and changed often.

Note the duality below.

Warm water still in the Caribbean.

Cold weather and snow finally showing in the NW.

Side by side.

A slow goodbye to the tropics.

A slow, steady hello to winter.

Do we have one last named storm?

Possibly.

I don't believe the NHC would put up odds to 60%...

...if they did not believe it could happen.

Conditions will become conducive in a few days.

On the other hand there is no floater nor is it an Invest.

If that were to change I'll update in real time.

Note there is a system named in the Epac.

So much drama in the world right now.

TWC waiting to see if they can name their 1st winter storm.

While the NHC waits to see if they will name their last tropical storm.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-names-2016-2017

Argos first name up #rollingeyes

Stay tuned!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Holiday season is almost here.

Snow birds want to fly South for winter.

And they don't want to hear about OTTO

Sounds a bit like the keeper of Santa's elves.

See? I didn't make that up ;)