GOM? Fred? September 1st Meteorological Fall. Tropical Update Tuesday

In the tropics all that glitters is not gold.

And things that linger hang around longer.

A few things to note this morning.

There is a feed of tropical moisture in the GOM

The large area if percolating with various impulses.

They are moving towards the Houston to LA area.

Truth is this has happened several times over the last few weeks.

But we were distracted with Danny and Erika.

Note the Water Vapor Loop

Shows a nice mass of convection nestled down near Tex Mex Borderlands

Sort of like a girl cuddling with her guy... 

..before he has to go back to school.

Let's go back and look at that water loop.

Note there is a large gyre sort of spin across the whole South.

Extends out into the Atlantic and heads South.

Watch the loop again.

This is the beauty of atmospheric science.

It's all linked, all connected.

Close up ....

September 1st, 2015

Today is the first day of fall or just another day depending on who you believe.

Meteorological Fall

3 weeks before the Autumn Solstice.

Yet this year autumn leaves have begun to fall.

The rain will rain over Texas

Could it develop?

Most likely not.

The flow is fast and there is no real center.

Just a lot of rain swirling towards the coast.

But, anything that close in ...

..especially this year.

Needs to be watched.

If the situation persists..

..maybe.

Truth is though it depends on the Pacific.

If the EPAC shoots off a large system.

And that is forecast to go ballistic.

When the Epac erupts it zaps the energy from the GOM.

But... you keep watching.

Because as Bill Read, ex head of the NHC has said often.

Things in the GOM develop close in and there is little lead time.

They aren't big Cape Verde storms we track for weeks.

One minute it just looks like rain...

...the next there's an Invest..

..a center...

It has name...and makes landfall.

It's that time of year and this year in particular.

Things form close in.

In another part of the GOM

The remnants of Erika remain.

The NWS out of Tampa calls them that...

...so I don't want any belly aching Erika is up in NC or SC

Seems there's a little bit of Erika everywhere...

...sort of like the Scarecrow after his encounter with the witch.

Guess Erika needs Dorothy to put her back together again.

Don't see no Dorothy... yet...keep watching.

Either way it is a feature worth watching.

Especially since the area is ripe for convection.

All it takes is one part of it to start to twist.

Long shot yes.. but either way.

Tampa is getting more rain.

Organized rain or just plain old flooding rain.

Again GOM Discussion this morning.

There is a surface trof near Tampa.

And a large blob moving towards Tx La area.

Keep watching. 

I'll be back if anything develops.

Oh and people are watching off the Atlantic too...

Remnants of Erika that made it up there..

But... it's a long shot and not headed towards land so ..

.... lets' watch the GOM.

 Note weather is locational.

In Texas they are watching their side of the pond ...

In Tampa they are watching Erika's remnants ..

...mysteriously being referred to as Invest 90L

Yet the Navy site doesn't show it. 

NRL whats going on ??

When I update this blog tonight we may have more clarification..

On if or isn't there an Invest in the GOM

Stay tuned.

Watch for updates at bobbistorm@twitter in real time.

The best place to watch Tampa weather is ..

..Spaghetti Models as Mike lives around there.

And so Mike will cover it faster than any place else.

Fastest gun on the Eastern GOM right now ;)

He's on top of it.

And so he should be.

If there is anything going on there...

...he will sniff it out like the good blood hound he is !

:)

As for FRED...

Fred made history...

Now Fred might be history.

Here's a link... click on it.

Strange movie I did not see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8whX1-BlYX4

Fred is moving towards our part of the world.

It's a long journey.

3 possibilities in the order they most likely will happen.

1... Fred dissipates in a pond of cold, dry water.

(yes sounds impossible but so would be anything else

do not try Googling cold, dry water.. I'm not I made it up)

2. He stays togetherISH and pulls to the NW..

Mid Atlantic feature swallows him up for dinner.

Fish Food.

3. He somehow... gets under the high.. stays low.

Very low. Has a shot of getting across the ocean.

Fun to watch Fred.

Far away... hard to get excited on dreams.

NC has a fear factor with the letter F it seems.

Floyd

Fran

They seem to have forgotten Hazel and Isabel and the others.

Again weather is locational.

For the model elite ;)

The Model Lovers 

Interesting saying. Have to think on it.

Oh...you meant WEATHER MODELS?

GFS shows Fred getting eaten up as fish food.

Shows a weak wave that moved west low closing off...

\

Shows a massive storm in the PACIFIC...

Shows the only way the Atlantic gets going.

Staying low... playing possum and then closer in develops.

Maybe...or something spins up very close in..

...in the GOM

If you are a fan of the Onion and satire...

.....enjoy the most popular weather video around the Web today

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Happy September..

Summer may or may not be over...
Ps any typos sorry have a bad sinus headache :(