Cristobal Begins to Strengthen. Does part of him get left behind? GOM Home Brew? Is Invest 97L Dolly? Where's Edouard?

Best satellite to watch a system like this is the Canadian IR

Love it!

Always shows definition so much better and with a storm like Cristobal that's priceless.

You can loop it and watch the drama play out between Cris & the Trof..

As its the CANADIAN sat it has a good angle on the tropics & the trofs..

http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_enam_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Note the little orange ball of convection in the SE of the above image is NOT Invest 97L

It's just a little flare up...

 of convection...

 that time of year.. 

convection flaring

everywhere

(tropical poetry...free style)

Note Invest 97L is cruising along to the West...  

I'll show the models for this one...on strike with Cristobal for now..

Invest 97L

You can see the spin on this early morning sun glint visible loop

Another words... it's following the track of every other wave this year ...

...around the periphery of the High west bound... 

then WNW.... then looking at hotel rooms in Puerto Rico..

or there abouts.

Okay, real discussion here and it goes like this. 

Ever hear of or cook crowder peas? They are a type of field peas similar to black eyed peas but not black eyed peas. People round these parts get real uppity about their field peas and they say the names so fast it's hard for new comers to figure out what the heck they are saying. Porter? Porder? Crowder? 

Every year I tell myself I'm gonna buy shelled ones next year. Every time I shuck them I tell myself I'm not doing this anymore. Every year I go to the Farmer's Market and see the little bags for $4 already going mushy and the fresh ones so colorful for $1.89 a pound and I end up shucking the darn beans. More than once I bought the bag of shelled ones... we went to the beach or away... I forgot about them and a few days later they were mushy crowder peas... I bought a bag yesterday. I'm shucking them myself before fixing them up for dinner. 

Great blog here for anyone who loves food with a sense of humor.. just found it.

http://www.yumdiary.com/2008/08/magic-beans.html

(note I don't use ham so they can be made vegetarian style...incredible too)

For you Yankee types who can't follow a conversation that goes long...  watching loops and reading discussion of systems like Cristobal is like standing their annoyed 3/4 of the way into shelling the crowder peas and saying "I'm not doing this again" and yet you do...............

There is only so much that the NHC can say in their restricted format regrading a system like Cristobal. Some of the forecasters write incredible discussion... others go all defensive and sound like they are about to plead their case in the Tropical Supreme Court of Appeals.

Say it like it is... 

They upgraded it because it warranted upgrade based on quasi visible circulation, Tropical Storm force winds and proximity to land. Oh..and the models called for it to turn into a STRONG storm.. a HURRICANE and as always the models were unable to properly handle intensity forecasting. They under developed Arthur and never saw it happening the way it did. Cristobal was supposed to be looping far north of where he is currently off the North Central Coast of FL as a strong TS . . . and most said it would be a Hurricane by now. Busted forecast. Happens, and happens often for systems like Cristobal that from day one was a misaligned, tilted system with multiple centers. If discussion had been honest on that from day one rather than waxing poetic on trying to translate and defend the models ... it would have been fine. 

Bottom line: There is too much model discussion by the NHC and that comes off overly defensive and too much like reporting rather than forecasting. It is a problem and I feel for them as you have all these private forecasters like Bastardi out there waxing poetic in iambic pentameter and Bryan Norcross at TWC drawing doors everywhere showing door #1, #2 and #3 based on this model or that model. They have to compete with Cantore doing the Water Vapor Loop... They need to go back to doing their thing and talk more on the system and less on model justification.

What's the NHC supposed to do? Everyone wants model discussion.. EVERY ONE has ACCESS to the models now online. 

It has become too much about the models and too little about the tropical cyclone.

Think we need to go back to the basics. 

And, the reason I say this is because there are too many disconnects between what people think, see and "hear" when listening to the weather. And, this is for the NWS and the whole year not just the Hurricane Season. I had someone justify to me the reason they got stuck on the road for 4 hours last winter on hearing on the local weather that the models said it would come in later and the weather guy said he liked the GFS better than the EURO.  Oh Lord Have Mercy..........everyone get a grip.

I don't cook from one recipe. I look at recipes and sometimes blend them. It's the way life goes for me. There is no one perfect model that works for every storm or we would not be looking at the spaghetti models. 

You want to go online to www.spaghettmodels.com or go to your favorite app and play weather person do it! We all do it.. it's why we are here (although I look at the loops and then the models......) but the NHC ends up having to draw a line on a map for a pissant system like this one and ends up running out of things to say other than "it is what it is"

Last night I put this up online to vent a bit and giggle and not lose my mind. There is an end to shelling crowder peas... there is no end to misaligned, messy centers during the Hurricane Season. The reason we remember Camille Katrina and Sandy is they are the exceptions ....Thank God! 

I put this up to understand how people view the discussion and to highlight the reality of the situation.

Again understand this is not a knock on the NHC as much as Cristobal who deserved a D+ last night but got extra points for Tilting South..and finding a sweet spot to blow up a bit with some better than average convection down off the coast of North Haiti... 

This morning the discussion goes on to continue discussing the problems of Cristobal.

Follow the arrow diving down like the shear and realize also the CMC was right to some degree..

Cristobal should become Canada's problem...the NHC currently has them in the wind probs.

So what do I think Cristobal will do in the end?

Putting up the track map from Canada as I like it better and once it goes UP again .. stops meandering or tilting south it's their storm....

Note there is a fly in the ointment... 

sometimes a piece of energy gets left behind when the trof grabs the storm..

especially with weak, messy storms...

Look how much moisture there is south of Cristobal..a now 60 MPH Tropical Storm per 8 AM update.

Sometimes moisture gets left behind ... a new storm forms... can happen.

Probably won't happen but it could happen. 

Worth mentioning especially with waves flaring up down there and Invest 97L on the way

Cristobal has always been 2 systems trying to work as one.. 

At some point one wins... intensifies and could leave behind remnants of the other part

Note tweet:

Good read:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/trop-katrina-diary-aug23_2010-08-16

Here's the first paragraph as a tease..

"From the remains of Tropical Depression 10, which had dissipated nine days ago, Tropical Depression 12 spun up late in the afternoon of August 23, 2005. "

Katrina's "baby picture"

The tropics is some times like the bible.. one area begat and another area...

Also...watch the Gulf of Mexico as that area of moisture that flew off of last week's front is still there looking like it wants to do something.

Remember I showed it a few days ago... it's still there.

And...further east over Africa.... the models develop what could be Dolly or Edouard depending on if Invest 97L becomes Dolly. The models indicate (they do not forecast....they indicate... suggest...) it comes off with a closed low!

Remember September... it's an old adage for a reason..

Black and white more recent.... well spaced apart... 

waves that are properly spaced have a better chance of developing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdBcfRhzzAA

Besos Bobbi

Ps..And just as sure as I'll be shucking crowder peas this afternoon for dinner... you can bet I'll be reading the NHC Discussion at 11 AM and 5 PM and that's what we do...   

When does NFL Football Begin?

Help...