Is Cristobal Forming? Recon should make that call tomorrow......

Quick update tonight to say that Invest 96L is well on it's way to being the next Tropical Depression or quite possible Tropical Storm Cristobal sooner rather than later.

Been a compelling day of satellite loop watching for those who are fascinated watching a system come together to a designated storm.

Starting with the current image.

Earlier ...

Another before and after...

A short discussion on what happened today is that the energy transferred from the center closer to SA that was lower back to the other area within the "elongated area of low pressure" and the area further north won out and the convection began to wrap around that new, improved center. This dance of tropical energy often occurs in large systems with multiple systems or where two waves are moving in tandem together.

Where does it go?

Most recent models have kept the storm on the East Coast of Florida with a few making landfall in South and Central Florida as a few have curved it out to sea. A dramatic difference from yesterday when models hit everywhere from South America to New Orleans...

As I said this morning. Each new run of the models or as we call them "spaghetti models" is like a box of chocolates. You just don't know for sure what you will get until you bite in! Read the previous blog for a longer explanation.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/08/invest-96l-models-forest-gump-on-models.html

Lastly, as said this morning, different models show different information that is used to prepare a particular forecast. 

Tonight this was placed on Twitter. It's a good explanation in an easy to read format and good to study so you understand better that forecasting a 5 Day Cone is not as easy as it would seem.

Save it as your Model Cheat Sheet!

Note many websites have long, well written descriptions explaining the models and how to use them. However, for many time is limited and the meteorological jargon is difficult to understand. The chart above is just right

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/07/16/consume-rainbow-spaghetti-with-caution/

You can read the longer blog post explaining this in depth. It's a long read (which is a compliment for me.. but just a warning) so you might want to save it for when you have some time to digest it. With a good box of chocolates maybe.

Of course the best way to deal with spaghetti models is to use www.spaghettimodels.com and use the many links that educate you about the many sites shown online.

And...a note here that Mike took the ALS challenge and will be donating money from the site itself. He'll also be making more ice as .... he doesn't have any left in the fridge :) Might be a good idea for people to buy a bag of ice so you have something to use on a hot summer day ...

I'll post tomorrow when we have more definitive news on this system and I wouldn't be surprised to see it get its name faster than we thought. 

Lastly a note of caution. When the NHC puts out this big elongated oval red area it is not a 5 Day Cone but an indication of where formation may occur. Somewhere in that area ....depending on where the Invest is over the next 5 days it could get a name. It indicates the direction the wave will move in but it is NOT a 5 Day Cone. I've had people ask me about it and refer to it as such and there seems to be a little misunderstanding on what it represents. A storm could form in any area in that red shaded area and the percentage is the change of it forming. The number goes up as the chances for the system to develop increase.

Again it is the "potential formation area" not a 5 Day Cone!

Tonight's models show the following story.

Again...there is no way of being sure what the models will show tomorrow, but they will reflect the Invest itself as they change in real time with the storm itself. Again..weather is fluid and a work in progress.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. 

Bobbi Storm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps......Thanks for the nice comments on the blog and glad I can educate and entertain you. As much as we never want to hype a storm ever... awareness of what is going on and how quickly things change can make all the difference if some tropical system comes to your town. I'd rather deal with a hurricane than a Flash Flood. You can prepare for a hurricane and the first step in that preparation is being prepared. Also... as important as it is to listen to the NHC it is always valuable to stay on top of your local NWS as they cover the weather in your particular area.

http://www.weather.gov/

Put in your zip code and check it often especially if and when you are in a 5 Day Cone!