Could this be Cristobal? A Funeral in Brooklyn...

To paraphrase an old song...
Let's start at the very beginning...it's a very good place to start.
When you read you begin with ABC when you do tropical analysis you begin with NHC.

Official word Sunday night from the NHC:

"Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure
is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown"

Now let's look at the actual situation a bit deeper.

If you are a person who sees the glass half empty you see 10%

If you are a person who sees the glass half full you read it 40%

The truth is it has a long way to go before it either sleeps with the fishies or it becomes Cristobal and gives lots of worries to people living along the East Coast.

Let's take a different perspective here tonight. From up above in Polar Vortex land looking down on the Earth we see the wave circled in blue almost a 1/4 of the world away.

It's closer to Africa than anywhere else and yet people are sitting up tonight all over the East Coast and worrying on whether it will become the C storm. 

When you see on the East Coast the early evolution of fronts moving across the land as if it is early September not early August you see an evolution in the tropics towards tropical development. It's a yin yang thing for those of you who do not want to go deeper into atmospheric science.

Here's an example. Just an example I can see in my head...

Look at the Atlantic in August of 1992

Today....

Different set up as EVERY storm is different but note the similarities 

There is still a good amount of Dusty Sal out in the Atlantic. For those of you who ask me... it varies from day to day as new impulses come off of Africa. There was a strong sand storm and whoosh... it's in the wind westbound again. Sort of like "On the Road Again" . . .

Watch the 5 Day Movie and you can see the impulses blowing off of Africa.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

What is extremely interesting is that in North Carolina they are watching this wave on air more than the last few. I don't think that's because it's later in the season as much as IF this wave were to develop it bears watching for places in the Carolinas. Cape Verde Waves often make their way that far north... 

Rare for them to be paying attention to a measly mouth 10% yellow area that far away..

The image above shows another cold front blasting through the South on August 14th...

And then.... 

On August 15th it goes flat...stationary... oops.

My point is that it is too soon to say if this wave will make it all the way across the ocean. For it to intensify the thunderstorms have to climb high up into the atmosphere and grow... spread out... and it needs moist, wet air and sorry but the air is not yet that hospitable. 

Then again we really do not expect development until the wave gets further west and therefore it will stay a player and not a fish storm. So again it bears watching.

Every week that goes by the US side of the Atlantic Basin becomes more and more hospital for development close in vs far, far away.

Think of it like a model house for a new subdivision named Atlantic Hurricanes 2014 is about to be open for sales of their new floor models. But, they are currently still having the models staged as to look their best for the potential buyers. That is the way it is in the tropics today.

It is simply too soon to say what if for the following reason. ANY track will depend on the strength of this system if it gets the name Cristobal. If it's a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane as some models imply or if it's a Category 3 Hurricane. Each intensity would affect the eventual track so it's way too soon to tell ... but I'm watching it and so is the NHC...and every meteorologist between the Antilles and the Mid Atlantic Coast because... it's a Cape Verde System.

I'll update tomorrow on this wave...the potential C storm IF it can make it across the Atlantic with a closed low pressure cell attached to it and convection that is sufficient to catch the eye of the guys at the NHC.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... a plea to people in the NY area reading this who could attend tomorrow's funeral of Joseph Raksin murdered on Saturday as he walked to Temple during a trip to Florida to visit his grandchildren. 

Sorry for things like this to intrude on the weather but this is my community, these are my friends and a man was murdered not more than few houses away from the house of my best friend's son and his family. It was 4 or 5 blocks from my house where I lived for 20 years. I know his mother, his wife and other relatives of his who are mourning the senseless tragedy and I'm wondering why the Metro Dade Police have to wait until Monday to hold a press conference and give us answers such as why did they ignore the swastikas painted on a nearby temple last week that was just 500 yards away from where Joseph Raksin lay dying? Not related? Just a coincidence? Hard to believe. Why was his name released to the press before his own children knew... something I know first hand as my daughter was with one of his children last night. A very heavy sad story. 

As the woman on the video said very clearly, "They came, they shot him and walked away. How could that be a robbery gone bad?" She's right.. she's my niece's aunt... she lives nearby, she's friends with his daughter who is now mourning her father who shortly before his murder sat for breakfast with his grandchildren eating breakfast before leaving to go pray. 

It is well known in NMB as in most areas where Orthodox Jews live that they do not carry their wallet, purses, cell phones, etc on the Jewish Sabbath. A robbery gone bad? Last night people interviewed on air kept saying over and over that nothing like this has happened in NMB in 10 years. It's not a place known for random violence on a Saturday morning where barely anyone is out walking except people walking to Temple. 

"That's unfortunate. It's very sad to hear it," said Rich, who lives near the scene of the shooting. "That's about the most extreme thing that's happened in the 10 years I've been here."

http://www.wsvn.com/story/26240875/rabbi-fatally-shot-while-walking-to-ne-miami-dade-synagogue

If you live in the New York area.. please attend his funeral. Please show your respect and support. Thank you.

http://collive.com/show_news.rtx?id=31527