Tropical Wave Over Africa... small wave in Carib. Otherwise It's All About the Pacific...

State of the Tropical World...

A water vapor loop of the Atlantic Basin is below

Odd looking satellite loop for the Atlantic in August.

Another wave works it's way through the Caribbean. The high acts like it's had on too many guarana supplements.

Over Africa where the waves originate from there is color, moisture and tropical heat.

And then the waves roll off of land into the ocean. There is a wave there currently... nothing big shows up on the models but it does exist. This poorly drawn diagram shows the wet/dry environmental problems the African waves are having this year.

Wet & hot and tropical over Africa. Dry, Saharan dust zapping them bone dry of any drop of tropical moisture.  :(

To paraphrase a Jimmy Buffett song... dry to the left, wet to the right

and it's the only wave in the Atlantic...

(there is a weak wave working it's way through the Caribbean... )

Shhh... just whispering this...

Mike  is correct everyone is talking about this wave currently far off in Africa... yet so far there has not been any real significant signs of development with the A Team Models. Just rumors and innuendo in the meteorological community online. Are you a friend on Facebook? If not why not? Join in the discussion....

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates/photos/a.10150182050932367.321548.88134562366/10152540806197367/?type=1

The GFS weakly develops the wave and then loses it to the sea of Saharan Dust that has persisted way past it's welcome for Cristobal & Dolly not to mention Edouard always waiting in the wings.

The Canadian Model that has a tendency to see hurricanes in it's sleep shows a low forming off the coast of the Carolinas and heading East...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2014080800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

What is more interesting in the models is the orientation of the high. It has a long, tilted orientation that goes across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico on more days than not.

I can look at all the models and satellite loops out there, but that remains the same. 

Again, should some weak, westward moving wave make it's way into the Caribbean and hit the right spot W of Jamaica it could blow up into something too hot to handle. And, as I have pointed out in a whisper there are waves making their way into the Caribbean. Each one ends up where the last one did before. That pattern for now is set in stone.

Over in the Pacific it's a very different story. This is their year. As someone on TV said kids experiencing these two storms will grow up and tell their grandchildren about the rare back to back cyclones. Why are their 2? Because it's pattern... an atmospheric pattern though usually there is a week or two before the next storm. 

See Frances....

See Jeanne... 

Different tracks about 2 weeks apart, but the result was we battened down the hatches and waited out the storms.

In 2005... In Miami we had Katrina, Wilma & Rita. Everyone made fun of how often Florida gets affected by Hurricanes...and then..............nothing of significance since...

For Hawaii it's a bigger surprise to have any landfalls let alone two back to back.

And, that is how it goes in the tropics. From year to year patterns persist.

Again.. lastly... a reminder that 1992 brought the last storm to Hawaii and Miami had a weak season that included Andrew. It was a quality over quantity sort of year..........and both cyclones in oceans far apart found a way to make the worst case scenario come to life. 

Stay prepared, watch the tropics.. have a wonderful weekend! If you booked a Hawaiian vacation rather than a Caribbean cruise you lose. If you took a chance on a Caribbean cruise at the height of the summer hurricane season... you won big time! 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/08/last-hawaii-hurricane-iniki-1992-andrew.html

Besos Bobbi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UruXWui1EG8