Darwin & Saharan Dust. Camille's 45th Anniversary & Today's Weak Westbound CV Wave...

Cliff notes for readers... like a syllabus ...

1. Weak tropical wave westbound with 30% chances of developing..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
We want a floater! We want an Invest!!

2. Brief history of Saharan Dust & Darwin on SAL

3. Miami Sunsets

4. Tony Prospero and his contribution to SAL research.

5. Space Shuttle Columbia and dust experiments.

6. Bobbi Storm agrees with Avila...finally.

7. Today's tropics. 

8. Tired of waiting on Cristobal can we move on to Dolly?

9. Stock Car Races in Africa in 1969... who remembers the Datsun

10. Anniversary of Camille. 45 years ago... lessons for years like this one.

The Yellow X at hand open for discussion.... a wave moving west with the SAL

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

(in case your computer doesn't like that loop above... either way keep the link.. it's a good one)

It's illustrates well the state of the Tropical Atlantic this morning... 

Westbound waves trying to stay alive in a sea of Saharan Dust over cooler than normal water temps.

5 Day Movie of Saharan Dust:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

Please understand that Cape Verde Waves have been riding westbound in tandem with Saharan Dust since the continents split up and Atlantis fell into the sea. Okay... guessing on the Atlantis thing but just giving you a visual image to think on....

Darwin of evolution fame who I'm sure would have been a Global Warming Advocate today wrote in his ships log about African Dust very eloquently. Seems Saharan Dust was so bad back then that they referred to the area off of the Cape Verde Islands as the "Dark Sea"  . . .

No study of Saharan Dust is complete without getting lost on the page above that shows all the incredible work that Tony Prospero has done regarding African Dust... and the particles of it that circle the globe in one way or another.  I've included the link in the image above so that if you desire you can read up on his many studies on Saharan Dust.

For example take this image below, turn your head sideways and place it mentally over the image at the top of the page and note that nothing much has changed since this report was written...

Saharan Dust has been studied by meteorologists far and wide including ongoing studies done in Israel. I imagine those dust samples on board the Space Shuttle Columbia that broke up during re-entry over Texas were lost forever back into the atmosphere. Looking for the right word for that tragedy, seems that NOAA couldn't find the right word either and used the word "loss" as seen here in this report below.

"KSC landing was planned for Feb. 1 after a 16-day mission, but Columbia and crew were lost during reentry"

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/archives/sts-107.html

So it bugs me when I read meteorologists and researchers today blaming SAL on Global Warming. You can blame a lot on global warming, but not Saharan Dust's current grip on the Atlantic and it's effects on the tropical waves caught in it's ruddy grasp.

Would seem to be global warming first began when man created fire for the first time (and I don't mean the phone...) and smoke wafted up into the blue skies on a regular daily basis. Of course there were always forest fires set by lightning, but when man made that switch over to eating cooked meat ... we began the process of polluting our environment.

But we do know as far back as Darwin, and I'm sure further back in logs of early ship captains and pirate legends, we know that there was Saharan Dust out there. Bet Darwin saw some beautiful sunsets in his day...

Serendipity may be the mother of inspiration but you cannot inspire a hurricane into forming. You can try to wish them into existence and then try wishing them away from making landfall in your town ....but you cannot simply wish them into existence.

Everyone keeps asking to me "when are you blogging about the wave" and I jokingly told them when there's an Invest. Truth is there just isn't anything new to say specifically about this wave but I'll give it my best shot. I just felt it was more important to remind people that Saharan Dust is not a recent problem but an age old one. It's just that lately we talk on it a lot. Back when the newspapers mentioned it only as a health concern as people with respiratory problems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h81Ojd3d2rY


 So what else can I say this Monday morning when everyone wants to hear what I have to say about a wave that neither the Navy nor the NHC can bother to put up an Invest or Floater on???  Seems they think it may develop down the line...if and when conditions are more conducive to development.

Dry air + cool water + a poor presentation on visible satellite imagery means the wave is not ready for prime time.  And, wishing or hoping for something to track doesn't make it happen.

This what the NHC has to say on the wave that many think will finally get the name Cristobal:

For once I agree with Avila and note he used the word "could" not "should" in his discussion this morning. Note today's date... I agree with Avila!

30% chance that something may develop and if so that storm would be called Cristobal. Well, unless Cristobal develops close in.. C being in this case for close in.

My own thoughts are here illustrated in this image.  Note there are two waves coming off Africa... one further out. The wave that has the yellow X is actually the area in general that has a wide, elongated sort of very broad iffy circulation lumbering slowly west. It is not a well organized system, though low pressure does exist. It's trying to put a nice dent into Cousin Sal it seems. There is a flare up of convection off the Coast of Carolina that many are watching, but that is moving East rapidly. Just to the south of that area... everything flows West...  IF it was meandering to the south it might be an area to watch for close in, home grown Carolina brew. Also...in the BOC there is an area that catches my attention and makes me wonder what might go on down the road there... Just a wondering mind you..

Also worth noting is the location of the last wave that is now sitting in the Florida Straits.

If you want to enjoy more of these sunsets and not miss any important weather discussion make sure you add the NWS Miami into your Twitter feed. @NWSMiami


 It is also worth nothing is that there are some great pics online of sunsets from Miami due to SAL being in the area. Remember again what I have said many times.. hurricanes later go where Saharan Dust went just previously. Often, not always... has happened many times. Unless it's a major hurricane, systems follow the atmospheric patterns and that is why so many of the last few model runs take each new wave close to South Florida and the Bahamas. It's why Bertha ended up over Puerto Rico and why Arthur formed just off shore South Florida.

And, should one of these west bound waves get into the GOM either over or under Cuba that could happen...it would find a very friendly environment from the perspective of very hot water.

Would love to move on past Cristobal to Dolly personally.  Love this old movie that so many have panned, but really a fun movie. Seems Dolly liked sneaking around with Burt... the way those waves are sneaking around with Cousin Sal...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwL5MPvz5VM


As for Saharan Dust here's a link for the car lovers who read this blog and know quite a few NASCAR people who do... Posting a link to a fun blog on what is basically stock car races across African kicking up a whole lot of African Dust along the way.

And be aware that although I did watch a good part of these videos (they are compelling and addictive I warn you especially if you are into old cars) I didn't watch them all so if something pops up that upsets you...I'm not aware of any antelope that may have been injured during this Datson filled Stock Car Race across Africa... just saying...

http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/2012/08/25/hemmings-saturday-cinema-dust-dust-and-more-dust-the-1969-east-african-safari-rally/

For the rest of the day I'll be going through all the things I need to go through. I'll be watching the wave weave it's way westward and watching to see what the NHC does at 2PM when they update their Tropical Discussion. I'll be watching to see if it becomes an Invest on the Navy site. I'll be trying to figure out if the smell will ever go away from the wicker dresser that I spray painted or if I need to break down and get a new dresser :(

Life goes on as an amazing man once said...

And, today I'm also thinking on Hurricane Camille that came ashore 45 years ago. I posted a lot of pics on Twitter yesterday when I was surprised so few weren't writing about it. Can't get much bigger than Camille.

Remember this: Camille is important because..........it was a weak tropical wave that moved west unable to find it's groove until it made it to warm water and more conducive conditions and it never looked back. That sort of set up COULD happen this year. Especially worrisome is the fact that it was a strong August Cold Front that pulled Category 5 Hurricane Camille towards landfall and she kept on going far inland. 

Note the official discussion above shows Camille's path before she was Camille. Most maps show her forming later on. Compare and contrast and understand that Camille was a wave dealing with negative conditions until it found conducive conditions.

You probably don't remember I'm sure that once Camille caught that front...she moved in tandem with it and caused inland flooding far to the north of landfall.

This image below is from RICHMOND, VIRGINIA.

Seems not much has changed since 1969... 

You have waves so stubborn they make it across the ocean in their incipient stages despite negative conditions... then they rapidly intensify over very warm water (in this case south of Cuba and moving into the GOM) and then there is the question of a trough in August and how strong that trough really is (think Hurricane Andrew also) and again..........if a wave is approaching from the SE a trough over the East Coast sweeps it out to sea. If the storm is down to the South the trough pulls it in like a magnet towards landfall.

Remember that while complaining about our slow season. Andrew was the end of August, a very weak wave that many did not believe would stay alive and that they discussed dropping at the NHC however held onto it a bit longer for continuity and... in case it did in fact find more favorable conditions down the road ..........and it did.

Worth noting that on www.spaghettimodels.com Mike has a group of sites showing various data on water temperatures. Down left... way worth becoming familiar with......... water is way hot ready for some wave to pop if it gets there... the way Camille did....

That my friends is the story of two Category 5 Storms...oh add in the Labor Day Storm. Not 1 of these 3 storms started out as a hurricane fast and furious... they were weak, west bound waves that intensified close to land and went down into the history books.

If you don't learn from history you are doomed to repeat it. Do not be surprised IF and when something big does form and it makes landfall breaking our current US drought of land falling hurricanes.

Besos Bobbi

Ps Also for that matter Hurricane Alicia that slammed into Texas in 1983. If you were living there then........you remember I'm sure.