Invest 96L & the Models - Forrest Gump on Models & Ted Ginn Jr and Family

Going to show an array of models here. Some are more trusted than others, but all are looked at for their different nuances and past history of giving accurate data. Some models work best with strong developed storms whereas other models work well with shallow storms. Some models are more accurate in higher latitudes and others work best deep in the tropics. Yes everyone hears about the EURO and the GFS, but there are more models and they change so often than from one model run to another you never know for sure what you will get. Consistency as well as accuracy is the key to knowing which model is best handling the area being investigated.

Then there is the Canadian... takes it into the Atlantic not the GOM

You have the GFS and it's ensemble models ..

a whole lot like the whole Ginn family being drafted by the Dolphins along with Ted Ginn Jr

(who does by the way play well but not in Miami...)

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/football/ted-ginn-jr-one-of-dolphins-biggest-draft-busts-sa/nWCRg/ still playing 8 years later http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/10453/ted-ginn-jr

To show you the models that came before this image above PLEASE click on this link:

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=4&year=2014&title=96

So far Invest 96L has targeted the following places for landfall:

PR and the VI area

Miami and the Florida Keys.

New Orleans.

Antilles...bother Greater and Lower..

Carolina Coast

Atlantic Fish storm 

and...for my all time favorite

Guyana and WSW into Columbia...

Again until a real center is defined and we have data from dropsondes and recon every model run may continue to spit out a new target for a possible Tropical Storm Cristobal. 

Example of data received when dropsondes are dropped into the eye of a storm.

Until then..............waiting on the next model run is like eating a box of chocolates to misquote old Forrest Gump and we are sneak a peak the same way we sneak just one chocolate and hope it's a good one...  

It's not one of my favorite movies, but it is filmed in one of my favorite cities Savannah. Sometimes a few lines in a movie stay in our collective memory for years and this is true for that movie. And models for early undeveloped waves are often like a box of chocolate... each chocolate different and if you are never really sure what you will get.

"Forrest Gump: My momma always said, "Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJh59vZ8ccc


Yup so true and remember that model output on a developing system is a lot like a box of chocolates. Why you ask? I'll tell you why... keep reading. You see without a real center... a closed, well developed center with strong convection around it the models can only take their best guess at where the center is and IF there is a center ...where that center might go.  Sort of working blind like staring down at a box of Godiva and the cheat sheet got lost and you're not sure which one to bite in to..

And, often the models do a darn good job. Sometimes....they do not. But, that is not the models fault as much as we are expecting them to do what until recently was almost impossible and that is to predict where and when a system will develop and where it will go after it develops.

Invest 96L this morning on close up visible imagery.

Funktop Floater shows an oozy situation for the convection.. does it have 1 center?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

If I was baking bread I'd say the dough has not risen yet...

On visible imagery we can see how really close Invest 96L is to the system behind it. That's not always good. Only so much energy there to utilize and often close systems begin to interact and energy flows from one to the other. This is a system not a Tropical Storm and therefore it is still in the early stages of development.

On the Water Vapor Loop you can see where the greatest amount of...water vapor is..

This system is so close to South America it makes me always think on famous hurricanes like Flora in 1963 and Tomas in 2012. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Invest 96L is a  WEAK, DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE MODELS FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

Keep watching....

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

I'll be back later today if there are significant changes in Invest 96L. But tell you one thing you can see from the get go... it has slipped south... forecast to pull up but for now it has slipped south. No longer are the 2 areas of interest on the NHC page side by side...

Also note the future tracks are no longer as different as they used to be...both WNW into the Caribbean and the Islands. Originally the X model out was forecast to make a sharper turn NW.

Bobbi Storm's Bottom Line:

The answer is not in the models but blowing in the wind... inside the Invest itself.

Better data will give us better models...

Better consolidation of convection & a closed circulation will make for more reliable model output.

Eastern Caribbean is not a user friendly place...strong winds always... especially now.

Time will tell.........keep watching.  Also...keep your eyes on the area off the coast of the Carolinas where an old front died out and not all of it was swept out to sea.. it's lingering..

Enjoy a song from PETER, PAUL and MARY... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ld6fAO4idaI

Besos Bobbi

Ps.........regarding Ted Ginn the fault was not with Ted Ginn Jr but with the coach who made such an erratic comment about his very wonderful family being drafted with him....(huh???) after passing over other high rated draft candidates for Ted Ginn who was projected to be lucky to go in the 2nd round. Was a real "HUH???" moment .. over time he has shown himself to be a NFL player... he has his good moments, he has his bad moments... a lot like the models.....