Cristobal Trying to Get a Name... Watches & Warnings May Need to be Issued for Bahamas. FL Pay ATTN! GFS Goes West

The above image shows the weak, disorganized system & the trough moving down towards it.

Shame it's not a developed storm or the trof would catch it more likely.

For now it's taking some of the moisture off of the top.. but not enough.

The most likely poorly organized center is on the North coast of Hispaniola around here...

So what do I think?
Note the discussion from the NHC:

" Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with little advance notice."

That is what the NHC said at 5PM during their special statement. They said a lot more, but that is the salient part of their discussion.

Early this morning the Invest looked like this after a particularly hard night of obviously partying in PR and VI.

Compare and contrast how it looks now that it has passed through the Mona Passage and is hovering around the tip of the Dominican Republic.

Now let's look at the bigger picture.

Everything south of 30N is going East. That includes parts of the front that is dipping down kicking off Tstorms in my area today. Everything south of there is moving West as the high is strongly in place. As a weak, developing system our soon to be Cristobal will continue going WNW scraping away along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. IF it had been a strong hurricane we would worry that the high mountains would destroy some of it's circulation. But...it currently doesn't have much of a circulation to destroy and if anything the interaction of the rain and the mountains enhances convection. This can be seen on short term loops. 

Note as it moved over Hispaniola convection kicked UP. 

Now let's look UP stream over the US where the front is moving across the Carolinas and out to sea. This is not a MASSIVE cold front. It is not a deep south cold front. It is moving off the mid Atlantic and the High pressure may get enhanced blocking Cristobal from catching it's ride out to sea. It may then stall in the Bahamas once it emerges off the North Coast of Hispaniola (when is not set in stone..or where) and stay a while on a Bahama Vacation... enjoying very nice bath tub type water that makes the Northern tourists all squeamish.

Put this into motion.

 

The low is hanging back circulating over Illinois and not moving in tandem yet with the front.

The orientation of the air racing down towards the "system" is not strong enough to pick it up.

Not yet. Maybe down the road. Maybe a stronger system.

But not strong enough today...to grab a system vacationing 

Note the N Coast of Dominica Republic has some mtns...but not many. 

So let's talk models. The GFS model has joined the lesser trusted models with a western bias. That means......it takes it towards Florida not out to sea ...in THIS model run.

What I find interesting about the blue highlighted models is that they do not simply head towards FL but they keep on going into the GOM or up making a 2nd landfall along the Big Bend coastline of Florida. They seem awfully sure it will not catch this trof but the next one.

The models highlighted by the red area take it obviously out to sea. The westbound models seem very sure. IS the difference because there are two paths or because some models are going with the old center and others have latched onto the center that may be further west and south.

If the high builds in an does block it from moving more to the north it will sit and spin over very warm water.

Look at those reds in the  Bahamas. This is not where you want a developing tropical system to park itself for a few days. 

Old GFS pretty colored grid... shows the storm parked off shore of South Florida.

The local NWS for Miami still sees the trough picking up the storm.

That could change check with this link often if you live in Miami

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Miami&state=FL&site=MFL&lat=25.77&lon=-80.2#.U_fSxPldW7I

Keep checking with the NWS for their most recent update that will change as the storm changes and if the NHC begins to issue advisories.

My biggest concern here is a "what if" the storm barely develops and then starts to intensify as it is sitting off the coast of South Florida in the area highlighted in blue.

This loop not only shows moisture but where he moisture is moving... WNW... for now.

IF you live in South Florida...

Go shopping for anything you may need to update your hurricane supplies.

You may not need them in the end, but it's better than running out at 10PM Sunday evening.

Trust me on this. Been there...done that...as nuts.

And...again if Cristobal misses you there is always Dolly..

Remember September is coming... that is for certain.

Prepare now.. while there still is water and tuna on the shelves.........

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. I'll be back after Shabbos .... curious to see what will be there.. vs now. Til then check in to see what Phil has to say from WSVN and he does a great job of breaking down the discussion into a logical clear cut way to understand it. Many mets make it all about them as if they are putting out tropical fires all on their own. Phil talks about the weather!

http://www.wsvn.com/link/692618/phil-factor-blog