Tropical Storm CristobalISH VS 6.1 Napa Valley Earthquake. Quake wins! Cristobal still forming...........stalling.

Going to try and keep this short and sweet today. Not much to add on TS Cristobal that is a minimal tropical storm that still has multiple centers and is totally lopsided.  The above loop shows it practically parked over the Bahamas. The center that the NHC is following is NOT underneath the convection.

At 8 AM they upgraded TD4 to Cristobal and relocated the center. Well, officially the center relocated over newly developed convection that has since waned. Oh well.

At 11 AM they said the movement had slowed. Understand that is a forecast movement.. doubt it is moving 7 mph let alone 5 and doubt it only has one center.

My NOT AN ARTIST image of the day points out the convection is not yet where the center is..

Yes you can see on the naked side of the convection the banding... ISH. 

It's an ugly mess right now. I'm calling it Coyote Ugly rather than Cristobal.

An older pic but well shows oh not ready for prime time it is...

You can drop all of the water you want on this storm  & it won't spin right.

It's a mess........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNq5mAqp-IE

Do you know why?

Because from the start it has had multiple centers...still does. 

Until one center takes control its going to sit out there and spin over hot water.

Needs to be properly aligned with convection over 1 center.

In theory one way or another Cristobal will find a way to develop.....

I wouldn't bet much money on it.. but it is forecast to pull together

...somewhere over hot water....

(unless there is upwelling... got it Cris.. upwelling...) 

;)

Seriously it does have ONE thing going for it and that is a heck of a lot of warm, tropical moisture feeding into it from the S .. SW...

High to the North pressing down trapping it temporarily

High to the East still digging.. some high pressure to West even.

So it's trapped pulling up moisture (see red arrows go all the way to the Pacific)

This can be seen in the 11 AM well written discussion on Cristobal

"The overall cloud pattern of Cristobal has changed little since

the previous advisory. Flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Cristobal
earlier this morning indicated that the low-level and mid-level
circulations were not vertically aligned, suggesting that the
inner-core wind field of the cyclone is still trying to form"

As for models and where is it going?  I'm not gong to post models until it forms. It's a joke and a game otherwise and got better things to do than to hype this model or that when we don't have a fully formed storm with one true center.

Now what?

One thing it does have going for it is the tremendous moisture feed it is getting from the South in ALL directions.

Comes up from the Pacific... from the ITCZ... it's got what to work with if it pulls together.

Today...it has not pulled together yet. 

It is as my friends on Twitter said #ThereisNOHurricane ... and most models do take it out to sea though that could change if and when it really develops and we have a real center to work with... vs one that is being relocated or guessed at... let's keep it real here..

In world news there was a 6.1 or 6.0 Earthquake in NAPA.

The ground in NAPA is rich farm land from a river basin.

The ground cannot handle a 6.0 as well as rockier places with solid ground.

Rich alluvial areas have more amplification with ground movement and stronger damage.

Sorry but in my world a 6.1 earthquake in California is more interesting than a wanna be TS that even the NHC can't be sure of it's true center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241453.shtml  Discussion... 

Wind probs: Raleigh is still a 34.. everyone from Bahamas to Miami to NE are in it... 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/241449.shtml?

Official cone that could easily change if the storm intensifies or relocates to a better neighborhood. I prefer this cone ... I hear the beach calling me... and it's singing...One way or another...

Just keep repeating #ThereisNOHurricane !! 

But...................there was one heck of an Earthquake in NAPA .. California.. 

Any meteorologist who tells you for certain what this storm will do is guessing. Odds are always with "it will go out to sea" and it may. Personally, I"d like to see it develop into a real entity so we can have a really reliable forecast.........

Til then............going shopping for jeans for my daughter. And...seems another daughter doesn't know where to find me so guessing if I stay off of Facebook there is no ice bucket challenge right???

Besos Bobbi

Ps...to everyone on Twitter who follows, talks and adds something to the discussion ... THANKS!

Besos Bobbi

Song of the day...way better than buttercup..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMp6v07-9U4