TD 4 Forms. MIAMI? SC? NC? Out to Sea??? Katrina & Isaac.. A look back at Hurricane History

Briefest update for 11 PM as nothing has changed ... obviously.

What is the most important graphic tonight is not the 5 day cone but this one.

The 11 PM discussion had more questions than it answered. I don't need them to tell me what the models show I need them to tell me what they see and what they believe will happen. However... it's hard to see what will happen until you have a better defined system and a better handle on what it will look like two days from now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/240250.shtml?

Most important part of this discussion:

"The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/8."

"As the trough begins to lift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in

36 to 48 hours. The track guidance becomes very divergent at that
time."

"As mentioned in the previous discussion, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal."

Note there are watches/warnings up for the Bahamas. Tropical Storm ones.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/240241.shtml?

Other wise no difference in my thinking so continue on and please read a little bit about some BEFORE scenarios of 2 famous hurricanes that started out as poorly defined systems with weak centers in the same general area.. Katrina in the Central Bahamas and Issac in 2012 in the Florida Straits.

Tropical Depression #4 formed in the Bahamas this afternoon. After many attempts by recon to find an exact center they finally found one!

Sort of at a loss for words on what to say (rare I know) because this set up is so deja vu and it rarely ends well. Sometimes it does, but had this funny feeling the last few days and kept thinking it was gas. No..just kidding. Honestly fixated on how Jeanne formed and realized today while going through old papers I had printed out... it was more a memory on how Katrina formed in 2005.

So... let me put up a post from almost 9 years ago to the day. . .

Seems they were having an awfully hard time finding the center. A low level center that is as it had what appeared to be several centers.  Doesn't that sound familiar? I'll highlight the salient parts in yellow remember THIS IS FROM 2005..................KATRINA in the BAHAMAS:


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

FORECASTER STEWART


Doesn't that sound about as difficult as it has been pinning the cords on the center of TD4? I don't make this stuff up... it just happens as it is often very difficult for a depression to form especially when part of it is over Haiti and another part is over Cuba or maybe the Dominican Republic and moving into warmer water with better conditions ahead. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

So many shades of yellow...gray ...gold, choose a color.

Katrina did in fact more to the West, did become a hurricane and did move into the Gulf of Mexico. This system is NOT Katrina, though the constant use of the name KARINA has been bugging me all week.

NOW LETS LOOK AT TD 4 2014..........TODAY... 9 YEARS LESS ONE DAY FROM THE ABOVE DISCUSSION. Highlighting in yellow the salient ...similar parts. No...let's go with another color. And, why are they not using CAPS? Curious.. anyway...continue reading please.

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.

Doesn't that sound a bit familiar. Storm just formed. They have been looking for a center for days. It's close in to South Florida over the Bahamas and confidence is low in the track until they have more data and the system looks better. There is a trough... currently in 2014 they have more confidence in the trough then they did in 2005. Time will tell won't it?

Now.... let's look back 2 years ago to 2012. A wave in the Florida Straits was having a hard time coming together. It looked so similar on my computer I had to make sure that was a saved image and not one of TD4 yesterday... except in a slightly different spot.

ISAAC 2012... TWO YEARS AGO

Isaac AFTER he pulled it together in the GOM 2012

Doesn't warm water really do wonderful things for a tropical system?

Now let's look at Katrina heading towards North Dade...Aventura...Hollywood Area..

Now Katrina over the GOM...

Now...back to the future...or back to the present.

TD 4 forecast to become Tropical Storm Cristobal and possibly Hurricane Cristobal is in the process of putting his finishing touches on this wardrobe. So far he has had a lack of style ...no form... he's been a mess.

I highlighted in yellow where he is pulling it together...still lacks the total form on all sides of a real storm.

It looks as if someone erased the left side of TD4... expect that to fill in over the next few days.

Messy...very messy and most likely still some multiple vortexes tho we do have a center.

May I add this is really a pathetic looking system currently.

But, pathetic looking systems have a way of turning into Katina, Fran, Isaac... etc.......

Now let's look at the models.. 

Going with the messiest of models for the messy tropical depression

Making it big AND giving you the URL so you can check it yourself..

Ain't that a kick in the head??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSnSL03NR0Q

My thoughts:

I've seen models put up across the US that show this storm most likely hitting:

Miami

FLL/WPB

Melbourne

SC

NC

OBX

and lastly

OUT TO SEA...

I know it's a TV stations job to protect it's viewers but it seems their job sometimes it so scare their viewers. 

No hype here...

Yes it reminds me of the way Katrina, Isaac and Jeanne developed. It is not even Cristobal tonight and at the rate it's going I wouldn't put money on tomorrow morning at 5AM though sometimes the tropics surprise you!

If you live in Miami...........or South Florida PAY ATTENTION!!

If you live anywhere in the general cone of this very slow moving storm... PAY ATTENTION!

The worst thing you can do is make a preparation list and not use it until the D storm or the E storm.

When you look at wind probabilities my chances in Raleigh are as almost high as my chances in Miami and there are a whole lot of cities along the way...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/232040.shtml?
(explanatin of statistics below)

FROM 5 PM...ORIGINAL ADVISORY
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   8(23)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   5(19)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   7(27)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   7(26)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   5(27)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)  10(22)   3(25)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)  22(28)  14(42)   3(45)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   2(15)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  21(41)   5(46)   1(47)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)  12(28)   3(31)   1(32)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GREAT EXUMA    34  1  10(11)  13(24)  10(34)   7(41)   2(43)   X(43)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAN SALVADOR   34  4  51(55)  12(67)   6(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X  10(10)   8(18)   5(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34 29   2(31)   2(33)   2(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)

GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

Bobbi Storm's Bottom Line:

If you live in this area... prepare for and worry on TD4

Oh..............and there are going to be big waves up and down the coast eventually...

First TD4 has to get it's act together and it's doing so slowly...

....but based on past experience once it finds it's groove... it may surprise us.

Hang in there...do your thing...watch the weather and Twitter & your favorite WXR people online..

Prepare a "to do list" and prepare to go into action if the models change.

But until TD4 pulls it together any long, in depth model discussion is silly & it would be a lie..

as the models will change often until we get a well developed eye.

There is the first front moving down off the coast of Carolina... weak...

There is a 2 where the stronger trough is

The number 4 is for... um... 4... eventually Cristobal

Now.........look at this unconventional image I am giving you.

I did this free form snip so you will ONLY look at TD 4 and what most likely will catch it..

Unless something changes...the BIG BAD system up pike SHOULD take Cristobal eventually.

Problem is in timing.. The first trof will not get him as he is too weak..just a TD4.. 

an over achieving wave... but eventually the trof should get him.

Besos Bobbi

Ps................The fly in the ointment is the weak condition of TD 4 and the weak steering currents that open up more possibilities for low confidence tracks than most other storms with a set up like this. So.. it's an ever changing, free stying sort of system right now... go with the flow and check in on it often until it has passed you by... In Miami I check and trust Phil Ferro on Channel 7... WSVN and in Raleigh I trust Wes... oh and we have this channel here 14 that covers weather EVERY 10 MINUTES :)

It's called Weather on the Ones...

http://www.wncn.com/weather

http://www.wsvn.com/link/692618/phil-factor-blog

https://www.facebook.com/WeatherontheOnes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTvTaibYgpM

Aaron Holder...a  Miami Beach original. Watched him grow up... saw him recently at my daughter's in NY and he's in Atlanta...in school... and singing every where he goes... 

The best is yet to come... for TD4... remember that...