Storms in Miami, Sleet in Raleigh .. Waiting on the Cherry Blossoms & Dogwood to Bloom..

Putting this up in the color red as that is the color on the NWS site for "changed discussion" . . .

WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING ABOUT THIS STORM IS THAT THE STORM TYPE...
TRACK... AND CLASSICAL DAMMING PATTERN (AT LEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE
STORM) STRONGLY SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED IN
THE DAMMING REGION. TYPICALLY... THERE WOULD BE MORE SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WITH A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED SNOW AND
RAIN... TO ALL RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. LED BY THE NAM... THERE
HAS BEEN A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT DEPICTED ALL ALONG WITH THE
STORM WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SNOW FROM ITS FORECAST.

NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON US... MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING AROUND TO DEPICT MORE SNOW/SLEET THAN BEFORE BETWEEN 00Z/06Z
OR SO IN THE NW TONIGHT... THEN ICING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THIS SEEMS
VERY REASONABLE AND IT MAY YET BE UNDERDONE WITH THE SNOW/SLEET
(FROZEN SIDE) OF THE STORM.

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A FORECAST BATTLE OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
AND COLD NOSES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Frustrating sort of winter for forecasters... if you are waiting for a system to be "bearing down on us" then it's not much of a forecast as much as Reality TV style forecasting. 

Forecasters really do try hard to get it right. They work to serve their clients, viewers and residents of their discussion area ... but ... weather really does happen in real time and this winter has been a hard winter to forecast.

Really beautiful atmospheric ballet going on as it reaches down.. grabs the moisture, scoops up said moisture and swirls it around towards the North and up the coast. 


Currently it's sleeting in Raleigh...though the radar and TWC keeps saying it's raining... I went out there, sleet bounced off my hand and onto the ground and is covering the skylight. 








I'm in the green area... but it's sleeting. Should turn over to rain soon...and then sleet again. There was talk of snow but no one knows for sure. A lot of discussion on the warm nose, but have to tell you my nose is currently really cold. I'm far south of the I-85 Corridor and yet the guy on Time Warner's taped weather segment just told me all of the sleet should be north of I-85. 


In Florida Tampa didn't get slammed as bad as many thought it would today and the Miami area got hit hard with a wild squall line. 


Note the picture on the top and bottom... one is how it looked on radar and one is how it looked as my son was driving across the top of the Cloverleaf Flyover in North Miami Beach.











The weather in Florida is part of the same system that is affecting North Carolina ...








http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

watch it in motion with the link above




Greg Fishel, Raleigh's Weather Guru, just pointed out that the temperatures are much colder currently than the predicted temperature were supposed to be. No.. I didn't need him to tell me that. I can feel that myself. 




The reason weather is so exciting and interesting is that it is hard to predict. That's just the truth. Some years, like this year, weather doesn't fit up with CLIMO... models can be off and forecasters can be nervous of making rash assumptions or go out on a limb with a gut forecast that is not backed up by models or NWS forecast discussion. Some years are easier to do forecasts for and other years more difficult..this is one of them.


With reference to the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season ... there is a lot of discussion on if El Nino is or isn't forming. You can read the link below for a longer, official discussion. 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html


For the El Nino watchers who are trying to make early calls on an El Nino forming... here's a good link to save, watch and judge for yourself.


http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/ani-sst.html


The jury is still out and remember there are different types of El Ninos and depending on where it sets up, how strong it takes over makes a big difference as to whether it will affect the Atlantic Hurricane Basin a little or a lot. There's the one that lingers right off the coast creating fishing problems for places like Peru.. and the ones that are in the Central Pacific ... just so many differences from one year to another.


Using the good old Atlantic Hurricane Satellite Loop you can see the transfer of energy from Florida up the coast in this long, colorful loop.





Again..note how it forms in real time.


WRAL just went live on air with their crews driving around Raleigh looking for the sleet up close and personal. Maybe they want to check my skylight? It's patchy... its sleeting here, raining there.. or just a wintry mix all over the place.


If you are tired of gray days... Spring is coming.


Read what I wrote earlier about the Cherry Blossom Festival... it's a good thought. As for me... I'm going to spray some of my favorite perfume on and go make Turkey Burgers for my daughter for dinner so we can get her back to NCState before it starts to snow..depending on that warm nose the NWS discussion is waxing poetic on today.


Besos Bobbi... 


http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/03/will-cherry-blossoms-bloom-on-time-only.html