Waiting on Recon... to name or not to name? Make it a TD Maybe.....TD 1?

Not everything is so black and white and that's the problem with this Tropical Disturbance ... Does it have one main circulation and or ..is it still in the process of forming and too early to tell? Recon will tell that story and they will tell it soon. 

Like everyone else in my world we are watching and waiting on recon.  It is possible that at 5pm the NHC could make this tropical disturbance the first Tropical Depression of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I think it would be a prudent decision personally for many reasons. For a TD to form all you have to show is that it has a closed circulation ... on a simple level things are always more complex. A closed circulation at the surface level vs mid-level. 

What do you see?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

This area of the FL/AL line is often calls to people up in the middle part of the country who go down and enjoy the beautiful beaches, some fun and sun and a whole lot of partying.

The Urban Dictionary has this to say about that:

Redneck Riviera  Share on twitter Share on facebook Share on more

129 up, 42 down

The Redneck Rivera is located on the Emerald Coast in the The Florida Panhandle city of Panama City and Panama City Beach Florida. Also called LA...Lower Alabama but most affectionately called the Redneck Riviera. A strip of surf and sand that stretches some 95-miles along Florida's Highway #98. The most beautiful beaches in the world. Sugar white sand, gently washed by an azure sea. Home of the best spring breaks, water parks for the kids, tattoo parlors, beer joints, crab shacks, burger barns and tee shirt boutiques. Plus more beach trash and trinkets than you can imagine. There are high-rise condominiums with beautiful drunk skinny girls on each floor. Panama City Beach makes tailgating at a NASCAR infield appear hoity-toity. The always-heavy beach traffic is a blend of pick-up trucks, motorcycles, Mercedes Benz, SUV's and Beamers. Perhaps that's the charm of PC Beach – it's so funky, it's fun.

Just so you know and maybe we can get a good song about the FL/AL line in Country Music out of this?

Great line in the blog linked below... it's so funky it's fun!

http://onsomebeachsomewhere.blogspot.com/2010_04_01_archive.html

It would be prudent for some sort of watch to go up in case this storm ramps up rapidly into something more than she is now and .... that happens often in this neck of the woods.

Storms have a long history of intensifying once they find their groove...just prior to landfall.

If she has a closed circulation at the surface it would be prudent to issue advisories to properly give people a heads up.

As rain no one pays attention... if it says TD#1 no one is going to close the hotel, no one is going to cancel the vacation...but they will pay attention.

Doesn't hurt from my perspective.

Some models take this to a 50 mph Tropical Storm..others lose it or it stays as a poor weak system forever trying to find fame.

As for my bigger concern.... IF she moves more to the LEFT.. takes a more northerly track up the backbone of the Appalachians there could be inland flooding, heightened severe storms risk and a mess no one saw coming. The tracks pretty much cover the Carolinas and most of Georgia.. so everyone needs to stay informed especially anyone traveling on I95 later this week.

Keep watching. I'll be back after 5PM or 8PM when we know what we know..

Til then...enjoy the music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSbqSWlV2ow <--blake div="" shelton="" song="">

Besos Bobbi

Additional reading on the area..

http://www.southernreader.com/SouthRead7.8.html