Strengthening Tropical Disturbance Moving towards Florida & My Thoughts On TWC

In general the pattern has been sort of stuck...to make this as simple to understand as possible. Storms over Oklahoma, which I might add are blooming early in the day today, and the slow moving tropical disturbance moving towards Florida. And, I do mean S L O W L Y moving. Currently, despite the models being concerned all week with the Panhandle and the Big Bend it seems that for now Ft Myers Beach is under the gun or as some like to say in the cross hairs.

Looks like it should be a RED Circle to me... but the NHC has it at Orange and 50%

Up close and person the Tropical Disturbance is a messy area of intense convection with a semblance of a circulation trying to form. A twisting visible on the radar, however that does not mean there is any closed circulation nor that it will get one before landfall.




Do you see any real circulation there? No, there is no closed circulation there. A closed circulation could form and it might be updated to a Depression if it does. But, until it does it is carrying with it huge, copious amounts of tropical moisture.

Officially there is a 50% chance of a system forming..

Going to highlight the salient part of the discussion from the NHC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

What they are basically saying is they may name it or call it a subtropical low and hedge their bets and cover themselves as this may create a big mess... may being the operative word still. It will need to maintain the color in the image above for a longer period for it to get some respect.

And, there is a timing problem here as the NHC says it will move over Florida on Thursday. I can see that. What I can't see is the NWS says that North Carolina is under increased chances of severe weather from the same system also on Thursday. You can't have it both ways.

They are beginning to add in the heavier rain for Friday and that's good as in earlier forecasts it was mostly Thursday, but the timing on that just seems really off.  Can't be on FMB on Thursday and Raleigh on Thursday unless you have a flight booked on Southwest....

What do I think?

If this is energy from Barbara expect this tropical disturbance or possibly a tropical depression to cross the narrowest part of Florida on her way NE up the coast. That would be in keeping with the current possible track and the projected model tracks.



She is going green on the Funktop which I am putting up in real time and will update as the day goes on.


Either way she is looking more and more tropical as if she is going to come together after all.. maybe.



Either way unless she intensifies rapidly and pulls it more together, not impossible to believe after the way she is pulled it together this morning... her "weather area" is on the East Side aka Right and there are possibilities of tornadoes popping up with this type of storm crossing this region of Florida.

A different time of year, but worth reading and remembering.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996josephin.html



Compare and contrast the path that is projected for the possible Andrea that started out from the remnants of Barbara. This storm may need a shrink more than a forecaster when all is said and done.

Keep watching, I'm not a betting person but if I was I would bet on at least an upgrade to Red Circle!

Below is my .50 cents on TWC and their "debate to chaser or not"

just my thoughts...

To chase or not to chase... seriously move on and cover the weather. They are showing wild video of tornadoes from storm chasers in the name of a "Chase Debate"

So we are told to  make a decision on whether storm chasers should get "close to tornadoes to gather crucial information to study tornadoes" (a TWC quote) or not to chase. I ask the question why  TWC is doing it and the ONLY answer remains they are doing it for ratings and entertainment purposes. So, they should ask themselves that question and get back to covering the weather. They were ONLY out there doing their "Tornado Hunt" that makes it sound like they are shooting elephants out on the Savannahs of Africa vs "chasing" or trying to be part of the chase and gain ratings. Plain and simple. I have been the biggest supporter of TWC at times. Heck..it was used in my divorce hearing as if I was having an affair with some tall, dark handsome guy... and no I was not involved with Dave Schwartz. But, there are times you have to be honest and since they have joined forces with NBC and moved more into the entertainment arena it's ALL ABOUT RATINGS vs All About Weather.

Reel Rivals to go after the fishing community...though I sometimes watch to catch glimpses of my beautiful Florida Keys.  It Could Happen To You series is purely entertainment and a soft porn version of disasters.  "WEATHER THAT CHANGED THE WORLD" an epic battle between weather and...

TWC changed Winter Storms to raise their ratings and gather more viewers. It is human nature to want a name for a face or a voice on the phone or a screen name on the Internet. And, we ramp up our attention when something gets a name in the tropics... "a broad area of low pressure" in the tropics is BORING... but if you name it  ANDREA and it's a minimal Tropical Storm everyone goes into hype and panic mode.

So, dear TWC please spare me the hypocritical discussion where you show storm video from great chasers on the moral discussion of whether to chase or not to chase as you being out was for ratings plain and simple and nothing else.

Chasing a hurricane is not like picking a spot to hunker down and cover a hurricane. You find a spot that offers protection with enough knowledge to know you will not be in the worst of it and you move your position in real time in concordance with the actual movement of the large, lumbering hurricane. Not the same as tornado chasing ...but then you would know that if you called it a "Tornado Chase" rather than a "Tornado Hunt" and yes I have a love/hate relationship with TWC. All of us do in the industry and I'm annoyed and tired of them sharing wild video by storm chasers that sent in video and they then go on to tell people they shouldn't be taking the video.

They are at their best when they are covering the weather, explaining it and doing it the way they used to vs an entertainment vehicle for anything that might catch anyone interested in weather for any reason ... "epic battle between man and weather" is an advertising campaign that the late great Michael Todd would have enjoyed when he released his "epic" movie "Around the World in 80 Days" way back when. When they are good they are very, very good and when they are bad they are awful. And, they are at the best when Greg Forbes is on explaining complicated weather with Carl Parker or when they bring on Bryan Norcross...the man...when it comes to hurricanes.

They may need a corporate shrink more than the once and future Andrea to figure out just what they are and who they want to be ... because they seem all over the place lately.

Nuff said. A crude way of saying this is "shit or get off the pot" you can't have it both ways. Watch for TWC to name Tornadoes next year... somewhere in back offices they are trying to figure out a way to extend the Winter Storm names to Twister Season..trust me.

People want weatherman to inform, no one wants a preachy weatherman!

This is Hurricane Season for me and I'm covering the hurricanes..or weak tropical disturbances. It is worth mentioning the flooding in Alton, Mo and mentioning the flooding is going to get worse before it gets better. Especially............if some tropical disturbance moves inland up the Mississippi later in the season. That would be a problem, a big one. Some of the worst flooding we have ever had in the United States was as a result of a large, wet hurricane dumping huge amounts of copious tropical moisture far inland on unsuspecting towns who thought hurricanes only happen in Miami or Galveston.

Besos Bobbi
Ps... Let's say the problem with TWC is like when you were in high school and in your senior year and you fell deeply in love with the most wonderful guy in the whole wide world who was sweet, smart, sensitive and a little cocky and then he goes off to college and comes back like some egotistical, beer drinking, hard partying guy with attitude and you wonder what happened to that guy you fell in love with once upon a time. They want to hang with the guys while still chasing the girls and they think they know it all and want to be everywhere at once while ignoring their studies and losing the cosmic charm they had when you first men them. And, you spend half a life time wishing the old guy would come back and they never really do ... because they are gone like the past is gone. And, Daisy moves on...  of course sometimes they have really cute sons who are like they were ...but that's a different story. TWC that we all grew up on and loved is gone and has been replaced by a channel that often, but not always, should have a disclaimer that reads "for entertainment purposes only"