Andrea? It's Complicated... A Complicated Mess

For a while today it looked really good. A sense of structure... long band to the south that looked like it was forming and then...whoosh...gone.

The real "center" is the indented area to the left of the convection between Cuba and the Yucatan. That is debatable as some people believe it is hanging back and reforming. Others see the models take it towards the Big Bend of Florida. Others in NC are worrying on the tropical moisture moving into the CAROLINAS and even a bit of worrying it could stall out.. but they think it will be out of here by Saturday.

It's like 7 blind men and an elephant that wants to be called Andrea.

Friday.. "rainy day with tropical moisture in the area from the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean" is the official current forecast.

In Tampa, FL the official forecast is showing tropical trouble of sorts or... maybe just a lot of rain.



Official Discussion:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE
GULF AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

THE PANHANDLE BEACHES MAY SEE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
MAKE INLAND FLOODING A CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR AREA ON BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

Who do you believe? What do you believe?

Panama City, FL:

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES...OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG MAY
OCCUR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE
GULF AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

THE PANHANDLE BEACHES MAY SEE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
MAKE INLAND FLOODING A CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR AREA ON BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
ALSO...CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

Augusta, GA discussion shows a concern on flooding:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PULL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF MORE ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS THE MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS SC TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 2.0 OR HIGHER GIVE RISE TO FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING
RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO FOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. BY SATURDAY THE
AREA IS RETURNED TO A MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH ANY
ACTIVITY LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

And we will wait until tomorrow to see what they say then.. tonight there is a 40% chance of development. Models converge on FL but there is a lot of divergence on strength.. a disturbance, depression or a storm.

Seems like we have been looking at this graphic for days.....and we have

I have some concerns here... concerned a weak circulation center that will be tracked will follow the models and the "weather center" is going to swamp the Everglades, West Broward and Miami-Dade up to Palm Beach and everyone is going to be shocked cause they thought it was going to the Panhandle.

You see... systems like this are weak and not well formed and the weather is EVERYWHERE.

Also ...twisters are possible far away from the center that the NHC may be tracking.

It's like when you go to a bar to watch the sunset from the roof and you see the menu..

You know you are going to have a drink...

but which drink are you going to have?

Now I know I am going to have the one that has Hurricane in the name... I think.

Yes, someone ...somewhere is going to get really wet with a chance of possible heavy flooding.. 

.....but where and when? 

Keep watching.. more tomorrow morning!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbi