Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

...Barbara nearing hurricane strength... Still Forecast to Move into the Gulf of Mexico

There is so much to say today I don't know where to begin. So, I'll just jump in... try and keep up!

The above images is the track and the location on visible imagery of Tropical Storm Barbara in the Eastern Pacific that is currently forecast to make it into the Gulf of Mexico. It is worth noting that forecasts change often.

Watch her spin...

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Worth noting there is another area further west that may or may not develop. But, we are really only concerned for now on because I like the name..and seriously because it may become a force to reckon with in the Gulf of Mexico which is our own backyard.

Think of this as a Dress Rehearsal :) for our season which starts in a few days!

...Barbara nearing hurricane strength...
...Hurricane Warning issued for the coast of the Gulf of


summary of 500 am PDT...1200 UTC...information
location...15.2n 95.0w
about 70 mi...115 km S of Salina cruz Mexico
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...NE or 35 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches

For Hurricane People it doesn't get any better than this..  We often wait and wait on a something to track, study and chase and nada...nothing happens til late June or even late July. This may be an illusion but it's a fun one for now. will cause a lot of trouble in the land areas that it will traverse on it's way towards a watery grave in the Gulf of Mexico where it may or may not regenerate. Often we discuss these crossover systems, but this year it seems more possible.

Note there is also a lot of moisture in the Caribbean currently for it to tap into as well as around Florida which is swamped with humidity and daily moonsoons. Also, there are vibrant diving cold fronts still which have blown the lid off of the tornado chasing season the last few weeks that could pull a storm northward that is in the Gulf of Mexico.

This image which will change in real time shows THREE areas of strong convection. One is Barbara.. one is in the Caribbean and the other is near Florida.

From the Farmers' Almanac:

June 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry weather.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.
8th-11th. Mostly fair and dry.
12th-15th. Scattered thunderstorms, then fair.
16th-19th. Hot and steamy.
20th-23rd. Showery rains from Georgia through the Carolinas, followed by clearing. Squally along the Gulf Coast.
24th-27th. Scattered thunderstorms.
28th-30th. Fair, hot, and oppressively humid.

July 2013
1st-3rd. Oppressive heat and humidity.
4th-7th. Thunderstorms for Carolinas south to the Gulf Coast, then clearing.
8th-11th. Showery rain for Gulf Coast and much of Southeast, followed by clearing.
12th-15th. Hot and humid.
16th-19th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Hot for Mississippi Valley and points east; with more scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Some scattered thunderstorms, followed by clearing skies.

It shows a typically early Gulf storm...then nothing until later in the Season, which is typical though questionable. There is a "rule" that when you have an early June storm... the season sits like dead weight until later in the season when things pick up. In active seasons this rule does not apply. This is slated to be an active season, but then again a lot of movies are slated to be the "blockbuster" of the summer and sink like a rotten tomato and hope to make their money back as people order them to watch at home half-dressed, tired and barely paying attention on the worn out sofa in the den.

By the way... I have a long list of movies I have been meaning to watch and yet haven't. At the moment I have a few in the theatre that I want to see..

Back to the tropics...

How does the Farmers' Almanac get it right so often? You don't want to know, because a lot of it involves astrology, astronomy, patterns and a messy mix of atmospheric science combined with astronomical data and a lot of hocus pocus that most scientific types write off as "nonsense" and yet... it predicted Hurricane Andrew almost to the day so a lot of Floridians or relatives of Floridians pay close attention still. It also I believe showed multiple hits back in one of the Frances/Jeanne years for Florida or Wilma/Katrina years. Yes... KATRINA HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. I know, you  missed that one as you think it just hit Nola ...but it trashed South Florida big time. Trash as in rotten trees, downed power lines and no power for a week or so for many people. Not storm surge, not high wind damage but a lot of damage never the less. New Orleans was not destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.. but by a levee failure that had been predicted and forewarned and yet... the levees weren't up to snuff to handle a hurricane that made landfall in Mississippi. Think on it. One of the WORST "weather" disasters of our time related to a hurricane, but more a failure of government to financially keep up with the needs of a city whose safety relies on a good, safe, strong levee system.

I go to classes sometimes at Dancing Moon Book Store. Yeah, anything that says "dancing" catches my eye. A lot of people who do astrology were waxing poetic on this year being a big year for storms on the plains and in the tropics and they never picked up a copy of the NOAA report or William Gray's report. Based on all the planets currently in Gemini which is ruled by Jupiter ... that lends itself to a lot of wind. The Gemini is squared by Neptune in Pisces ...Neptune rules the seas as any science fiction nut knows. Anytime the moon goes into Cancer we have a water trine which usually connects to very watery tropical storms and hurricanes and in late June and early July you will enter into Harmonic Water Trine land with the potential... according to those who watch the stars not the sats of mucho water trouble.. be in flooding, watery storms with big storm surge or a lot of rain...  only time will tell on that watching models I like to see what I get vs what could happen on any given day but as someone scientifically minded I will watch any data from Farmers' Almanac or daily reports from the Canadian Model ;)

Current Planets29-May-2013, 14:07 UT/GMT
Saturn62' 2"r
Back to 2013........and meteorology which... comes from the word meteor.. but we can discuss that later another day.

Will Barbara or another area of moist, tropical weather already down in the tropics that links up with the remnants of Barbara be that Gulf storm or hurricane? Keep watching...

I'll be back as more data comes out and I wake up and recover from this mornings back to back ballet sessions at the gym. I'd say how does ballet connect to hurricanes? Oh, seriously? It's all about choreography don't you know? If you don't get the "core" right in ballet you look like an ugly duckling trying to learn to walk ... let alone dance. If a tropical wave or tropical storm does not get it's core set up... it never becomes what it could be and often becomes "unstacked" and collapses in a mess of strong, severe weather despite all the hoopla over it based on models of what it could do..but didn't do because it didn't get it's core right from day one.

Something to think on...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... anyone notice weather is THE rage right now? I came home earlier, turned on the TV... watched a whole segment about an amateur storm chaser getting an awesome picture of a wedge tornado dancing and spinning safely in an empty field yesterday... and then I thought I'd put on CNN or FOX and realized it WAS CNN..... not TWC.   Shame there isn't a really good hurricane chasing film the way Twister did it for tornadoes. Just saying...  and if you make one, I'm the cute girl in the inappropriate heels with platforms standing on the rocks near the water with messy hair and getting great pictures and feeling the wind............

And, thanks for posting comments and discussion... I posted the Farmers' Almanac for everyone to see what they are talking about and so that we can go back and compare and see how close they were in their forecast.


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