Tropical Storm Barbara Forms in the EPAC... Could Cross Over INTO the GOM..

I'm back from my long Memorial Weekend Trip and watching the tropics. And, what a time to come back.

So, the EPAC (which basically means Eastern Pacific) has a depression that formed that according to the NAVY site has become Tropical Storm Barbara and Barbara could move north towards land and cross over into the Gulf of Mexico.  Moving North is something early storms in the EPAC sometimes do, but rarely do they do it.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The GFDL Model has a storm in the Gulf of Mexico moving North..

If that happens and Tropical Storm Barbara does cross over into the Gulf ...oh what a start it would be for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.. a season predicted to be a very busy one.

In 1949 this happened and some authorities have said this year bears a resemblance to the 1949 Atlantic Hurricane Season.



That is .... a harder track than "Barbara" would have, but worth noting.

From Wikipedia" On September 27, a tropical storm formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean just off the coast of Guatemala. It drifted northwestward, and made landfall on Guatemala on September 28. It moved northward along the western border of Guatemala, and after crossing southeastern Mexico the storm entered the Gulf of Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen on October 1. As it traversed northwestward it strengthened, and became a hurricane on October 2. It turned more to the north and intensified to a major hurricane on October 3 as it neared the Texas coastline. It rapidly attained peak winds of 135 mph (205 km/h).^[5] Subsequently, the made landfall near Freeport, Texas on October 4 as a Category 4 hurricane. The lowest recorded pressure was 978 mbar,^[6] and estimates place the minimum central pressure near 972 mbar.^[7] The hurricane rapidly weakened to a tropical storm as it turned northeastward over land, though it maintained tropical storm status until October 6 while over Missouri. As a tropical depression it accelerated northeastward, and later that day it dissipated near Chicago, Illinois.

The hurricane produced high tides along the Texas coast, peaking at 11 feet (3.4 m) in Velasco.^[2] Moderate beach erosion from the storm damaged streets in Galveston and destroyed a wooden fishing pier.^[6] The hurricane dropped heavy rainfall in Texas, including a maximum amount of 14.5 inches in Goodrich. Damage from the storm totaled to $6.7 million (1949 USD), primarily to crop damage. The hurricane also caused two deaths.^[2]

It is worth noting so you see it can and does happen... if rarely.

More recently in 2010 the EPAC storm Agatha moved inland over Central America and it's remnants emerged into the Caribbean where it continued to wreak havoc across the area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Agatha_(2010)

June 1st, 2010... in the Caribbean....



"After landfall, Agatha continued to cause floods and landslides, however it did not bring a lot of tropical storm force winds on shore.^[15] The system weakened quickly after coming on shore, dropping its winds to 25 mph (20 knots, 40 km/h) and its pressure to 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg) before dissipating.^[16] A burst of convection re-emerged east of Belize, in the Atlantic basin, on May 31. On June 1, the National Hurricane Center stated that the remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha had only a low chance of regeneration in the western Caribbean Sea.^[17] By the next day, the thunderstorm activity associated with Agatha in the western Caribbean had dissipated. However, the remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha persisted until June 6, causing death and destruction over Central America. On June 6, the remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha dissipated completely, after ravaging the Honduras and El Salvador."


Another storm Hermine formed from a disturbance in the Pacific as well..

 


"Hermine formed out of the remnants of the 2010 Pacific hurricane season's Tropical Depression Eleven-E in the Bay of Campeche. Organization continued and by the very early morning hours on September 6, a tropical depression formed. Later, during the morning hours, the system achieved enough organization to be classified as the eighth tropical storm of the season, and was named Hermine. Significant strengthening took place later that morning, then slow strengthening continued in the afternoon and evening. Before landfall, Hermine had an eye-like feature. Hermine made landfall that evening in northeastern Mexico, south of Matamoros, Tamaulipas, as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph (110 km/h) winds. After landfall, Hermine maintained an eye-like feature until shortly after weakening into a depression.

Damage was reported in the Rio Grande Valley region, primarily due to downed trees and power lines and scattered to widespread power outages.^[74] A woman drowned in a rip current related to Hermine in Jamaica Beach, Texas.^[75] On the evening of September 7, 2010, multiple Tornado Warnings were issued in Austin, Texas, with two confirmed touchdowns east of the city and one in the city. By 10:00 pm (CDT) the NHC issued its final advisory on Hermine as it weakened to a tropical depression.^[76] Hermine slowly weakened some more as it continued farther inland, and then it became extratropical over Oklahoma early on September 9. Hermine's remnants continued to produce heavy rain and tornadoes as it continued inland, with the circulation dissipating on September 10 over Kansas."

So...is it possible? Of course it's possible. Will it happen? Don't know... Keep watching, only time will tell!

There's an example for everything and we are often learning in real time.

A paper was released recently that shows us a May Hurricane named Amanda that was not previously recorded and helped alter battles in the Civil War in May of 1863.

An amazing piece of historical meteorological research, piece together a mystery.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1

(really worth clicking on that above link and reading it.....)

Watched tornadoes skip across Kansas today on TWC and heard that Vermont had 3 feet of snow over the weekend. As for me.. it was cold, very cold and I was wearing long sleeves and a thin poncho as I walked around the harbor watching low lying storm clouds.



Rained very heavy ...but was "stuck" in the Galleria so it really wasn't that much of a problem. Any place that has a Starbucks and a Victoria Secrets is a great place to get stuck inside when it pours.. nice breezy day.  Crazy storms later that day, almost like a hurricane.

So, get ready for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season ...because it's definitely ready for you!

Besos Bobbi

Ps...incredible, "insane" and aweseome video from inside a tornado that is making the rounds..

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/insane-video-from-inside-a-tornado/276299/