Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, November 16, 2012

Weekend Weather and a Look Towards Winter.. watching SW Carib...

This is where we often watch to see what might happen down the road...

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

The problem is we should be watching here:
Visible Water Vapor - GOES West 12 hr Loop

The systems that are digging in from Alaska...or digging up as the case may be as well as the pushing down and over towards South California are the clues as to what type of weather we will have on the East coast on Thanksgiving Day weekEND and the winter beyond.

The general flow is up over Hawaii and NE towards Alaska or the air bends the weather system down a big and then moves East...   If the air in the continental US is very snows. If it's not so cold...less snow, more rain. If a second "Southern Jet" of the Gulf stream sets up we get "Southern Storms" which can be anything from rain to snow to a possible Ice Event later this winter.

There is a blocking ridge to the north up in Canadian regions from Alaska to sometimes Greenland... all Cold Fronts will be East bound for the time being. At some point Arctic air will dig south and this will change.

How things change sets up whether we have Great Lakes Weather and Buffalo gets a weather advantage over warmer climate teams or not..  Nice to have the weather as an ally in winter... Will the Jet Stream set up and dip down through the Piedmont and how low down will cold hard core precipitation fall... vs drab, cold, grey rain..

So many questions to ask for later in the winter. I do believe we will have weather and a return for a while to weekly cold snowy systems in the East that should and could dip south of the Mason Dixie Line.

So...keep watching the Pacific.. to see what is coming our way...

Going back to the US...

A great link for 7 day weather forecasts graphically speaking is below.. it's up on Spaghetti Models.

Shows no really bad weather for the next several days, not nameable societal impacting weather :)

But as always weather will cause delays somewhere. I'll firm up where they may be in a day or two when we get a better sense of what "IS" vs what the various forecasts imply.

On a tropical note...

There is moisture down in the Caribbean. I can't see anything really forming, but it is possible. November storms form down there often and move ENE into the Atlantic. Even if nothing forms... that moisture can and will move up into the Atlantic and can link up down the road with a cold front moving west to east so for that reason alone it bears watching.

There is a slight twisting down in the region just north of let's say Panama...

There is this small purple dot down there that does align with the weather that is down there...
so.. bears watching

Enjoy the relatively nice weather to enjoy autumn weather or any mild weather you have...

My heart and prayers go out to the people cleaning up from Sandy. I went to a Zumba dance class this week, a large class and this week's money went to a family that lived on Long Island that lost everything.. from the women buying raffles to the DJ and the dance instructor... all money was used for charity. More on that another day ... but it was very, very rewarding to see so many people far away helping a young, windowed mother of a young 9 year old boy try to put her life together on the other side of the country. People everywhere in churches and temples across America are doing the same for strangers or a friend of someone they know who needs. Acts of charity like that are the glue that keeps the world going round.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Prayers for my friends in Israel who are going through their own daily dangers as missiles fall constantly down on them. My kids are all here this year, but they have lived there and many of their friends and kids who grew up in my house are there taking cover in less time than our sirens give people on the Plains time to get to a storm shelter if a tornado is sighted on the ground and headed their way. Less time than Dorothy or in Twister to get to a storm shelter... but it's a bomb shelter and often not more than ten or fifteen seconds depending on where they live. Count to ten slowly and picture yourself running for shelter with a sick elderly parent or a teenager who doesn't want to go or two babies under the age of 3 and you can imagine how much they need our prayers. Thank you..


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