20% Yellow Circle in Atlantic...

"CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES

WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE

AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL."



There is still no Invest up for this system which is having problems pulling it together from shear in the area. As it moves west, it may find a spot where the shear is lessened and there is a small 20% chance that it could develop further.

If you click on this loop you will see that the GFS shows a slow, stubborn tendency to try to close off a low and when it gets further west it develops into a viable cyclone.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012110912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

As for "Brutus" TWC's newly named "Winter Storm" it will create a snowy mess in places used to snow...though usually later in the year. I think they will be okay... nice to know TWC is on it :)

On a personal level I've been distracted from the tropics as my sister-in-law had surgery today for her pneumonia and I'm obviously a bit worried ... hopefully that will help and she will be better soon. I hope. And, I pray.

Take care, enjoy the beautiful weather (if you are not suffering from Brutus) and whatever Fall Color you still have.. enjoy every moment of it because soon we will be dealing with a Snowy Winter across most of the US. Lastly... there is the high potential for Severe Weather across the Mid Section of the country so keep a weather radio on at night with an alarm just in case.  Twisters forming in the middle of the night are a worst case scenario as they are cloaked in darkness.. as a "Spring like" set up feeds warm tropical moisture from the Gulf up towards an advancing frigid cold front.

If you live in this region in the country... you could see a spin up of bad weather late tonight... be careful!

Check this link and put in your zip code and read your particular weather forecast and pay close attention for any possible severe weather. And, remember http://www.weather.gov/ is the REAL source for weather, the bottom line... TWC is weather + entertainment.

Besos Bobbi