Nothing Going On in the Tropics

Oddly waves keep coming off of Africa, way too late in the season but they are there and they look viable ...until they hit the wall of shear from frontal boundaries that are draped down into the deep Tropical Atlantic.



Those blotchy sort of clouds behind the front are: COLD AIR..

The area that was a 20% circle has currently zero percent chances to organize, but they are still watching it to be careful. That is the job of the NHC...they watch whatever is out there for signs of life.

Sort of like atmospheric-oceanographic ET observers :)

The storm known as "Brutus" to TWC watchers is making it's way across the country and there is a possibility of a dusting of snow on areas that did not have snow in the forecast earlier in the week. Though "Brutus" has not produced the severe weather that many storm chasers had feared... it does seem to be colder than previously thought and possibly moving a drop slower.

Accuweather does not show the possibility of snow in parts of Iowa, the NWS and other weather services do and those forecasts will be updated in real time with this storm. It is marching  East and though the Carolina region is basking in golden fall splendor with sunny skies this morning, tomorrow it may be a different story as the cold air comes back into the area.

And, it is stunningly beautiful here this morning.

In NY and NJ the clean up goes on.

This really is a long term problem and though I do not know why the National Guard was not activated early on... even so when homes are destroyed, houses have to be evaluated by insurance companies and the electrical grid we all rely on needs to be put back together... it's a long, long process.

Somehow people think it gets fixed in a week. It doesn't. You cannot put Jack and Jill back together again that soon. That is the sad truth. That is why this is such a tragic disaster.

I want to thank the people who have written from the NJ area concerning the destruction there and I would like to add.. I don't know that area well personally although I have a son who works around Edison NJ in an industrial complex that I was worried would be under water from Sandy. The facility where he works is several feet above ground and the water came within a foot or less than a foot of the loading dock. Power was out, but it was restored ... It's not easy for people who work there to get back and forth from Brooklyn where most of them live....they carpool. The company just moved there and my son will be moving soon, however the apartments that he and his friends were looking at need some renovation.

The aftermath from Sandy is a multi-layered problem much like the skins of an onion. You resolve one problem and then there is another underlying problem, or like trying to diagnosis a patient with multiple problems. It's not that easy. It's not Hollywood and hospitals don't all have "House" doctors on their staff... that is Hollywood...this is the real world.

And, with regard to Atlantic Heights...thank you so much for emailing me as I have wondered on that often and wondering also the last time they suffered a storm like this in history.

Let me say on Miami Beach ....which is as low lying as it gets... Alton Road which is a block from Biscayne Bay on the West side (inland) suffers massive flooding when there are storms that hit during high tides related to the moon. And, when I say "storms" I mean any big rain storm. It is normal. It's a pain and I have written about it.

There are pictures in the articles I am linking to... a few of many stories but the first I could find.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/09/freaky-flooding-friday-on-miami-beach.html


At the height of the flooding the bus rolls down the middle of the street and creates waves that wash their way into small storms as well as Whole Foods and it happens all the time. I worked a block from Collins Avenue that runs along the East side of Miami Beach.. a block from the ocean and we had one freak rainstorm and we had several inches of flooding inside our big building. Carpets needed to be replaced, torn up... it was a mess and it happens. Not from tidal flooding as much as we are so low to the water level there is no where for the water to go... until it runs off.

During a hurricane especially we know that Miami Beach can and has been under water from a storm surge. But, the damage from regular storm flooding is not the same as from a massive tidal surge that has traveled the length of the ocean and has waves whipped up on top of the mound of water by strong winds.  

Prior to Hurricane Katrina there was a belief that if you were north of a certain spot in Gulfport and Biloxi  you would be safe... The flooding water reached inland as far as I-10 and beyond.

http://www.magnolia-ba.biz/katrina-flood-markers-to-come-down-in-hancock-county/

Katrina set a new bar for inland flooding.

This is taken from the link below it.... says a lot.

"First Baptist Church of Gulfport, Downtown Gulfport.  Photograph taken from near Marine Life located near the Gulfport Small Craft Harbor.  Federal Courthouse in right background.  Foreground is the remains of Jones Park.  The First Baptist Church of Gulfport was used as the background for many broadcasts by Elizabeth Vargas of ABC Nightly News immediately following Hurricane Katrina.

    Update January 2007: First Baptist Church of Gulfport relocated to Hwy 605 about 1 mile north of I-10. Hwy 605 is the new name for Cowen-Lorraine extension that runs from I-10 Northward to Hwy 67.  The First Presbyterian Church of Gulfport also relocated to Hwy 605, about 1/2 mile North of the location of the First Baptist Church of Gulfport."

http://www.dogwoodceramics.com/katrina/hurricane-katrina-photographs-gulfport.htmhttp://www.dogwoodceramics.com/katrina/hurricane-katrina-photographs-gulfport.htm

Prior to Hurricane Sandy I am sure Atlantic Highlands felt much safer than lower areas that were prone to flooding. It's why I said a few days ago there is often an illusion of safety in Miami where people feel unsafe on Miami Beach but safe in Miami Shores not realizing what would happen if a storm came in such a way as to bring the storm surge up Biscayne Bay to areas on the mainland vs "the beach."

http://bigeyeinthesky.com/Default.asp?CID=Katrina ? <--- 360="360" a="a" another="another" degree="degree" for="for" katrina="katrina" of="of" p="p" site="site" view="view">

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/10/cold-front-moving-through-tropical.html

Another old link ...understand the problem in Miami Beach is NOT the same as being on the coast of New Jersey. In Florida they often release water from the "Lake" which works it's way down to Miami Beach via Biscayne Bay and there has been tremendous population growth and density in the last five to ten years that creates additional problems. The system just can't hold the water ... it floods, mildly, locally and then the water runs off.  

On the other hand... in a strong storm... such as the 1926 Hurricane which was way wetter than Andrew and hit downtown Miami there was tremendous street flooding inland... the storm surge went up the river ... 

It's a complex problem and for some reason we always seem to wait until each hurricane unfolds before dealing with it.

Again.. 7 years from Andrew to Katrina... 7 years from Katrina to Sandy.. all different storms, but they present similar problems... especially the part about gas, restoring the power grid, etc, etc... insurance regulators who move too slow and can't get into the area fast enough, etc... 

We need to get better at this, but we also need to understand that a hurricane takes you out of play for a long time.. not a week or two... and in five years you look back and cannot believe how much growth there has been and the hurricane becomes a memory you talk about for generations to come. 

It's not easy. That's why it is called a tragedy. In today's world where we get everything instantly on Google it's hard to understand we can lose power for ten days from a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Been there...seen it first hand and it's frustrating but again that is the problem with a tragedy, especially one played out across such a large geographic scale as Katrina or Sandy.

And, those places north of I-10 that felt "safe" will remember they weren't as safe as they thought. 

Be happy.. no tropical storms on the horizon today... and Veterans Day is going to be in some places one last chance to get out and enjoy Fall and in other areas.. it's going to be a place to clean up and try and get back to normal from the Hurricane Sandy. 

It will take a long, long time for areas in Staten Island to get back to "normal" as "normal" will have to be rebuilt and redesigned!

Besos Bobbi

Ps Thanks for reading.. and for your feedback.