Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Tuesday & A Wet, Messy I-95 & Petraeus Scandal

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

So, I decided to take a quick look at the tropics and I felt it was newsworthy to show graphically that there really is nothing going on in the tropics. You see, usually when there is nothing happening there is something that could happen somewhere. It's sort of like a spy novel... something is out there hidden away and it's cover has not been blown by weather people as they cover other issues such as freezing rain and a snow falling over Syracuse. You wonder how this whole Petraeus drama could happen? How many times did some tropical system show up out of nowhere with a name and an advisory in less than a few hours?

Let me take you back to 1997, a weak but memorable hurricane season when El Nino got more press than any tropical development in the Atlantic.

Over on www.flhurricane.com everyone was close to desperate that the "mother of all El Ninos" had shut down the Hurricane Season after the final departure of Danny who traipsed his way across the SE after landfall in Mobile Bay to reform in the Atlantic. Mind you Danny formed as a wayward front dipped down into the Gulf and then boomeranged back into Alabama and Florida.

Note the lack of Cape Verde development or coastal cruisers up the East Coast as El Nino reigned. What did form moved quickly from east to west and stayed out at sea..

It was a weak year, we were happy to have anything to track...even a strange storm that got stranger.

Note discussion from the archives on the barren month of August in 1997.

No Storms in August 1 September 1997 @ 4:00PM EDT

For the first time in 36 years nothing tropical has developed in August. This is in stark contrast to the last two years, which have had 7 in 1995 and 4 in 1996.
This is good news for everyone, but it sure makes the hobby of tracking Atlantic storms a little dull.
It is important to note, though, that in September in the years with no August storms it was plentiful, with several landfalling storms. Will this be the case in 1997? That remains to be seen.

BUT! Since the storm in the western carribbean seems to have difficulty doing anything we must look to the east... Near the cape Verde islands is a storm that is on the verge of becoming a depression.

Because of the attitude of this year what I just stated may well turn out to be not true. (like the last few near-TD waves)
So Stay Tuned!

http://flhurricane.com/1997archives.htm

Note there was discussion about the wave that might have become Erika online in early AOL Message boards and websites like flhurricane.com but they were so low below the radar that short of a mention at a divorce hearing of meteorological spies... nothing was on the radar when Erika formed.

There was an active volcano in the Caribbean which was seen as the final fork stuck into the 97 Hurricane Season.. Montserrat was the only island spoken of online and the old Geology Room on AOL was busier than the Hurricane History Room.

And, then........................suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere the NHC sites a report by a ship and upgrades a weak, wandering, westbound wave to named storm status.

Back in those days... we had very few tools online to observe tropical development. Satellite images were few and hard to come by and most people's computers could barely download them. No Apps. No good cell phones. Some graphics and maps and that's about it. A ship report.

There was discussion online and we were thrilled for it.

Note "Ship Reports" remain an important source of information while forecasting hurricanes, however back in 1997 they played an even bigger part.

Note the reports on Erika in 1997 from the NHC.

Table 2. Ship reports of 34 knots or higher sustained winds.
Id.	Name	Date/time (UTC)	Lat. (°N)	Lon. (°W)	Wind dir./spd.	Pressure (mb)
KRPP	Nobel Star	04/0900	15.9	50.8	090/49	1009.5
KMJL	Itb Groton	07/1500	21.8	60.3	130/35	1008.8
KMJL	Itb Groton	08/0000	20.6	59.7	020/86?	1009.2
LADR4	Star Gran	08/0000	23.8	65.0	050/39	1006.5
WCHF	Sealand Consumer	08/0300	19.0	68.0	350/71?	1011.7
C6QK	Barrington Island	10/0900	33.6	59.9	080/38	1001.0
C6QK	Barrington Island	10/1200	33.5	61.2	080/38	1000.5
C6QK	Barrington Island	10/1500	33.2	62.5	040/38	1004.0
9HOP3	Sarajevo Express	11/0900	37.1	58.8	020/45	1009.0
9HOP3	Sarajevo Express	11/1500	36.4	58.8	020/45	1010.0
9HOP3	Sarajevo Express	11/1800	35.7	58.0	320/35	1012.0
V7AZ5	?	11/1800	35.8	48.1	160/42	1006.1
9HOP3	Sarajevo Express	11/2100	35.7	57.5	360/40	1011.3
C6JY9	Eastern Bridge	14/0000	32.3	38.9	240/37	1007.3
ship	-----	14/1200	33.0	37.3	260/60	1000.6
PGBO	Music	14/1800	41.8	45.8	360/36	1012.3
ship	-----	15/0000	33.4	40.0	280/60	1011.1
DDSK	Sea Progress	15/0000	37.4	28.6	140/37	1011.2
DDSK	Sea Progress	15/0600	36.5	30.4	210/41	1005.0
DDSK	Sea Progress	15/1200	35.9	31.4	240/44	1007.3
DDSK	Sea Progress	15/1500	36.0	32.1	250/37	1007.5
C6LU4	Hood Island	15/1800	34.5	27.8	200/40	1013.0
4XGT	Zim Italia	15/1800	37.0	28.6	240/45	1007.5
DDSK	Sea Progress	16/0000	36.2	35.3	260/35	1012.0
FNRS	Douce France	16/0600	39.6	20.7	160/38	1009.7
ship	-----	16/0600	41.6	22.1	170/51	1002.0
9VPP	Frankfurt Express	16/1200	45.0	26.5	010/45	-----
PCDE	Admiralengracht	17/0000	47.6	22.9	010/58	1000.4
LAHE2	Star Evvivia	17/1200	46.3	26.8	030/40	1013.0
PFEI	Jo Selje	18/0000	48.7	20.7	010/52	1004.0
PFEI	Jo Selje	18/0300	48.4	19.8	360/49	1000.9

Fast forward to 2012 when there is more to discuss than the many uses of duct tape and how to drink your tropical sorrows away while your wife redecorates your house with the storm chasing money.... Hey I have a new husband, my ex-husband now sends me weather images... I'm still talking to crazy weather friends and sitting in business meetings staring down at loops on my cellphone hidden under the table. The more things change, the more they stay the same... and as Reed says "never stop chasing" and I so agree..

Yeah, today we can bring up a multitude of images on our various cellphones, iPads or even old fashioned computers.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Now days you can go to the bottom grey "current prob" image and it has several areas highlighted in blues and purples worthy of an image posting on Pinterest.

Today that images shows nothing... nada... nothing.

One Shade of Grey. Nothing. Nada.

And, that IS the story today.

I'm not saying that we won't somehow have some system somewhere develop...as odd things happen when dealing with Tropical Weather, but as friends online say you can really put a fork in it and pull the plug on this current hurricane season.

There are satellite loops to loop. This one for instance shows the "tropical warm energy" that is going to do a tango with the next front to move from West to East across the country to make a Thanksgiving appetizer for those of you who decide to travel early. It becomes a "coastal low" and it will work it's way up the coast in the same way Sandy and "Athena" ate away at the beaches of the Mid-Atlantic. Again, some models have it closer to OBX and others keep it further offshore.

I'm thinking the GFS should be renamed "offshore" and the Euro should be renamed "onshore"...

As the models the other day predicted when there was a 20% yellow circle... what is left of the last wave will whoosh it's way up the Atlantic like a stealth tropical storm on a spy mission pretending to be a Nor'easter and either way the damage will be the same. More beach erosion and more nasty weather for people trying to clean up from Sandy.

The timing still seems a bit off on the next storm. Originally it was Tuesday through Thursday, then it became M through W and now we are talking Sunday through Tuesday. When I am sure of the timing.. I'll post more. Timing is everything in forecasting if the timing is off the intensity can be off as well as the various types of precipitation as well as the duration.

Models for the Thanksgiving Teaser that may become Caesar ..unless the TWC has backed off a bit on rushing to name storms.

If you loop any of the models out there right now you will see the same thing with some differences... no deep Arctic air intrusion. A little of a sliding down and feeding into the storm system moving West to East across the US. Somewhere online there is always a weatherman trying to show the possibility of a storm system being stronger than the NWS is currently showing on their 7 day forecast.

http://wxbrad.com/arctic-air-intrusion-for-turkey-day/ <--- check="check" it="it" out="out" p="p">

Weatherman Brad out of Charlotte which has gone from Ground Zero for being the DNC convention has now become Ground Zero for the Petraeus scandal as the FBI investigates the CIA and goes through Broadwell's home. And, trust me when they do one of their "raids" it's impressive. A funny note to their "raid" is that someone sent the Pizza Man there with a bunch of pizzas... not sure if it was a neighborhood kid prank or a CIA prank... but it got a good laugh from the media.

Note Bastardi had considered this a stronger system, he seems to be backing off...which is rare for Bastardi

‏@BigJoeBastardi

ECMWF takes deepening low up 70 west.. further east but stronger with thanskgiving week threat pic.twitter.com/Ncg93Giv

For anyone traveling along the I-95 corridor today... north or south .. from South Carolina to Maine it's going to be a long, slow, tedious drive. Stop and get some Starbucks..it's a cold, grey day along that region.

I woke up to very strong winds in the Raleigh area, strong enough to make a few oaks sway like palm trees and the Pines are dancing...plainly visible through the trees that have lost a lot of leaves. I kind of like it that way, I can see more sky... Cold, gray and going down to freezing by this evening. Buckle up and stay warm if you live anywhere from Raleigh to NYC.. and then the front will move out a bit faster than forecast and we will check the models on the next frontal system forecast to move through... a steady train of cold fronts one after another as the tropics are quiet and the spy scandal unfolds.

Note...even though there are no tropical systems, tropical energy continues to ooze WNW far enough to meet up with constant fronts providing them with lots of moisture... and enhancing their energy.

This atmospheric patten has a lot of drama potential later in the season IF this trend continues and depending on where the Subtropical Jet sets up.

Stay tuned and ... be careful with your email trails... you never know when they can turn up.. or old archives online :)

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... got to say with all the games going on with the FBI and the CIA perhaps they should start sending the NHC and NOAA more money. I mean really what could go on there? I think as everyone worries on weather modification and global warming...they should revamp the CIA and the FBI and send the money where it matters... to NOAA!

Makes fun reading on Twitter though while waiting for December to kick in and become a December to Remember weatherwise...

Maybe what she was doing under the table that LOOKED INAPPROPRIATE was just her sneaking a peek at a weather loop? Nah.. probably not lol but can you say for sure? Either way, glad the FBI is investigating the CIA for a change.........

Hurricane Harbor

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Tropical Tuesday & A Wet, Messy I-95 & Petraeus Scandal

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