Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 28, 2012

NOTE on the MODELS.. Its the Models that are Scaring the Forecasters

It's a tricky situation. It's easy to say this is all hype for ratings by the TWC, but that's not the case.

Oh if it were the case...

I'm in Raleigh, I can feel the power of this storm and I am FAR from the storm...

It has been blowing since last night, nonstop... sometimes steady, sometimes it gets quiet and then gusty. Wind.. non stop. Not sure how there are leaves left on the trees. Boy, Oak Trees are stronger than I thought they were...  The yard is covered with new leaves that just feel in the last 12 hours as the neighbor blew them all away.

This is far from the center of Sandy, and we are not under any warnings.

Even IF somehow Sandy goes a bit to the south and hooks in faster and harder which is possible and hits the Del Marva rather than Long Island.. the water pushed up from the Caribbean the length of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream will still keep surging north... some taken WNW with the storm and some not..

It's an usual storm and hard to forecast. That's just the truth. And, the NHC updates their track map every 6 hours with a long discussion and every 3 hours with position and intensity updates.

The Canadian Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm... this is not about ratings for TWC or CNN...

What you need to understand is this:

A parasite works by feeding off of a host body.

Think of "Sandy" like this...

Sandy is a tropical entity... a Hurricane ... and she is moving NE at 10 MPH packing 75 mph winds.

8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Then she is forecast to turn back towards the coast either gracefully....or make a hard left and go west fast.


Because the parasite is the trough that is picking her up with the help of a blocking ridge to the North not allowing her to go up to Newfoundland like Leslie did.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

We would like to believe she will go out to sea. Yes, most go out to sea..not all do.

The Models:

Note some of the  models are aiming lower...

More models:

So, the cold, big, winter storm lives and feeds off of Hurricane Sandy ...

After Sandy passes where ever she passes... it will become cold.

Because part 1 is tropical...and part 2 is a Cold Winter Storm.

LOOK AT THE CANADIAN TRACK MAP...they are not hyping the storm for ratings.

Hurricane Track Information

They are not hyping the storm.

The  models are driving the hype.

Lastly... a great meteorologist taught me... the problem is that people ALWAYS expect the last storm they got. So, had Irene lived up to it's promos... everyone would be freaking out. Because Irene did not live up to it in NYC (though they forget it killed a lot of people up in the country) they expect Sandy to be Irene again.

It's how our mind works.

Throw that logic out.

Maybe Sandy will just be 3 days of blustery winds with astronomically high tides at the full moon and some rain.. either way this is how that works.

You get a strong squall. It weakens a big tree. The tree holds. Another squall hits a few hours later and it holds..  wind shifts and a strong squall comes through six hours later or 9 hours later from the opposite direction and the tree gives up the ghost and takes your electricity with it... WHOOSH.

And, that is how this storm works.

I cannot say what the wind will be like in NYC on Tuesday at 8AM.. but the NWS will try and keep up with the storm and the NHC and the Canadian Hurricane Center will be issuing warnings and the TWC is actually doing a pretty good job.

Stop listening to the hype talk and look at the power of the storm in the waves on the Outer Banks far to the North of Sandy.

Are you ready to POSSIBLY have a storm system sitting over you for say 24 to 48 hours of Tropical Storm force winds... power outages and then............the wind shifts and you get strong COLD winds for another 24 to 48 hours.  Are you ready for that?

Pray like crazy it falls apart... pray like crazy the models are wrong and Sandy is like Irene a washout.

But, remember ... Irene washed away bungalows in inland floods with a grandmother in her 80s while her husband watched helplessly unable to save her life after she survived Hitler and the Holocaust.

Don't be such an ethnocentric person who thinks it was "nothing" because the subways were fine and the Battery survived ....when people in NJ had massive flooding and upstate NY and Vermont suffered severe damage. is:

1. A hurricane
2. Then a Winter Storm
3. A lot of MISERY if you are in her path.
4. Her past was hell especially in Cuba:

Let's hope that Sandy changes her mind, but let's prepare as if she won't and the models are right.

I know someone who has 3 children in NY, 2 and a half "children in laws" and 3 grandchildren in Brooklyn and tons of friends who is hoping and praying that Sandy changes her mind..

Sorry, I'm taking it a little bit serious.. and hoping others will.

Besos Bobbi


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