Hurricane Sandy Update at Noon Friday

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A strange looking Hurricane and that is because she is transforming...going wide.

11 AM advisory:

LOCATION...26.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

Hurricane Sandy is dealing with strong south-southwesterly shear and this pocket of dry air continues to affect the Hurricane and her presentation on the satellite imagery.

Notice where she's missing weather?




Look at how dry air is punching into her from the SW:

This can be seen here on what I call the "Juice Loop" showing hot energy and dry cold pockets in blue.

Well it's a lighter color nwo but you can see the shape of Sandy changing...

As for the long term forecast:

Rain and possibly snow will occur over a large area. If you live in the danger zone, check this map to see what you may receive.

Sandy is exposed and she has a lopsided shape as her cloud cover and it's associated moisture is spreading out to the East covering a good part of the Western Atlantic Ocean.



From that loop above I am worried the timing of this scenario may be off and that this may happen sooner rather than later. I hope I am wrong, as that would affect a lot of people who either didn't prepare or thought it wouldn't be that bad. Just a concern as there is a double hook going down on that link grabbing Sandy...

One should not obsess about the  wind speed of this system as it may go down and then strengthen again. The size and scope of the system is the problem and areas 300 to 400 miles wide may feel tropical storm force winds as gusts or sustained winds and that estimate is conservative on my part.

There is a slow, steady transformation going on within Sandy to a quasi sort of hybrid storm. I've heard it said several times it is as if there is a tropical storm inside a winter storm and that is pretty true but misleading.

No matter where the center of the storm that is plotted by coordinates crosses land, people hundreds of miles away will still be dealing with sustained winds in the 50 mph plus range over a long period of time.

She is currently moving North and expected to bend to the NNE or NE and then curve back as the next system that will steer her digs down to grab her. Do not think she is going out to sea when she begins moving NE it is a temporary movement.

The 11 AM 5 Day cone is basically the same as the last with only a few minor adjustments.

The current time frame is:

Del Marva Monday EURO
or
NYC to NE Monday Night/ Tuesday GFS

Of course, as this is a fluid situation it could change and if so the NHC will adjust their cone as will the Networks adjust their target and hype.

TRIVIA NOTE: All of Pennsylvania is within the 5 day cone.

This is an INLAND event, NOT just a beach landfall.. plan accordingly.

TENS OF MILLIONS may lose power.
Transportation as in connecting flights... are going to be messed up.
Amtrak will be affected.
Prepare accordingly... food supplies, medical supplies, back up fully charged cell phones..towers may not work properly and if so your cell phones won't ... just a reminder how fragile our cyber world is..

All depending on how this plays out in real time.

Isn't weather amazing?? Always remember.. Lex Luthor ALWAYS wanted to control weather, because the government or person who can has control over the whole world. Thankfully, Superman was always there to ruin Lex Luthor's plans...

Great graphics online. A great loop from Twitter. Worth signing up for www.weatherbell.com if you haven't thought on doing so. You can pay per day, which is what I am going to do later today.

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs_pv325k_usa_globe_anim.gif

Great site: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=10891807&l=57a1bdb73b&id=88134562366

Join up and add in the discussion on Facebook!

It is possible that in some way this will have to be dealt with regarding the Elections as some areas may lose power for a week to ten days easy and that takes us into the Election Day...

Some good discussion:

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/how-hurricane-sandy-can-become-a-frankenstorm-15160

Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-on-collision-course-with-mid-atlantic-and-northeast/2012/10/26/1f82c84c-1f7d-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

Larry Cosgrove:
http://www.examiner.com/article/weekend-weather-forecast-for-houston-texas-and-vicinity-friday-10-26-2012

I'll be back later with more model info and some timing information and more thoughts...

A small question here would be what is the BAMD smoking? It replays Hurricane Hazel, moves in and loops back out and then goes out to sea.....  Go figure the one good model that goes out to sea hits North Carolina first.... 

Odd... it must be sensing something, I would guess it's sensing the timing issue I am worried on. 

I'm leaning towards the Del Marva solution though it could get pulled in and go north from there. Honestly, anything is possible. It's not about the exact track but where exactly the weather will go within a large, large, large storm!  

What ever it's smoking the GFS seems to just have had some... the new model shows some strange movement. A Tweet from Cantore himself explains it better than I could. That's NEW.. breaking new model. Hmnnnnn... gets messier vs clearer to see what is for sure going to happen.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore

NEW GFS model bring 948mb low into Rhode Island then drives it back to NYC then southwest through Philly then back up to NYC. Unbelievable!

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Besos Bobbi