Leslie Moves Towards Bermuda, Twister in Brooklyn

The most noticeable thing on the image above, other than Leslie, is the frontal boundary that is stretched from Florida through New England.  For a frontal boundary to make it down through Northern Florida this early is notable. What is less noticeable, but notable, is that the tropical energy from the Invest in the Gulf helped infuse the front with moist energy and upped the ante severe weather wise. Although, the Invest did not form the models showing it merging with the front did play out. There was severe weather in many places up and down the Eastern Seaboard from the two twisters in Brooklyn and Queens to severe weather and flooding in the Carolinas and further south.

America, or rather the Continental US, gets a lot of it's yearly moisture from such tropical systems. They don't all become hurricanes, but their moisture and energy do give life giving rain to crops all across the Eastern Half of America.

We drove across Delaware, Maryland and Virginia this month twice... I cannot tell you how much dried out, burnt up corn there is and that is where it rains more than in places in the Plains that got a lot less than we get on the Eastern Seaboard. Nothing gives life more than beneficial rain in the right season.

Also, further east is another system that is off the coast of Africa and has a 40% chance for development later in the week.

For now.. Leslie and her baby brother Michael are the big show tonight and tomorrow.

Quoting some good discussion below:

"ONE OF THE KEY WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL TELL THE TALE IS THE
BEHAVIOUR OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL "PICK UP" THE
HURRICANE AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD.  THERE COULD BE A FRONT MERGING
WITH THE STORM AND DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG IT.  HOWEVER, ALL
THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND POSITION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE."
Really excellent discussion. Falling in love with the way they discuss hurricanes and give a forecast.

Over at the NHC Blake gives a good discussion on Michael, that will be updated shortly.


MICHAEL CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR
EYE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LARGER THAN BEFORE...AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
OUTFLOW PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE
SAME SO THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 90 KT. MICHAEL WILL MOST
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROBABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. IN
ANY EVENT...THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY.



http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/leslie12/Leslie_08-09Sep12.gif

Good radar loop above to watch as Leslie moves in on Bermuda. So appreciative of the links passed around online, we have come such a long way from the old days...








A lot of discussion on if Leslie and Michael will merge or stay separate entities. According to this news link out of Halifax they don't expect them to merge vs interact with each other. Time will tell..

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/tropical-storm-leslie-and-hurricane-michael-not-expected-to-merge-in-n-l-1.947801

Note they start off with the Brooklyn Twister story..

Staying with the theme of local news sites ...here is a link out of Brooklyn that covered the twister. There are several good videos on this site...different from the one that TWC keeps showing.

http://www.crownheights.info/index.php?itemid=46835 <--- 4 good videos

The one problem with Leslie tonight is that the majority of her weather is on the Western side closest to Bermuda. Go figure, the other day her weather was on her eastern side... a better scenario in this case. It's a constantly changing situation, so she may get more weather than she might otherwise ...if this stays the way it is...  she is a storm in transition right now ... from tropical to whatever the NHC calls her later in the day tomorrow... keep watching... will see. Either way, very asymmetrical.

Keep watching...








Besos Bobbi
Ps New link on www.spaghettimodels.com of radar from Bermuda:

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp