Leslie Barely Moving, Michael a Cat 3 & Remnants of Isaac in the Gulf

The 11 AM Discussion for Leslie shows a NHC that is bound by the  models to stick with the forecasted intensification, however explaining why she does not look so hot currently. This is sort of like staying with the guy that you went to the Prom with...  Note my comments in pink, for entertainment and educational purposes only.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS BARELY A
HURRICANE she looks really crappy on the sats, a real mess
 WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. LESLIE HAS A VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION she is one monster mama out there wow
BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE. didn't say i would want her as a mama, she is one
big gal but has not a clue who she is..  MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST she just cannot wrap the weather that is to the N and E of her into her core
 OF THE CENTER DUE TO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR winds from the West are blowing 
her convection away. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN IN FORECASTING A RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...
Lord the models will just not give up on her turning into a strong hurricane, they 
just won't smell the coffee... maybe they see something we don't so let's stick 
with the models for now.......ALTHOUGH THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET. SERIOUSLY..... HOWEVER...GIVING CREDIT TO
THESE MODELS..No way are we going to say the models are smoking something, nope we just gonna go on hoping the models will get this right .AND THE FACT THAT THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS ALSO DECREASE THE SHEAR.really it's not JUST the GFS... other models see it too
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
We are going with the models, sticking with them... marrying them, raising a family and 
picking out pets and putting away a college fund in our spare time...
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT LESLIE WILL BE MOVING OUT
of home eventually as soon as she finds a job, really... oops sorry digressing a bit here
 OF THE COOLER WATERS WHICH RESULTED FROM THE UPWELLING.  we don't need
models to tell us that after too long over the same spot the water underneath her wings will
cool and she will lose energy... of course after she intensifies into a stronger storm like
the models predict she will 

(with apologies here to Avila here I'm just having some fun, honest so let's continue)

Now comes the fun part.........

LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS  so many song cues come 
to mind we would love to use but let's just say... she' snot going anywhere soon AND
CONSEQUENTLY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OR MEANDERING NORTHWARD
how many different ways can we say she is anchored in the Atlantic, not moving yet
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS..getting really sick of repeating ourselves here.....BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE don't ask us which ones don't  TO THE EAST OF LESLIE AND BRING A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DO NOT FALL ASLEEP ON US NOW THIS IS THE
 GOOD PART . THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD we can only hope
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD one day we will write forecasts on other storms... maybe even make it through the whole alphabet. ALTHOUGH
THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED...muy loco...
no no no pick this storm up and get it out of here already.... make her move... anywhereTHE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION. they always do that... she's bound to go N then recurve, just do it already!!!
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NEAR BERMUDA  
 IS ANYONE STIILL READING THIS?
BUT THE CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SHOW A
TRACK EAST OF BERMUDA. We are going to stick with the models, that is what we do and
they really do say she will stay east of Bermuda... we hope. Of course, we didn't say that we just
said the MODELS show a track East of Bermuda...

(I think all the forecasters need and deserve a vacation somewhere soon.... )

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE..moving on to something other than the fact that she is not moving
.COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...but we do need to remind everyone she is not moving
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA we hope this is all that hits Bermuda as we have indicated that the models indicate she will stay east of Bermuda, we hope 
 AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
STAY OUT OF THE WATER ON THE EAST COAST, YES WE KNOW YOU ARE GOING TO GO LOOK, 
YES REALLY... WE KNOW YOU ARE ALL GOING TO GO LOOK BUT STAY OUT OF THE WATER, 
SERIOUSLY WE MEAN THIS... LOCK UP YOUR KIDS AND BUY THEM A NEW CELL PHONE OR SOMETHING KEEP THEM OUT OF THE OCEAN THE WAVES ARE GOING TO BE KICK ASS FOR 
SURFERS BUT DANGEROUS SO FIND A WAY TO KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE OCEAN AND THAT
GOES FOR ALL YOUR OLDER PEOPLE WHO JUST CAN'T STAY AWAY FROM THE HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. YES WE KNOW IT'S HARD TO SURF ON THE FLORIDA COAST WITHOUT A STORM BUT KEEP THEM INSIDE AND IF YOU LIVE SOMEWHERE LIKE WILMINGTON.. OH FINE JUST DO WHATEVER YOU WILL DO BECAUSE WE KNOW ALL OF YOU SURFERS WILL BE OUT THERE BUT AT LEAST WE TRIED TO WARN YOU... 

IF YOU REALLY WANT TO CHECK OUT A GOOD SURFBOARD, TRY THIS SITE BUT REMEMBER, I WARNED YOU SHE IS GOING TO BE MOVING SLOWLY AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE WILD AT THE BEACH..OH SORRY, I DIDN'T SAY THAT ..

http://www.avilasurfboards.com/

(WITH TOTAL APOLOGIES TO AVILA... OWE YOU A MOJITO IF YOU EVER READ THIS... HONEST)

The point here is that Avila and ALL of the forecasters have spent days now having to write forecasts for Leslie despite the fact that nothing has changed. Every six hours they have been turning out advisory discussion that sounds the same... she is churning out waves and high surf and they know that the only reason a lot of surfers are even reading their discussion is to find out when to go surfing and yet they have to keep saying... she looks big in size, weak in intensity, but the models insist she will become a stronger hurricane and satellite imagery shows she might be developing an eye...or a dry slot, one or the other and they have to go with the models and trust the models know what is going on down the road ... 

Meanwhile... a "game changing" cold front is moving towards the coast through Virginia and  Carolina. Michael became a Major Hurricane and remnants of Isaac are possibly reforming in the Gulf of Mexico and another storm is forecast to form in the Atlantic but they still have to keep repeating the old forecast discussion over and over and try to make it new. They really deserve a break, a drink, a good Cuban cigar, a salad from Whole Foods or whatever their passion is besides weather because they will be writing forecast discussion for Leslie for some time and they must be bored to death with Hurricane Leslie.

And, the way things are they have to explain the models, show the models and justify their forecasts with the models. It's not an easy life and yet because of the precision of the models they have improved their forecasts tremendously over the way things were done without the new, improved models. Do you really want to go back to looking for rings around the moon at night or watching bird patterns in the Everglades?

Personally.... me... Bobbistorm... I think Leslie looks pretty good, though she probably looked worse when Avila began work on his discussion at 11 AM...and I do think an eye is forming. Mind you I did not need models to tell me she was going to eventually get it together. I didn't really notice the models on Michael that pushed the hand of the NHC to upgrade him when he looked pathetic days ago. That is the beauty of models, they do show us things that are hard to see especially when we are focused elsewhere... my focus was on Leslie and not a small group of clouds in the Atlantic that became a Category 3 down the road... while Leslie remained parked in the middle of the Atlantic Tropical Road.

That said... here's an interesting model loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012090606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Ever play that game online where it says to follow how many times the ball is passed while you watch people play basketball and you are so intent on counting the times the ball is passed you miss the
Gorilla walking through the players?

That loop above is a similar game. While watching Leslie move towards Nova Scotia did you notice the new storm forming in the Atlantic Ocean?

Though the GFS has done a great job with Leslie in ways...

other models showed Michael forming and becoming strong

check this older model below .. from a few days ago showing Michael forming

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012090406-leslie12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation 

Some models develop something in the Gulf and show it tracking across Florida, following Leslie

Loop the link and see how this plays out:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012090600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

For those of you who don't appreciate that Nova Scotia ... click on this link and plan a trip:

http://www.novascotia.com/en/home/default.aspx

Leslie still has a chance of affecting areas in Cape Cod, Maine and most likely in Nova Scotia.. 

see NHC wind probabilities:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT2.shtml

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

As for Michael, small but mighty Michael stays out to sea...

Good Discussion, however hard to understand without classes in meteorology

then again... it's made for professionals

then again....that's why people like to read my blog

i make sense of the official mumbo jumbo discussion ;)

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

Now... on the to the Gulf of Mexico:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED. 
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

I'll be back later as things develop, but for now locally all eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico which has potential to create strong weather over Florida while Leslie spins at sea.

Big question...is there any chance that Leslie really  misses the trough?

How long can she sit and spin?

She is beautiful to watch from far away 

and ... enjoyed feeling her wind even far away at the beach yesterday!

Besos Bobbi