Leslie Begins Moving SLOWLY... Hibernia Oil Fields in the Cross Hairs

Leslie really doesn't look so badly ... if i just read the discussion I'd think she was in worse shape than she looks and she is STILL forecast to intensify once she begins moving away from the cooler waters that are a result of upwelling from Leslie parking herself for so long over the same spot.

The big news here is that Leslie is STARTING to move towards the North at 4 knots.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS. 

SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER
THESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE
INTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN
THE DEEP TROPICS. 

STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
SINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html



Discussion on Michael shows two things... one he's moving a bit, looks not so great or could look better and may briefly move more to the WNW than previously predicted.

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PROBABLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE
HURRICANE COULD MOVE BRIEFLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST IN THE 48-96 HR TIME RANGE TO COME CLOSER TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST...WITH MORE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING ENOUGH
SEPARATION FROM LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL CURVES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS. 

What worries me is that both Michael and Leslie seem to be making plans to meet up in the far North Atlantic. Though I have no problems with tropical love affairs... this one would affect oil fields way up in the North Atlantic that most people do not know is there...

Hurricane Michael's wind probabilities:

                                                                    
 HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)
 HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

Tropical Storm Leslie's wind probabilities:

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

The point is that is a big problem. Not that they are not used to dealing with bad weather, but it does put them on a possible alert to deal with a storm ... the second time that oil production somewhere has been disrupted or affected as Isaac affected the oil rigs in the Gulf. 

I'm just trying to point out that just because it's not a big sexy city like Hong Kong or New Orleans, does not mean that there is nothing there to be affected. If a tree falls in a forest...  a tree is dead

On other fronts... there is still an area in the Gulf that is being watched and an area off of Africa that needs to be watched as well ...down the road... when the road starts moving again...

... 

Stay tuned and keep watching.

The frontal boundary is moving slowly and that will pick up tomorrow and that will pick up Leslie and get her moving again.

See the front moving towards the coast... 

Note...IF you are going to the ocean to watch the waves... be careful.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernia_oil_field

Besos Bobbi

Ps... I'll be back Saturday night with more information and thoughts.

Funny how far south she has been this whole time, hopefully she will miss Bermuda!