Hurricane Harbor: 3 Systems in the Tropics.. Compare & Contrast Canadian Hurricane Centre with the NHC

3 Systems in the Tropics.

I'm going to do something different today and show the Canadian discussion on the Hurricane Leslie as Leslie is forecast to affect them in some way directly once she starts moving. Again, it is the steering currents that are locked, frozen and weak vs Leslie as storms are just big tropical pebbles in the stream and they move in sync with the steering currents and atmospheric winds. We are waiting in the Northern Hemisphere for Autumn to begin, and it should begin later this week. There are pumpkins on display at my Kroger out front and different color mums. The night time temps are going down into the 50s later this week... once the front passes and when that happens Leslie and Michael will feel the call of the North.

Compare and contrast a bit how different the Canadian Hurricane Center is similar, but different from the National Hurricane Center.

A current image of wind profiles for the projected path of the two storms is below, this may update in real time so don't be surprised if you reread this blog this in a few days and see a different forecast.

[Image of probabilities of 50 knot winds]

Canadian Hurricane Center:

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACCELERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS SPANNING NOVA SCOTIA, NEWFOUNDLAND, AND
BYPASS OFFSHORE. THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS CROSSES THROUGH
NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT SEVERAL
TIMES WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS. IF LESLIE MAKES LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS 'COLD-WATER UPWELLING' AND 'HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING' RESULTING FROM THE HURRICANE ITSELF THAT THE
COMPUTER MODELS CAN SOMETIMES FAIL TO PREDICT. IN FACT, THESE
EFFECTS SEEM TO ALREADY BE AT PLAY AS OF EARLY TODAY. THE RANGE OF
SCENARIOS MAY BE EVEN BROADER THAN THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE NOW.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/

Hurricane Track Information

Great discussion, really down to earth... scientific and clean yet anyone can understand it. Superior, detailed graphics as seen above. The discussion goes on to warn people of high surf and strong winds that are already being felt on the beaches there.

Compare and contrast a page from the NHC's discussion for the same storm and note it is one of several paragraphs with in depth analysis that is perhaps too deep these days. I want more bottom linen in my discussion. Bryan Norcross, wrote a long, public letter complaining about the way Isaac was handled and I can't say he was wrong. I will post it another day when we don't have 2 systems meandering around in busted steering currents.

NHC:

SATELLITE FIXES AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 SUGGEST
THAT LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A STEADIER NORTHWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF LESLIE BEGINS
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. AFTER 48 HOURS...AN ACCELERATION
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS LESLIE
INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED FASTER AND LEFT TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE END
RESULT IS THAT THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

In case you are not familiar with that region of the world it is a HUGE tourist destination. I'd say "big" but big would be an understatement. People who love cooler weather beaches, rocky shores and wide open spaces love Nova Scotia. I have several friends who go hiking there, go to the Bay of Fundy and rave about it as much as the famous European ports of call. And, when it comes to European... Nova Scotia seems to have that feel as it is very British and very Irish, covering a lot of bases that many people like to cover when traveling.

Beautiful video below, please click on this link ... it's short, quick and one of the best travel videos I've seen in a long time; especially for brevity and giving you a tantalizing taste of a place you have probably never thought of to add to your travel wish list.

http://youtu.be/NTbJhNuCLR

Moving on to Michael... the NHC has this to say. A well put retread of previous discussion.

MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE STEERING FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
MICHAEL AND A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.

Sort of says it all....

An added note here on another Michael. Many people have asked me, including my own kids, who Mike is from SpaghettiModels.com and when things were slow yesterday he posted this link on his Facebook. If you go to about 25 minutes into the video you will see Mike and watch him explain how his site got started and a bit about him and a bit about how many of us who are not professional mets discuss the weather together.

His Facebook page is also listed if you have not joined the discussion.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Mikes-Weather-Page/88134562366

My page for tropical discussion vs family things is:
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

We do love to discuss the weather, here, there and everywhere :)

Who's Mike? I got 15 seconds of fame with Denis during Isaac. Fast forward to 25 minutes if you want to see me.http://www.livestream.com/abcactionnewsweatherchat/video?clipId=pla_664d7598-8bb7-4498-aada-1a9d55dce3e9

Tonight's chat, a bit of everything!

As for the area in the Gulf that major media markets have been hyping as the Son of Isaac.... let's go to Mike's Page on Facebook and see the logical, level headed discussion:

I'm not saying I don't go elsewhere for news, obviously I do but I like to see what Mike has to say and I'm on Facebook anyway. For those of you who don't know, and I don't talk on it publicly too much, I have ten children from a previous marriage....suffice it to say I'm on Facebook A LOT. I may as well do weather while I am there.

The Navy site shows the Invest from Isaac's remnants is not expected to move anywhere, anytime soon. Which means obviously it is not strengthening enough to be picked up by the front that would have dragged it across South Florida. Another sign of the steering currents being weak.

Another change in the way we discuss weather these days and access information is Twitter. I get the best information in real time from Twitter including from the NHC who twitters their new advisories before they update them on their website.

A few examples from Twitter below. You can find me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm