Chris Downgraded, Debby Developing
There is a strong upper level low off the East coast of Florida. There was more dry air to the north, but that is slowly going away as moisture from the system itself is moving north into the area. This system has already been a huge rainmaker over most of South Florida and Cuba.
There is a low to the W over Texas, but it's not as strong as the one to the east and it seems to be retrograding away.
The front looks amazingly strong as it dives down fast, someone somewhere is gonna have really bad weather tomorrow when the hot, hot, hot meets the relatively cold temps. Then again, I can't believe this front is not going to wimp out and it's not going to be a long term factor. On the other hand, it could be a short term factor pulling it north before it goes west or NE... a lot of hands here in the batter.
Also, wondering if a low of sorts is going to form to the north of our struggling system.
So much depends on this front and so much depends on timing, as usual.
I see the European model, but I don't like flip flop models and until I see a few more runs showing the same thing I have a problem with such a dramatic flip flop. Split the difference and Debby goes North.
Look at 12 hours ago and see how different the ULL in the Atlantic look compared to the current image:
Current Image... much stronger...
A lot going on... a lot of different models, a lot of different explanations.
And, as always everything is relative. Several NWS long term forecasts highlight how it could be a problem for their area. The only problem is, they are all in vastly different areas.
SUN-MON...FCST CONTINUES TO HINGE ON HOW THE GOMEX LOW EVOLVES.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DVLP AND PUSH
ACRS FL. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO DVLP...TRACK AND SPEED
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 25KTS...
SEAS AT 8FT...BUT FCST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ATTM. SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
NWS discussion out of Melbourne (above) tends to be excellent. They are in Melbourne Florida though so they will be different from say Houston.
Key West Discussion:
ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS AS THIS SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFIES SLOWLY
IN THE GULF...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE KEYS...GIVEN INSTABILITY AND BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TYPICALLY ON THE OUTSIDE OF ORGANIZING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
BUT THEN THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY EMERGE
THEREAFTER...AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT
ALLOWS FOR A GROWING SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO ENCOUNTER SOME
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LATITUDINAL TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND BEGINS TO TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
LATEST TWO FROM NHC SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AIR FORCE RECON WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IN 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT WITH POOR AGREEMENT OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AFTER THAT. THE MAIN FACTOR IN STEERING THE SYSTEM WILL BE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST...AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM AND TAKE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...OR IF THE SYSTEM GETS LEFT BEHIND IN THE GULF TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
So... I do think it's interesting to note that as of now... the Texas forecast discussion seems to feel it will go East. Even though the new models question that.
But, models change faster than leaves on an October afternoon in Vermont.
The next named storm is Debby with a Y not an IE. Floors me to see how many "professional met" blogs there are out there online who keep referring to this storm as Debbie. If they can't get that simple fact right, how carefully have they actually researched this system or do they just rewrite the NWS discussion?
Enjoy the song, inspired by this afternoon's blog... and Go Heat.
Everybody has a cousin in Miami ... some people just have more cousins than others ;)