Pay Attention to the Area South of Cuba... (a classic BobbiStorm post)

I'm wondering why that area south of Cuba keeps blowing up and being a Miami girl ...any area of strong, persistent convection south of Cuba catches my eye. I might name it Carlos for fun as a private joke, seems to want a name. But, that's not the game plan and it's really being written off officially as a temporary illusion to a problem that needs a solution. But, every six hours the game plan is rewritten when the NHC gives out their round up of thoughts on the Tropical Atlantic.

Personally I'm wondering why that area south of Cuba keeps blowing up and as my main priority is South Florida and then other coastal cities up the road ...any area of strong, persistent convection south of Cuba catches my eye. I might name it Carlos for fun as a private joke, as it seems to want a name.

My prediction: There will be a new Invest on the Navy site centered broadly over the yellow area in the Caribbean. Note..it now has a circle on the NHC Home Page.

Sitting outside this morning early before it gets to hot and humid, sipping a Nespresso and staring at the Water Vapor Loop. (Yes, that's capitalized, in my life it's a really important entity that compares with the Brooklyn Bridge, Statue of Liberty and possibly the Eiffel Tower.)

Why the Water Vapor Loop?

Remember that scene in the Wizard of Oz where they look in the crystal ball and Dorothy sees Auntie Em crying out looking for her...

The Water Vapor Loop is my own personal crystal ball. It shows me the Upper Level Low forming in the Gulf that is interacting nicely with the area of explosively, developing weather in the Caribbean south of Cuba. For now anyway... shows me the possibilities, the trends...the reasons behind what we see on other loops. It also shows me what is breathing down it's back and might make it fizzle later in the day.

Yes, other loops come to mind. Model loops, which are like Shakespeare's inconstant fickle moon.

"O, swear not by the moon, the fickle moon, the inconstant moon, that monthly changes in her circle orb, Lest that thy love prove likewise variable"  Insert the word "models" here and you get the same result...

Some newer loops have been added to my morning repertoire, one of them being what was originally jokingly named the Juice Loop by one of my friends.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

There's a roll forming down in the Caribbean, it "bears watching"...  to quote another weather friend, or possibly the same one... it's all beginning to merge together like the messy weather down in the Carib into one big funny blob of memories. 

Note...weather people are at heart News Junkies. We just have our priorities, weather first, then comes geology and then we move on to the real stuff... twitter news feed from RT (Russia Today), CNN or FOX, the Morning Joe on MSNBC and eventually we get around to the local news. Except in Florida where the local news always becomes the national news eventually. Every big story always has a Miami angle, odd but true.

Case in point...this is the list on the Drudge Report for your immediate connect to any breaking natural disaster. See... weather, local weather, earthquakes. I rest my case.

WEATHER ACTION
USA RADAR ROLL
QUAKE SHEET

Now what this has to do with today's tropics is that even with a crystal ball, a magic wand and the ghost of John Hope up in meteorological heaven no one seems to be able to predict what will happen in the Caribbean today, yet everyone believes something will happen soon. The NHC put a big yellow circle over most of the area and sees to have a watch and wait attitude. 

Everyone is ignoring the large pink elephant (or purple in this case) that is south of Cuba and looks to be pulling itself together, sucking in all the energy around it.  I'm not ignoring it. I'm a Miami girl, as I put another spoonful of Publix Guava Pastry yogurt into my mouth slowly and savor the flavor and watch this little persistent area of troubled, tropical weather continue to blow up and look like a developing system. 

The big money is on the greater, broader area moving slowly into the Gulf via a Westward track...this little system however doesn't seem to want to go west. Perhaps it will shimmy around a bit and eventually get caught up in some west bound wave moving into the Carib and wrap itself together in some sort of pseudo, meteorological Karma Sutra move and suddenly voila Chris :)

Hey, it's possible. Any thing's possible in the Caribbean today as the Gale Center formerly known as the next possibly named system chugs off into colder waters for a tango with Great Britain.

Meanwhile in Miami.... we will start feeling the effects of this area as moisture begins to move over the area with periods of heavy rain. 

Keep watching.

Things are getting funky. Some "hot towers" forming in bright green on the funktop this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ft.html

My advice:  Loop this loop to the sounds of Funky Town and sit back and relax, nothings going to happen in the next 12 hours... nothing except everyone trying to ignore the area south of Cuba and debating what to eat for lunch and dinner.

Besos Bobbi

Loop this WATER VAPOR Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

to this funky tune: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liuCTk2nPG8  (lyrics say so much...)

 and have a great day.. remember to smile at random strangers ;)

And, remember you could read my blog or you could read this:

"GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED 
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N98W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE 
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF TO 
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W. 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH 
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE 
INTO THE SE GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA 
MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S 
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THEN DRIFT NW TO 
NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E GULF."

:)