Summer Solstice Storm

There's a lot going on out there. The Atlantic and it's adjacent seas and straits is simmering slowly waiting for something to spin and when the right ingredients come together we should have at least one named system by the Summer Solstice on Wednesday.

The area south of Jamaica draws my attention as it's not going quietly out to see like the swirl in the Atlantic that now has a yellow 20% circle on the NHC's morning map. Discussion shows they expect to possibly upgrade this system sooner rather than later. Their discussion is below.

My thoughts:

What is interesting is that the area in the North Atlantic is being fed tropical energy via a long train of tropical moisture which is linked to the tropical trough in the Caribbean spoken about last night. It's all one big moving river of air, swirling north, trudging west and then northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes it swirls, or oozes and then begins to twist into a tight ball indicating cyclonic formation. Sometimes energy gets cut off and cold, drier air becomes caught up in a developing system and other times it just gets cut off or goes flat. Each day is different, each day unique.

One area not going flat is the area South of Jamaica in the Caribbean which is obviously being kept on back burner right now. Keep watching it.

As the models have been indicating that moisture in the Carib will be moving towards the Gulf and Florida. It hasn't found it's groove but it will. For now we are watching the North Atlantic with one eye and the other eye remains anchored in the true tropics down in the Caribbean.

The area of disturbed weather south of Haiti is oozing north and that train of moisture if feeding what could become Chris in the North Atlantic. Nothing is set in stone with the water vapor loop and time will tell that story.

A note on the models. They still show South Florida being affected by bad weather or a storm but now some models take a storm across South Florida from the southwest, whereas other models show a small, system forming off it's East Coast. The latter model mind set would be more consistent with this season so far, but as always in the tropics....patterns change so keep watching.

The wave rolling off of Africa shows a consistent wave train with big, large waves well spaced apart. That is worth noting. That spacing gives them time to develop down the line as they move west. The last wave is now half way across the Atlantic, naked of real moisture but it's form can still be seen on the visible imagery.

But, each part of the basin has it's time and this is the time for storms off the Carolinas to form and for Caribbean Cruisers to move north towards landfall, not Cape Verde time...that time will come later in the season and probably earlier this year than other years.

Keep watching... the official word is

A WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT.

Besos Bobbi

Ps
Thought for the day: 

As always, the tropics provide an ever changing show 

with twists and turns not always predictable.