South Florida Storm? Gulf Storm? Atlantic Subtropical? What a difference a day makes...

Really what a difference a day makes...

While checking on the area in the Gulf of Mexico the area south of Haiti pops out on the map and screams for attention. I'd laugh it off.. but there is some model support for a storm forming from this area down the road... the not so distant road.

A wave coming off of Africa makes you forget it's June and go "oh my goodness" and the imagination starts to scream "Cape Verde" which is basically a dream... for now..bust still, oh what a wave. It's waving...

CMC shows it sitting off the coast of Miami in 84 hours or so... headed north along the coast of Florida into the favored area of landfall this season...South Carolina.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012061712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The models are all a little weird tonight. 

Development in the Gulf seems on hold, but worth watching. The BOC shows possibilities. Another subtropical wannabe out in the Atlantic and now... suddenly there is weather in the Carib.

Will it be there tomorrow? 

Sort of like this Heat game... the lead comes, it goes, it comes back... no models... just watching the clock tick down.

The area of interest has been written into the Miami Weather Forecast Discussion. 

".AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDA

WEATHER. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY INTO REST OF THE WEEK A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
CWA FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE
2 INCHES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE LATER FORECAST MODELS
THEN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COULD BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY ABOUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COMING UP FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK."

Will have to see what the NHC says tomorrow... will they blink or ignore it waiting a little longer?

It's not about fast flashes of color, it's about persistent color and upper level support and model support and rising to the challenges... maybe tonight it's just rain headed towards South Florida. Maybe tomorrow it's a possible tropical system.

Either way, this seems to be the year of development close in ...near land.  So far..

Miami Wins... Heat Win! Wow...good game, again what a difference a day makes in the tropics.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi