MJO, SAL and A Lot of Intangibles
A lot of intangibles. That is what hits me the most tonight.
A tremendous amount of tropical moisture with multiple areas of possible development. Or, maybe nothing will develop. Most likely something will..
Murky mess tonight.
A small spin on the water vapor loop in the Gulf where the northern blue circle is in the Gulf just north of the Yucatan. However, there is a bigger spin on other loops showing something possibly forming east of the Yucatan and south of Cuba.
Oh, there is the Invest in the far NORTH Atlantic that I really hope the NHC does not waste the name Chris on . . . . Yes, they have gales in the area, yes there are shipping routes, yes the water is cold enough to put in your coca cola as ice cubes for a hot summer day in Miami. Come on... seriously? Doesn't even look that healthy tonight, even though they keep upping the odds.
A lot depends on where this Carib/Gulf system forms... as to where it could or would go.
A strong high will push it west. Then again there is one strong, set up of a moisture train across Florida that could take it across the state and oddly form in the same backyard that gave us Alberto and Beryl.
A few models even take a system north ...
Just draw a big bulls eye on the Gulf of Mexico and tell everyone to "listen up and pay attention" just in case.
The MJO is hovering over this whole area, making it ripen fast.