Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 18, 2012

MJO, SAL and A Lot of Intangibles

A lot of intangibles. That is what hits me the most tonight.

A tremendous amount of tropical moisture with multiple areas of possible development. Or, maybe nothing will develop. Most likely something will..

Murky mess tonight.

A small spin on the water vapor loop in the Gulf where the northern blue circle is in the Gulf just north of the Yucatan. However, there is a bigger spin on other loops showing something possibly forming east of the Yucatan and south of Cuba.

Oh, there is the Invest in the far NORTH Atlantic that I really hope the NHC does not waste the name Chris on . . . .  Yes, they have gales in the area, yes there are shipping routes, yes the water is cold enough to put in your coca cola as ice cubes for a hot summer day in Miami. Come on... seriously? Doesn't even look that healthy tonight, even though they keep upping the odds.

A lot depends on where this Carib/Gulf system forms... as to where it could or would go.

A strong high will push it west. Then again there is one strong, set up of a moisture train across Florida that could take it across the state and oddly form in the same backyard that gave us Alberto and Beryl.

A few models even take a system north ...

Just draw a big bulls eye on the Gulf of Mexico and tell everyone to "listen up and pay attention" just in case.

The MJO is hovering over this whole area, making it ripen fast.

In the far Atlantic over by Africa...there is a lot of SAL, a negative no go for development, and water temps are still too cold but there have been some great waves.

You can see this by running this loop. The big, beautiful wave coming off of Africa fizzles the moment it hits the water. You need sizzle for tropical development. An older wave though is beginning to flare up as it approaches the warmer waters of 50W. Nothing happening, just more fun to watch than the Gale Center in the Northern Atlantic.

What will happen?

Something most likely will develop, one area will win out and grab the energy from the other areas and we will have a new Invest and more models will be run and no matter what happens we should have a lot of wet, windy weather in South Florida.

Of course, if something were to wrap up all the energy out there and develop fast then maybe South Florida will be less soggy, less flooded and those boys from Oklahoma City will get to a bit more of our beautiful Florida sunshine. Wouldn't count on anything happening too fast.

Worth noting... a massive Heat Wave is moving into areas that have been enjoying cooler than normal temperatures.. specifically the Carolinas ... Georgia... the Southeast. 

Everything is of note when you watch the weather, every factor comes into play down the road one way or the other.

Keep watching. Sweet Tropical Dreams, 



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