Tropics, Short & Sweet
Short and sweet because I am going to the beach. Rain or shine, I don't care... am going to the beach and going to stare at the water and feel the wind and enjoy the Summer Solstice. Any excuse is a good one. And, a little rain should not exactly deter someone who has chased storms so....
Chris is up in the shipping lanes, and as I am not predicting weather for shipping companies or currently involved with anyone doing shipping business... I'll leave that to the NHC and NWS... minimal at best, possibly going to loop around a bit for a day or so at some point..might tap into some warmer water and a drop of tropical energy and then go off to see the Queen.
The area in the Carib... oh what can I say that I have not said already? Models consistently develop "something" and take it either north into the Mobile/Tallahassee area or curve it more NE into the regions north of Tampa...or there abouts. I would not freak if I lived in Tampa, a city way, way, way, WAY overdue for a real Hurricane but it might be a taste of things to come later in the season. It's high up on Jim William's list of cities with a moderate risk for this coming year. http://hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm
I do think there will be something in the Bay of Campeache/West Gulf at some point. My problem is I don't think it's going to be spawned from this particular area. Models show two storms depending on which model you look at and some models show another storm forming once again off the Carolinas... possibly the same storm crossing over the State of Florida. The models are really playing with the area over the western part of Cuba vs the larger one to the east, just so you know but really who knows for sure? When models make no sense and act as if they are missing something, the best thing to do is ...go to the beach and come back six hours or so later and see if they make more sense. And, watch what is really happening in the tropics.
Predicting Tropical Weather can be sometimes a slight of hand game, now you see it... now you don't, oh there it is again.
Otherwise... it's HOT. Very hot. And, with such a strong high locked over the East and South I have problems seeing a system barrel into it ...however a few models show a tropical system busting down that high. After 3 days of extreme heat you will be thrilled to see a weak tropical storm do so..trust me.
Speaking of the HEAT...they won last night :) Glad to be a citizen of Wade County :)
And, speaking of rain... Key West broke an all time record for single day rainfall. One of Key West's better known secrets is oddly that it doesn't get a lot of rain. Oh it rains, but not like in Southwest Miami or in Tampa. Storms often miss the small island and often it gets into a groove where it's dry, beautiful with a very fast passing shower making it truly... a paradise that equals any paradise in any part of the world. Mind you, back when my great-grandparents lived there without air-conditioning and no running water they up and left for the summer months, everyone did.... looked more like a Western Town in the Tropics.
Legend has it that my great-grandfather (think one great) and possibly a Great Aunt or Uncle are in this picture. Far from the way it looks now, but there were palm trees and a breeze and rarely did a Hurricane make landfall directly...because...it would be like threading the eye of a needle on the first try. :)
Keep watching the reality show in the tropics.... something tropical this way comes....eventually.
Sweet Tropical Dreams...
Ps... great pic on the cover of www.flhurricane.com where I post as LoisCane... great site, love the people and the links and good analysis ... check it out. Keep watching that area over the Yucatan as well as south of Cuba.