Tish B'Av Sunday/TD10 laying low going west.. Irene still there

Hi.

Want to say a few things to my friends here tropically.

One... I still think Irene can and might impact some part of the United States and don't think her going out to sea w/o an impact is a lock. Easy money is to go with recurvature. Won't bring much of a return money wise either. Sort of like placing a $2 bet for a jai alai player to show ... you might win but you aren't going to win much except the victory of saying, "I WON, I WON!!" I'm not much of a gambler, rarely gamble ever and when I do its more of a $2 show bet just to say I did. I do enjoy Jai Alai and rarely go. Used to go with my father when I was young. He loved Jai Alai. He went to the Dogs because as a mathematician I think he loved figuring it out and he said you could make money from dogs faster than people.. people have he would aay "a shitty day, a fight with their wife... problem with their car and get to the Fronton and have it affect their otherwise perfect game" but with a dog... you know what you have going into it... a dog runs with less affecting his game.

So Yes.. it is easy to say Irene is so far north, still far east.. she will recurve. Duh. Well, so let's call it a day and stop watching her since we seem to know how to predict the future and needed bother watching. What is going on today in Golf?

We watch because we love it and we watch to learn. And, its the ones that don't follow the game plan written in the textbooks that usually cause us the most grief.

I am not a wishcaster. My brother down the block is.. His response to Irene looking to go more west on Friday morning than shown by advisories was, "Is she North of our lat?" Mind you he isn't even paying attention though he insists he loves hurricanes and weather because he heard early on it's a fish. Got annoyed, told him that I didn't think it was going to hit Florida.. I watch either way." He laughed a maniacle laugh and said immediately, "I don't. I only watch if they are coming here." RAH-NEEEE how I used to call him when young and he broke my albumns.. is a wishcaster. He will take any storm cell to the S, SW or SE of us and find fifteen reasons it will hit.. if he can. He also folds like a Yankee fan immediately as soon as the NHC says its a fish. He only lives for the high rush energy of a storm coming in this way. Ronnie, not Ron only wants devastation at high noon on a Florida Beach after he has spent at least $500 in junk food, water and rushed around like a chicken without a head for 24 hours before landfall. He is a classic wischcaster. I am not.

Why do I think Irene could still impact the East Coast.. upper East coast? Because its early August... fronts are as unreliable as a fifteen year old boyfriend when you are out of town and a sexy new girl is visiting down the street. Or change the sexes.. works both ways.. by the way. Because the heat in the NE and along the Mid-Atlantic cries out for a hit this summer...if not Irene..along will come another. Because there still is a pattern of fronts pulling across the northern part of NE and out to sea that pulled in many, many late season Noreasters this Spring. Because Fenway Park yesterday had to be evacuated due to strong thunderstorm and everyone was told to get inside (according to my son reading in the Miami Herald) and I watched that cell dance it's way across Vermont where a good friend of mine lives yesterday. Wyoming had snow.. yes.. high up and Wyoming is far to the north. All it will take this summer is one strong high building in with a storm far enough under it meandering under its strong effects and being anchored too close to the eastern seaboard and a low pressure system far inland to the north wanting to pull that tropical storm in towards the Coastline. And, the more extreme the weather gets the more chances there are of something extremely crazy happening... not according to the text book. Textbooks will tell you that New York City rarely gets more than a few feet of snow. They will also tell you of the famous snowfall that buried NYC. Textbooks will tell you that hurricanes rarely come inland as strong storms and rarely ever hit Long Island or Rhode Island or any island up that way but they will also go on and on and on for pages about the Great Long Island Hurricane, won't they? Those same textbooks. They state the rules..they state the exceptions.

I find it a bit hard to belive that if Irene was going to give up and go gently out to sea without causing any drama that she wouldn't have done so already. She has proven to be a fighter, has been written off many times and as I see it.. still has a chance.

As for TD10.. can hardly find discussion on it by the NHC as much more than a PS.

There is a wave... s of TD 10 that looks interesting.

And, as for writing off TD 10..well ....because he/she is not much more than a wave... he/she will go west against the forecasted movement projected previously by the NHC and if he/she continues to do that he/she can be a player down the road.. can't he/she? You know stay alive long enough you have your day in court, your chance at 15 minutes of fame... chance to win the game. So.. as we sort of laugh at how they rushed to give it a designation... it may surprise us. Would be sort of ironically funny if this turned out to be Bastardi's gulf coast system.

Either way.. I call it a he/she not to make deeply sexual references like something from a bad pop up ad online... but because we just simply don't know. IF it sits out there fumbling around talking to itself and the one below develops or a wave further out develops there is no way of saying for sure this is the next Guy storm... could just as easily be the next girl one? Who made this list? A fan of One Life to Live?

So..we watch.

All I know is the heat here in Miami has been memorable on a par with 1992.

On the out of the box note... crystals and Cleo note... tomorrow ends the Mercury retrograde that has gone on for the last 3 weeks and has seen a drastic disapeerance of any real exciting tropical trouble. Sort of like Mother nature was playing dead, taking a 3 weekend sabbatical and refusing to play along with those forecasters who all issued higher numbers. Yes, we did have TD10 finally come along but by the parameters I grew up with she was no tropical depression. I'm from the old Bob Sheets school and John Hope and there was no rush to designate back then. I know because I used to get so frustrated when some "wave" looked like a Tropical Storm on the way to an eye and they hung tough.. waited and waited. Things sure have changed around there...this year especially.

Things do change.

The world changes.. can someone explain to me why my Compaq bought in 1997 at Circuit City that has Windows 95 on it and is still able to get online aol5.0 for mail or juno and do Instant Messages, play a great game of Snood is still able to work and I have been through 2 emachines and some other cast off IBM and all the 97/93, windowsME and XP versions that do not do as well as the old compaq with the windows 95. Yes..now we can do all sorts of things with computers but you suddenly need to pay for high speed, cable or dsl access to load a loop that I used to load (same loop.. not fancier java ones) without having enough time to bake a carrot cake, clean my ears and paint my nails???? I'm sorry.. I'm missing something here and getting screwed over by internet providers who are offering dsl but make it REAL clear you are only paying for the low level and probably need the medium or high to really download faster than Dial up.

But, I have all sorts of pop up adware on my computer which gets past every firewall and program around. Yes. I can surf from "Good Websites" to "legalize marijuana" to "passion.com" and POKEROWNSTHEWORLD.COM and our attempt to get rid of the passion.com got me to BigChurch.com a way to meet singles... oh and the rEDNOvA site with the article about Stephen King spelt funny will not go away.. sort of a high brow adware if you ask me. The article looks really good.. if I didn't want to kill both Stephen and Ed and this point.. I mean REDNOVA then maybe I would read it.

My laptop is in the shop and I hate that laptop. I don't even want it resurrected :( No.. I do..as a back up so that when I need to I can go on.

So.. if I don't post on www.hurricanecity.com much today it's because I can't get on. For some reason it shuts me down faster than flhurricane.com which I have used mostly to see what Clark says and what Steve guy says Bastardi says.

Going to read the paper. Going to look through sales for laptops and then try and re-whatever you do with this computer and hope it works like new again. hahaha. Told myself I would never buy another emachine and did.. I deserve this. Something about their little E4ME sticker on the old one really used to piss me off royally.

Today is Tish B'Av. It is the 9th day of the Jewish Month of Av. A bad day in history.... very bad looking back and looking bad this morning for whoever was on that Cypriot Plane that fell apart when it crashed into the mountain top in Greece with the Greek Fighter planes watching (will they sleep tonight) and bits and pieces of the defrosting crew and wreckage all over the beautiful mountain top. The whole movement to expell the settlers in Israel was put off on purpose til tomorrow when Tish B'Av and the 9 days are past. Funny how a major policy of a government was put off til the karma was a little lighter.. rolling eyes.. what I learned in a book called Blink is a sign of disrespect (sorry Burns, I love you..when I roll my eyes I don't mean it that way) and ... well... not very pretty scenario. My son Shuky who is home this summer from Israel and wants to go back for Sukkos gave me a whole lesson in the mess.. which being not the biggest Zionist I have avoided. He said its a lose/lose situation because... we aren't supposed to be in Gaza from a biblical point of view and yet it is against the judaic law for jews to be evicted from their homes by other jews... Jews are not supposed to take up arms against another Jew especially to evict them from their home. Glad he is here... he loves Gush however you spell it in English.. loves oranges from there and the whole place but he is not very politically involved and for that I am happy as he is the one with the urge to be in Israel these days. Too many hot heads and heavy hearts and burning issues tearing apart the place. A house divided from within will never stand.. first rule of PolySci and should be Psychology 101 but we are humans and we do stupid things for all the right reasons. More houses have stayed together for the right reasons (in their mind) and taught horrible lessons to their children on why a marriage should stay together and a level of abuse and unhappiness a person should suffer through. Use that for life or for countries..works the same.

Sometimes it is time to stand up, look around, smell the coffee (which I'd kill for right now), move on, make a change, apologize, forgive.. move on and start over somewhere else with some one else than to keep banging you head against a wall in the name of "the right thing" and maybe we don't need to be in Gaza.. maybe I am a bad person to ask. When someone talks about the Promised Land I think of a Willie Nelson song. When someone talks of a lost empire.. I think of Atlantis. When someone starts off with the thoughts of something rising up again... into a great nation I think of.. "The South Shall Rise Again."

My jewish genes are here but they are a bit short circuited I guess like this computer.

So..while I sit here contemplating the really good weather discussion I had last night on Instant Message with an old time weather buddy and how I may go to Starbucks to break my fast.. and play hit the pop up ads like I am back in L.A. in the 80s on the old Radio Shack Color Computer playing Baloons...

I wish you all..anyone fasting an easy fast. I will watch TD10 because it isn't playing by the rules ..though it is.. by John Hope's rules.. he said a weak tropical system will go west... he didn't get taken in by these last set of model runs.

IF the model runs for TD10 that turned it into a big hurricane fast were wrong.. maybe models for Irene are wrong. Hmmmmmnn.

Lastly..haven't been able to get on hurricity w/o the computer freezing but will say this to Jim.. Yes the models for Andrew showed it could hit Florida but would most likely recurve..they didn't say a lot about the Carolina's but EVERY weather anchor (except Norcross) in Miami ALL kept insisting the threat IF there was a landfall and IF it didn't recurve would be towards the Carolinas and not Florida. Because..they went with the NHC who discounted the Florida models in favor of recurvature until the information showed that the high was building in and the Florida models were on the money. They may not have shown Carolina models... but the media in Miami played up the Carolinas big time as the place that might get hit..whereas Miami was written off as having a nice weekend, maybe some strong winds later in the forecast period as Andrew departed the area. Check in on Sunday Night to see what is happening with Andrew.

So... we will see what Irene does.. and TD10 and any others that come along.

Take care..have a safe weekend.. Bobbi
and smile...better to have laugh lines when you get older than those grumpy frown ones at the bottom of your chin ;)

ps..will not check spelling as I am afraid I will miss a pop up and the computer will freeze again.