Hurricane Harbor: 115 MPH Rafael Outperforming Models & NHC Original Forecast Moving Towards Landfall in Cuba. Sometimes Models Like Polls Are Wrong. Stay Tuned. Tough Storm... Tenacious!

Rafael made landfall in Cuba

Currently crossing Cuba as a Cat 3.

Zoom Earth.

I like this view it shows the huge plume of moisture.

I'm going to say something here and be clear I'm not saying to ignore the NHC Cone, I'm saying that while the NHC tracks the "center" it will track it into the Gulf of Mexico until it's dead, dead, gone. But, the moisture while it's being shredded by wind shear and dealing with drier air ...the moisture will get pulled North into the frontal boundary that is sliding slowly from West to East across the USA. Well part of it and another part may get into the Gulf of Mexico. It's hard to say what will be as models disagree and there's few analog storms to review that would compare. Florida will be rainy from a combo of ingredients. The Southeast in general will have moisture. And, some part of this Major Hurricane is forecast to move West shoved by the High Pressure and most models have it falling apart. I'd like to add, expect surprises as it's 2024!

Part of Rafael goes West.

Some of it gets pulled North.

It could loop in the GOM...

...or it could just fade away.

But today.... it's a Cat 3 over Cuba.

Wrote this in real time...

...so below is the 2 PM

Have a good evening.

Get some rest...

...we will see what will be soon.

* * *

2 PM in real time.

115 MPH

Life happens in real time.

Rafael over Cuba.

Tropics today, the morning after...

Yellow X still there, watch it.

Rafael stronger than ever!

Still going strong...

Why watch?

First up Rafael!

Currently forecast to be Cat 3

...before landfall!

Looks like a Cat 3 to me.

Honestly way stronger than NHC early forecasts.

Models showed that, many have talked on it.

But NHC playing catch up in real time.

One advisory package at a time.

Can cause severe flooding.

Death, destruction.

Basically 2024.

110 MPH!!!

Rafael outperformed expectations....

Cone takes a hard left hand turn.

The HIGH builds in...

You can see the huge wide High.

Just shoving Rafael along to the left.

Models are wonky run to run.

Sometimes models are right.

Other times like Polls wrong.

Time will tell with Rafael.

So many questions.

I got to sleep really, really late last night. Woke up really, really late this morning. Spoke long to a few of my kids, the other kids seem very quiet. Sky is blue in Raleigh and it's going to be a ridiculous 81 degrees today and weather is misbehaving all over the USA in different ways. Seasons in November with various weather systems clashing. Let's look below, down below. No...not Austraila but the EPAC as it seems Rafael may want to go down there for some reason.

TD 14E going ...um....the wrong way.