Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 09, 2024

Rainy Season Back for Florida!! Still Watching Long Range Models Take Long Shot Bets While EURO Plays It Safe and Shows Rain in All the Same Places.


There is nothing officially expected to form in the next 7 days as per the NHC. Let's keep that in mind, and remember that should something change they will introduce a lil yellow circle that shows 10%. Again that has not happened yet and the models show an ever changing array of possibilities for the 7 to 10 day period. There is actually more agreement in the models currently than you would expect if you are following the model wars online where everyone trashes the GFS and demands to know why they still use it. Both the Euro and the GFS show a surge of strong moisture up out of the Caribbean towards Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep colors splash the maps the models put out with heavy rain through the Florida Straits or in Florida Bay and Southwest Florida. 

This is the EURO for Thursday above.
Below there's the GFS on the same day.

If you line up the convection pockets and areas where the more intense rain may be, they are fairly close. The GOM is not moist and laden with thunderstorms in one model and in the other there is only clear weather days with barely a rain storm anywhere. There's quite a bit of agreement.

This is typical of June aka "too soon" according to the old rhyme, yet often Mother Nature throws us an a stormy curve ball. So we watch. But the real story here is the rain that some area in Florida will get the next week or so, steadily as in the Rainy Season is back in style even though it showed up a bit late for it's date. And, it's common to have the Rainy Season coincide with the beginning of the hurricane season when low pressure reigns in the basin and tropical waves chug westward, one after the other bringing more chances of tropical rain and possible tropical development if the shear relaxes and the elements align. See image at the end of the blog... 

Note the mustard yellow inside the other colors.
Note more so the little push into NW FL below.

The five day just shows rain across South Florida tapering off as we move up the state, I didn't show it as it looks the same as it did on Friday. Yet this longer range, far reaching rain models show a possible bend in action that "may" mean something tries to form and pulls North to that very favored spot in Climo for early tropical action. Could Texas and Louisiana see a hurricane in June? On any given day there's always a chance depending on shear and the location of the high and where that tropical system something forms but it's more likely the Eastern side of the GOM sees tropical action in mid to late June. Is it probable the GFS may take a wild guess on one run and slam a hurricane into a city in the Gulf of Mexico, sure that's totally possible but what in fact will really form and how strong will it really be...that is the question.

The GFS is a very long range model that is tasked with almost doing the impossible and looking deep into the future and recognizing trends that could give us early warning of a tropical cyclone forming and where it might go. It's not meant for you to write down in your weather journal "Category 1 Hurricane makes landfall near Mobile or to the East closer to Pensacola Bay and circle the date for your storm chasing party and then never look at a model again for a week. Every new model run changes some if not a lot. Not to say that couldn't happen, just saying..

The EURO is often too cautious and then eventually comes around to a bit of what the GFS is screaming on alternative runs and at some point it shows a good chance that somewhere from Destin to Apalachicola may see a tropical system.  

It's Sunday. Nothing is out there. There's nothing to track. I'm really not interested in how Cicadas are like Shrimp and how to cook them as they are showing on TWC currently and I'm not interested in politics this morning and making a shopping list for things I'll need for later this week as I have things going on. It's hot in the Carolinas with a chance of rain, sounds like Summer. I hate to tell my family in Miami and Hollywood that they will get slammed with rain this week as the Rainy Season is back with gusto.

The GFS does provide long range thrills.

June 25th GFS
The High pushes West.
and shoves a system West with it.

June 19th EURO
Puts an area of intense convection.
In the GOM as the High...
...keeps it West of FL.

The way you read the models is not to stare at how many lines are around a Low in 10 days but to watch the High Pressure and other features to the North that could help steer a possible Low, if anything forms. And, remember the further out in time a model goes the more chance for it to be wrong again GFS long range often makes landfall, EURO not as long range and barely shows development and I'm not even gonna talk on all the other models without a real there ...there! But, there are possibilities way down the tropical road. I doubt we get through June without a named storm. I'm guessing by mid week the pieces begin to come together. 

Have a good Sunday. If you see things on sale somewhere that may fit into your needs for your hurricane kit, buy them and stash them away where the kids or the roommate or you cannot sneak them when hungry and bored. 

As for me... I'm going shopping! 

Ps.... check this satellite image out. Connect the red dots...this set up will be around for a while and the ongoing, strong swimming tropical waves will provide more intrigue from the hyperactive GFS and trying to stay way too cool Euro!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,


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